神火股份：电解铝产销齐升，所得税环增拖累业绩

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.03 yuan [4] Core Views - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 18.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.65%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.28 billion yuan, down 16.62% year-on-year [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 9.998 billion yuan, up 4.2% year-on-year and 21.6% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 1.194 billion yuan, flat year-on-year but up 9.4% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The electrolytic aluminum segment saw a 3.2% year-on-year increase in production to 749,900 tons, with sales up 2.3% to 749,500 tons, and a gross profit per ton of 4,058 yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment experienced a 15.04% year-on-year decline in production to 3.228 million tons, with sales down 18.75% to 3.151 million tons, and a gross profit per ton of 329.47 yuan, down 42.08% year-on-year [2] - The company's income tax expense for H1 2024 was 771 million yuan, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in Q2, which negatively impacted profits [2] Financial Performance - The company's H1 2024 EBITDA was 8.039 billion yuan, with a projected EBITDA of 9.946 billion yuan for 2025 and 10.405 billion yuan for 2026 [3] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 4.541 billion yuan in 2024, 5.923 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.289 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's EPS is projected to be 2.02 yuan in 2024, 2.63 yuan in 2025, and 2.80 yuan in 2026 [3] Segment Performance - The electrolytic aluminum segment's production in Xinjiang was 400,000 tons, down 2.53% year-on-year, while production in Yunnan was 349,900 tons, up 10.59% year-on-year [2] - The coal segment's operating profit from its two core entities (Xinlong + Xinglong) was 750 million yuan, down from 980 million yuan in the same period last year [2] - The company's investment income from its equity stakes in Longzhou Aluminum and Xinzheng Coal Power was 57 million yuan, down 60.91% year-on-year [2] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 7.45x in 2024, 5.71x in 2025, and 5.38x in 2026 [3] - The company's P/B ratio is expected to be 1.49x in 2024, 1.27x in 2025, and 1.10x in 2026 [3] - The company's EV/EBITDA is projected to be 4.80x in 2024, 3.44x in 2025, and 3.04x in 2026 [3]