HIKVISION(002415) 国金证券·2024-08-29 12:30Investment Rating - Buy (First Rating) [1] Core Views - The company is a global AIoT leader, transitioning from a traditional security provider to a digital solutions provider with a diversified product matrix of 30,000+ hardware SKUs and 200+ software products [1] - The company's growth is driven by innovation, overseas expansion, and enterprise digital transformation, with PBG (Public Business Group) expected to stabilize in 2024 [1] - The company's software and AI contribute significantly to its gross margin, with the AI Guanlan model enhancing efficiency and reducing costs [1] Business Overview Business Structure - The company operates five major business groups: PBG, EBG, SMBG, Innovation Business, and Overseas Business [1] - PBG focuses on public security and urban governance, with a shift from traditional security to digital city management [1][44] - EBG targets enterprise digital transformation, leveraging AI and SaaS platforms like Yunmou to enhance manufacturing and supply chain efficiency [1][47] - SMBG serves small and medium-sized businesses with fragmented needs, transitioning from traditional distribution to solution-based models [1][60] - Innovation Business includes subsidiaries in smart home, machine vision, and automotive electronics, contributing significantly to growth [1][29] - Overseas Business adopts a localized strategy, with breakthroughs in new product categories and increased penetration in emerging markets [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to grow from 97.49 billion RMB in 2024 to 124.56 billion RMB in 2026, with net profit increasing from 14.36 billion RMB to 21.58 billion RMB [2] - The company's gross margin reached 44.4% in 2023, with a net profit margin of 15.8% [28] - R&D expenses accounted for 12.8% of revenue in 2023, with cumulative R&D investment reaching 56.9 billion RMB since 2006 [17] Innovation and AI - The company's AI Guanlan model reduces training data requirements by 90% while improving recognition accuracy by 18-63% [1] - AI and software contribute significantly to the company's gross margin, with software revenue accounting for 21.3% of total revenue in 2023 [1] - The company's AI open platform has trained over 50,000 algorithms and deployed 4,000 projects, serving more than 15,000 users [23] Market Position - The company is transitioning from a traditional security provider to a global AIoT leader, with innovation and overseas business driving growth [1][10] - The company's PBG business, once dominant, now accounts for only 17.2% of total revenue, reflecting a shift towards enterprise and innovation-driven growth [10][44] Valuation and Target Price - The company is valued at 20x PE for 2025, with a target price of 38.74 RMB per share [2] - The current market price is 26.20 RMB, indicating significant upside potential [2]