YTL(000960) 光大证券·2024-08-28 11:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a positive outlook on its future performance [3][5] Core Viewpoints - The company's performance in H1 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 18.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.77%, but net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.35% to 800 million yuan [2] - The rise in tin prices significantly boosted the company's profits, with the average price of tin on the Shanghai market in H1 2024 reaching 251,000 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 21.2% [3] - The company signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement with PT Timah, the fifth-largest tin producer globally, which is expected to enhance future business and technical collaborations [3] - The report is optimistic about the continued upward trend in tin prices, driven by tight supply and recovering demand, particularly in the semiconductor industry [3] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company produced a total of 185,200 tons of non-ferrous metals, including 45,200 tons of tin (up 6.6%), 70,300 tons of copper (up 7.99%), and 68,800 tons of zinc (up 4.56%) [3] - The company's gross profit from tin business in H1 2024 was 1.06 billion yuan, accounting for 47% of the total gross profit, with a year-on-year increase of 46% [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in H1 2024 was 800 million yuan, while the non-GAAP net profit was 1 billion yuan, with a significant difference due to the disposal of assets affecting the current period's profit and loss by -250 million yuan [3] Industry Outlook - The supply of tin is expected to remain tight in 2024, with Myanmar and Indonesia, which accounted for 18% of global tin production in 2023, facing production constraints [3] - The global semiconductor sales in H1 2024 increased by 17% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in demand for tin, which is widely used in the semiconductor industry [3] Valuation and Forecast - The report maintains the original profit forecast for 2024 and raises the performance expectations for 2025-2026, with projected net profits attributable to shareholders of 2.05 billion yuan, 2.52 billion yuan, and 2.74 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are estimated at 11x, 9x, and 8x, respectively, based on the current stock price [3]