ECOVACS(603486) 国投证券·2024-08-31 11:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company, with a target price of 49.40 yuan over the next six months, corresponding to a 20x PE valuation for 2024 [1][3]. Core Views - The company, as a leader in the robotic vacuum industry, possesses advantages in technology, channels, and supply chains, and is continuously optimizing its product and cost structure, which is expected to sustain its business scale [3]. - The company faced significant operational pressure in 2023 due to industry conditions and competitive factors, but the market for robotic vacuums has substantial room for growth, and a recovery in industry sentiment is anticipated in 2024 [3]. - The company has adjusted its operational strategy, which is expected to gradually restore its profitability [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.98 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 610 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 4.3% [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.50 billion yuan, a year-over-year decline of 10.4%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 310 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 20.7% [1]. - The gross margin for Q2 2024 improved to 51.0%, up 3.5 percentage points year-over-year, driven by an increase in the proportion of new vacuum models [1]. - The company’s sales expense ratio decreased significantly to 30.8% in Q2 2024, down 3.6 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to reduced advertising and platform service fees [1]. Sales and Market Trends - The company’s online sales of robotic vacuums in Q2 2024 decreased by 20% year-over-year, compared to a 14% decline in Q1 2024 [1]. - The overseas revenue for the company's brand increased by 11% year-over-year, while domestic revenue growth was approximately -11% [1]. - The new product contribution rate reached 54.2%, indicating a more competitive cost structure for new models, which has positively impacted the overall gross margin [1]. Future Earnings Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.47 yuan, 2.70 yuan, and 3.02 yuan, respectively [3]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability, with net profit forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 1.41 billion yuan, 1.54 billion yuan, and 1.72 billion yuan, respectively [4].