越秀地产：毛利下滑、业绩承压，拿地渠道畅通

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [2][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.34 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 15.9% to 1.83 billion yuan due to declining gross margins [1]. - The company has a resilient sales performance, with a contract sales amount of 55.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 34% year-on-year, which is better than the industry average decline of 42% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-energy cities and has added 12 new projects in 7 cities, with 88% located in first-tier and key second-tier cities [1]. - The financial situation remains stable, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.3% and a net debt ratio of 58.6% as of the first half of 2024 [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 35.34 billion yuan, up 10.1% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.83 billion yuan, down 15.9% [1]. - The gross margin decreased to 13.7%, a decline of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a gross profit drop of 15% [1]. - The company plans to adjust its net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to 3.20 billion yuan, 3.49 billion yuan, and 3.81 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a modest growth rate [2]. Sales and Market Position - The company maintained its leading position in the Guangzhou market, achieving sales of 23.05 billion yuan, which accounted for 41.6% of total sales [1]. - The company’s sales in the Greater Bay Area reached 26.1 billion yuan, representing 47.1% of total sales [1]. Land Acquisition and Development Strategy - The company has adopted a "6+1" diversified land acquisition model, adding 12 new projects with a total construction area of 1.72 million square meters, with 57% located in the Greater Bay Area [1]. - As of the first half of 2024, the total land reserve stood at 25.03 million square meters, with 94% located in first and second-tier cities [1]. Financial Health - The company’s financial indicators remain stable, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.3%, a net debt ratio of 58.6%, and a cash-to-short-term debt ratio of 1.53 times as of the first half of 2024 [1]. - The weighted average financing cost decreased by 41 basis points year-on-year to 3.57% [1].