SCIE(600546) 信达证券·2024-08-31 13:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2024, with operating income of 14.057 billion yuan, down 32.01% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.291 billion yuan, down 57.79% year-on-year [1][2] - The report anticipates a recovery in production and profitability in the second half of 2024, supported by strong demand for long-term contract prices in the coal market [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a coal production volume of 15.3812 million tons, a decrease of 27.40% year-on-year, and coal sales revenue of 8.174 billion yuan, down 42.27% year-on-year [1][2] - The average selling price of coal was 685.92 yuan per ton, reflecting a decrease in sales volume of 38.51% year-on-year [1] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 2.381 billion yuan, down 17.57% year-on-year [1] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a recovery in sales volume, with self-produced coal sales reaching 6.456 million tons, an increase of 21.17% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] Profitability and Forecast - The report forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 2.663 billion yuan, 2.746 billion yuan, and 2.827 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 1.34, 1.39, and 1.43 yuan per share [2][3] - The gross profit margin is expected to decline from 39.1% in 2023 to 35.5% in 2024, reflecting the impact of rising resource taxes and market conditions [3] Market and Operational Insights - The company has successfully developed new coal sourcing channels in Malaysia and Indonesia, optimizing its supply structure [2] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining high inventory levels at power plants, which supports coal demand [2]