| 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10,778 | 10,994 | 12,665 | 13,995 | | 增长率（%） | 21.0 | 2.0 | 15.2 | 10.5 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 1,552 | 1,592 | 1,859 | 2,063 | | 增长率（%） | 30.0 | 2.5 | 16.8 | 11.0 | | 每股收益（元） | 3.92 | 4.02 | 4.69 | 5.21 | | PE | 19 | 19 | 16 | 14 | | PB | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 资料来源：Wind，国联民生证券研究所预测；（注：股价为 2026 年 2 月 10 日收盘价） | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 75.51 元 | 珀莱雅（603605.SH）事件点评 上新红宝石微珠精华，建议关注后续新品表现 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 ...

珀莱雅（603605.SH）事件点评 上新红宝石微珠精华，建议关注后续新品表现 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 10 日 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 项目/年度 | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 10,778 | 10,994 | 12,665 | 13,995 | | 增长率（%） | 21.0 | 2.0 | 15.2 | 10.5 | | 归属母公司股东净利润（百万元） | 1,552 | 1,592 | 1,859 | 2,063 | | 增长率（%） | 30.0 | 2.5 | 16.8 | 11.0 | | 每股收益（元） | 3.92 | 4.02 | 4.69 | 5.21 | | PE | 19 | 19 | 16 | 14 | | PB | 5.5 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 3.1 | | 推荐 | 维持评级 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格： | 75.51 元 | [Table_Author] | ...

美护大涨，关注高成长与边际改善 20260205 摘要 2026 年配置思路应关注底部有积极变化的公司，2025 年新消费浪潮中， 超级白马股已企稳，受冲击后仍有机会，今年应关注低位且有积极变化 的公司。 预计 2026 年整体需求见底回升，外部冲击及补贴退坡影响已显现，若 房价企稳且 CPI 下半年上升，消费机会较大。行业轮动明显，节后关注 业绩成长性公司，化妆品板块基本面良好，跌幅较大公司基本见底。 珀莱雅、贝泰妮、正康口腔等公司值得关注，最悲观预期已反映在股价 中，出现积极变化股价会有明显表现。珀莱雅和贝泰妮质地优良，估值 已修正，负面预期反映完毕，有积极变化便会带来显著涨幅。 2026 年 1 月抖音美妆同比增长 25%，珀莱雅主品牌增长 24%，OR 品 牌翻倍增长；贝泰妮旗下薇诺娜主品牌及薇诺娜宝贝分别实现同比翻倍 及 300%以上增长，受益于组织调整及运营改善。 尚美、毛戈平与陆雨辰保持良好增速，陆雨辰抖音 GMV 环比改善至 8,000 多万，毛戈平继续保持 50%以上增速，尚美旗下子品牌一叶子与 阿米优分别实现翻倍及 200%增长。 Q&A 2026 年美护板块的整体市场表现和未来展望如何？ ...

足球式 2026 年 02 月 10 日 波袋 行业点 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示 本阶段化妆品医美板块表现强于市场。2026 年 1 月 30 日至 2026 年 2 月 6 日期间, ● 申万美容护理指数上涨 3.7%，表现强于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数上涨 2.8%，强于 申万 A 指 4.4pct; 申万个护用品指数上涨 0.7%，强于申万 A 指数 2.2pct。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 雅诗兰黛在华业绩双位数增长，1 月天猫美妆 品类高增 —化妆品医美行业周报 20260209 相关研究 周观点：雅诗兰黛在华业绩双位数增长, 1 月天猫美妆品类高增。据雅诗兰黛 ○ 25Q4(FY26Q2)财报公司净销售额达人民币 ...

行 业 及 产 业 美容护理 2026 年 02 月 10 日 雅诗兰黛在华业绩双位数增长，1 月天猫美妆 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 王盼 A0230523120001 wangpan@swsresearch.com 聂霜 A0230524120002 nieshuang@swsresearch.com 联系人 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 本期投资提示： 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 本阶段化妆品医美板块表现强于市场。2026 年 1 月 30 日至 2026 年 2 月 6 日期间， 申万美容护理指数上涨 3.7%，表现强于市场。其中，申万化妆品指数上涨 2.8%，强于 申万 A 指 4.4pct；申万个护用品指数上涨 0.7%，强于申万 A 指数 2.2pct。 ⚫ 周观点：雅诗兰黛在华业绩双位数增长，1 月天猫美妆品类高增。据雅诗兰黛 25Q4(FY26Q2) ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai for approximately $717 million, aiming to enhance its instant retail supply chain efficiency. Dingdong Maicai has achieved profitability for 12 consecutive quarters and operates over 1,000 front warehouses in China, with a monthly purchasing user base exceeding 7 million [4][24][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply chain efficiency and product quality in the competitive landscape of the instant retail industry, suggesting that the focus will shift towards these aspects post-acquisition [27] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Meituan's acquisition of Dingdong Maicai is expected to create synergies in supply chain, regional layout, and warehouse scale, enhancing operational efficiency in the East China region [24][27] - Dingdong Maicai's established direct sourcing and self-operated production capabilities are anticipated to be preserved and amplified within Meituan's platform [27] Investment Themes - Investment Theme 1: Focus on high-end and fashionable gold jewelry brands, recommending companies like Laopuhuangjin and Chaohongji, which are expected to benefit from the emotional consumption trend [6][29] - Investment Theme 2: Emphasize retail companies adapting to trends and AI-enabled cross-border e-commerce leaders, with recommendations for Yonghui Supermarket and Aiyingshi [6][29] - Investment Theme 3: Highlight domestic beauty brands that cater to emotional value and innovative safe ingredients, recommending brands like Maogeping and Pola [6][29] - Investment Theme 4: Focus on differentiated medical beauty product manufacturers and leading chain medical beauty institutions, recommending Meilitiantian Medical Health and Aimeike [6][29] Market Performance - The retail and social service indices reported a slight decline of 0.34% and a slight increase of 0.02% respectively during the week of February 2 to February 6, 2026 [14][15] - The brand cosmetics sector showed the highest weekly increase of 4.99%, while the watch and jewelry sector led with a year-to-date increase of 16.56% [16][19] Company Highlights - Laopuhuangjin reported a significant revenue increase of 250.9% in FY2025H1, driven by brand expansion and customer base growth [31][32] - Chaohongji is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 125% to 175% in 2025, supported by differentiated product strength and multi-channel marketing [31][32] - Meilitiantian Medical Health anticipates a net profit increase of at least 34% in 2025, driven by both internal growth and acquisitions [39][40]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the cosmetics industry, indicating a positive outlook for selected companies within the sector [5]. Core Insights - The beauty industry is expected to maintain steady growth in 2026, driven by product innovation and the rising trend of domestic brands. The report suggests a bottom-up selection of high-growth products and brands with strong potential, as well as companies that exhibit resilience amid product and channel changes [2][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights that the cosmetics sales during the off-peak season have shown marginal improvement. It suggests focusing on products and brands with strong growth momentum and resilience in the face of changing product and channel dynamics [2]. Key Investment Points - The report identifies two main lines of investment: 1. **High-Growth Companies**: Companies like RuYuchen, BeiJiaJie, MaoGePing, LinQingXuan, and ShangMei are expected to perform well due to strong fundamentals and product innovation [5]. 2. **Brands with Strong Asset Value**: Companies such as BeiTaiNi and PoLaiYa are anticipated to see marginal improvements following adjustments in their channels and product structures [5]. Market Performance - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of cosmetics in December 2025 grew by 8.8% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall retail growth of 0.9%. The annual retail sales for cosmetics in 2025 reached 465.3 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.1% year-on-year increase [5]. Company Valuations - The report provides a valuation table for key companies, indicating their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E. For instance, RuYuchen has an EPS of 0.59 yuan for 2025E with a PE of 60, while BeiTaiNi has an EPS of 1.10 yuan for 2025E with a PE of 43 [7].

美容护理板块盘中逆势拉升，截至发稿拉芳家化涨停，金三江涨超10%，贝泰妮涨超9%，芭薇股份涨 超8%，华熙生物、上海家化、珀莱雅、爱美客等涨超6%。消息面上，据得物App数据显示，男士护肤 品类持续走热，成为Z世代礼赠选择的新宠。在刚刚过去的双旦期间，国货品牌C咖单月销售额同比增 长19倍，谷雨同比增长10倍，男士护肤在得物App迎来爆发式增长。 | | 名称 | 米幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 金三江 | +10.14% | | 2 | 拉芳家化 | +10.01% | | 3 | 贝泰妮 | +9.28% | | 4 | 芭薇股份 | +8.33% | | 5 | 华熙生物 | +6.97% | | 6 | 敷尔佳 | +6.57% | | 7 | 爱美客 | +6.19% | | 8 | 上海家化 | +6.11% | | 9 | 珀莱雅 | +6.10% | | 10 | 丸美生物 | +5.41% | | 11 | 科思股份 | +4.40% | | 12 | 登康口腔 | +4.12% | | 13 | 锦波生物 | +4.09% | | 14 | 早亚股份 | +3 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the beauty industry Core Insights - The beauty industry is undergoing significant changes due to various factors including policy shifts, consumer preferences, and technological advancements Industry Trends - Hainan's "zero tariff, low tax rate, and simplified tax system" policy is expected to transform the region into a global beauty industry hub, allowing international brands to penetrate the market while enhancing the competitiveness of domestic brands [1] - The beauty sector is experiencing a shift from price competition to value competition, driven by the need for genuine product efficacy and core ingredient transparency [4] - The clean beauty segment is facing polarization, with some brands exiting the market while major players continue to invest, indicating a potential growth opportunity in this area [5] - The emergence of beauty robots is seen as a blue ocean market, with companies testing consumer acceptance in 2026 [5] - Multi-functional makeup products that combine skincare benefits are gaining popularity, reflecting a trend towards efficiency and convenience among consumers [6] - The men's skincare market is projected to grow significantly, with domestic brands gaining traction in a traditionally dominated space [8] - The beauty industry is transitioning to a "hardcore metrics" era, emphasizing scientific validation and emotional resonance in branding [8] - The withdrawal of foreign beauty brands from the Chinese market indicates a shift in competitive dynamics, with local brands rising and online costs increasing [9] - ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance) considerations are becoming crucial for brand differentiation and competitive advantage in the beauty sector [10] - The global beauty market is witnessing increased mergers and acquisitions, reshaping the competitive landscape [11] - The Chinese beauty market is expected to reach a transaction volume of over 1.1 trillion yuan, with domestic brands capturing a significant market share [12] Brand Dynamics - New domestic brands are successfully leveraging unique ingredients and precise marketing strategies to thrive in the competitive landscape [14] - The brand "C咖" has emerged as a leader in the oil skin care segment by focusing on scientific innovation and consumer needs [15] - The brand "半亩花田" is seeking to go public, reflecting the trend of marketing optimization and product upgrade in the domestic beauty industry [15] - The introduction of high-end fragrance cleaning products indicates a shift towards quality in the home cleaning market, targeting the upgrading consumer demand [16]

- The report introduces a quantitative model framework for market trend analysis, focusing on five asset style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. The model evaluates assets based on their intrinsic attributes and prioritizes them using the sequence of g > ROE > D, analyzing whether there are "good assets" and whether they are "expensive" [5][8][9] - The model incorporates key factors such as expected growth (gf), actual growth (g), profitability (ROE), high dividend (D), and bankruptcy value (B/P). Each factor is associated with specific market phases, e.g., expected growth is relevant across all phases, while profitability is emphasized during maturity phases [9][12] - The quantitative model has demonstrated strong historical performance, achieving an annualized return of 27.67% since 2009. It has shown consistent excess returns in most years, particularly post-2017, with limited effectiveness in years like 2011, 2012, and 2016 [19][22] - The model's backtesting results for specific years include notable excess returns, such as 51% in 2009, 36% in 2013, and 62% in 2022. However, it also recorded underperformance in years like 2011 (-11%) and 2014 (-4%) [22] - The report details six specific strategies derived from the model, each focusing on different factors: - **Expected Growth Strategy**: Selects industries with the highest analyst-forecasted growth rates. Recent recommendations include sectors like automotive sales, lithium equipment, and tungsten [38][39] - **Actual Growth Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the highest unexpected growth (△g). Current recommendations include photovoltaic equipment, insurance, and coal chemical sectors [40][41] - **Profitability Strategy**: Targets high-ROE industries with low valuations under the PB-ROE framework. Recommended sectors include copper, liquor, and non-dairy beverages [43][44] - **Quality Dividend Strategy**: Utilizes a DP+ROE scoring system to identify industries. Current recommendations include forestry, lithium equipment, and fiberglass [46][47] - **Value Dividend Strategy**: Employs a DP+BP scoring system. Recommended sectors include security, daily chemicals, and buses [49][50] - **Bankruptcy Value Strategy**: Focuses on industries with the lowest PB+SIZE scores. Current recommendations include automotive sales, ceramics, and cotton textiles [53][54]