全国统一电力市场新政颁布，欧洲天然气库存降至低位 【】【】[Table_Industry] 公用事业—电力天然气周报 [Table_ReportDate] 2026 年 2 月 15 日 15666646523.tcy | 证券研究报告 | | | --- | --- | | 行业研究——周报 | | | [Table_ReportType] 行业周报 | | | [Table_StockAndRank] 公用事业 | | | 投资评级 | 看好 | | 上次评级 | 看好 | 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 化工行业： 唐婵玉 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500525050001 邮 箱：tangchanyu@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the oil refining industry Core Insights - The demand for long filament in the market has significantly decreased as the Spring Festival approaches [2] - Domestic key refining project price spread is 2479.13 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of -41.35 CNY/ton (-1.64%), while the foreign key refining project price spread is 1110.81 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week change of +3.54 CNY/ton (+0.32%) [2][3] - Brent crude oil weekly average price is 68.66 USD/barrel, with a week-on-week change of +1.97% [2][3] Refining Sector Summary - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have influenced oil prices, with fluctuations observed throughout the week [2] - As of February 13, 2026, Brent and WTI crude oil prices are 67.75 USD/barrel and 62.89 USD/barrel, respectively, showing a decrease from the previous week [15] - Domestic refined oil prices show slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6234.14 CNY/ton, 7614.29 CNY/ton, and 5037.19 CNY/ton, respectively [15] Chemical Sector Summary - Chemical prices have generally declined, with polyolefins experiencing price fluctuations [2] - The polyester sector anticipates a quick recovery in production post-holiday, with PX and PTA prices increasing [2] - The nylon market shows an upward trend in pricing due to strong cost support [2] Price Changes of Major Refining Companies - The stock price changes for major refining companies as of February 13, 2026, include Rongsheng Petrochemical (+0.83%), Hengli Petrochemical (-0.61%), and Tongkun Co. (+8.07%) [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 1.01%, outperforming the broader market [10] - The supply situation indicates a high furnace capacity utilization rate of 86.4%, with a slight increase of 0.72 percentage points week-on-week [27] - Demand has decreased, with a total consumption of 689.1 million tons of steel, down 9.41% week-on-week [36] - Social inventory of steel has increased by 9.17% week-on-week, totaling 1,026.7 million tons, while factory inventory has also risen by 4.71% [45] - Steel prices have shown a slight decline, with the comprehensive index for ordinary steel at 3,409.5 CNY/ton, down 0.14% week-on-week [51] - Profit margins for rebar steel have improved, with a profit of 80 CNY/ton, an increase of 23.08% week-on-week [59] Supply Summary - As of February 13, the average daily pig iron production was 2.3049 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.91% [27] - The capacity utilization for electric furnaces has decreased significantly by 27.11 percentage points to 21.0% [27] - The total production of the five major steel products was 6.96 million tons, down 3.45% week-on-week [27] Demand Summary - The consumption of the five major steel products was 6.891 million tons, a decrease of 71.58 million tons week-on-week [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 35,000 tons, down 48.24% week-on-week [36] - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.443 million square meters, down 21.2% week-on-week [36] Inventory Summary - Social inventory of the five major steel products reached 10.267 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 86.26 million tons [45] - Factory inventory of the five major steel products was 4.161 million tons, up 4.71% week-on-week [45] Price & Profit Summary - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,409.5 CNY/ton, down 4.73 CNY/ton week-on-week [51] - The comprehensive index for special steel is 6,579.7 CNY/ton, down 2.29 CNY/ton week-on-week [51] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,343 CNY/ton, down 8.0 CNY/ton week-on-week [59] - The profit for electric furnace steel was -48 CNY/ton, while the profit for rebar steel was 80 CNY/ton [59] Investment Recommendations - Focus on regional leading companies with advanced equipment and environmental standards such as Hualing Steel, Shougang, and Shandong Steel [3] - Consider companies with excellent growth potential and restructuring plans like Baosteel and Nanjing Steel [3] - Pay attention to special steel companies benefiting from the new energy cycle [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report indicates that the coal industry is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with a favorable combination of fundamentals and policies, making it a good time to invest in the coal sector [11][12] - The report highlights a significant increase in coal prices, with Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reaching 717 CNY/ton, up 24 CNY/ton week-on-week, driven by optimistic market expectations post-holiday and reduced supply from major coal-producing regions [11][30] - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand balance in the short term, with a medium to long-term supply gap expected to persist, reinforcing the investment logic in coal assets [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Tracking - As of February 13, the market price for Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal is 717 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.5% [6][30] - International coal prices have also risen, with Newcastle's FOB price for Q5500 coal at 81.5 USD/ton, up 6.5% week-on-week [6][30] 2. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 84.4%, down 3.1 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 81.39%, down 5.3 percentage points [11][49] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 10% week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw an 18.8% decline [11][50] 3. Coal Inventory Situation - Coal inventory in inland provinces increased by 1.854 million tons week-on-week, while coastal provinces saw a smaller increase of 0.235 million tons [50] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and others, while also considering companies with high elasticity like Yanzhou Coal and others [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, which have created mixed signals in the market. The report notes that oil prices have experienced a decline, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $67.75 and $62.89 per barrel, respectively, as of February 13, 2026 [2][9] - The report indicates an increase in US crude oil production, reaching 13.713 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. However, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has decreased by 3 to 409 rigs [33][42] - The report also mentions that US crude oil inventories have risen by 8.44 million barrels, marking a 1.02% increase, with commercial crude oil stocks increasing by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of February 13, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $67.75 per barrel, down $0.30 (-0.44%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $62.89 per barrel, down $0.66 (-1.04%) [2][23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 368, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms is 131, also down by 1 [26] Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production is reported at 13.713 million barrels per day, an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs is 409, down by 3 [33] Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing volume is 16 million barrels per day, a decrease of 29,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40%, down 1.1 percentage points [45] Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory stands at 844 million barrels, with a 1.02% increase of 8.529 million barrels from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for the company, indicating a potential for growth in 2026 despite challenges in 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 570 million to 630 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.92% to 53.54%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 10.85% to 23.29% [1][2]. - The strategic partnership with MF France and FR Japan, which involves the transfer of 46.12% equity in Tianqin International, is anticipated to enhance the company's operational capabilities and market reach [1][2]. - The company is optimistic about its core business performance in 2026, with expectations of improved operational profits driven by a stable macroeconomic environment and increased production capacity from its Vietnam project [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have total revenue of 5,978 million yuan, a slight decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to rise to 612 million yuan, a 49.1% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 0.75 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.96 [4]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins in 2026, with total revenue expected to reach 6,579 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 10.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for the company, indicating a potential for growth in 2026 despite challenges in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projected between 570 million to 630 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.92% to 53.54%. However, the net profit excluding non-recurring items is expected to decline by 10.85% to 23.29% [1][2]. - The strategic partnership with MF France and FR Japan, which involves the transfer of 46.12% equity in Tianqin International, is anticipated to enhance the company's operational capabilities and market reach [1][2]. - The company is optimistic about its core business performance in 2026, with expectations of improved operational profits driven by the recovery of overseas orders and increased production capacity from its Vietnam project [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to have total revenue of 5,978 million yuan, a slight decrease of 1.8% year-on-year, while net profit is expected to rise to 612 million yuan, a 49.1% increase [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at 0.75 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.96 [4]. - The company anticipates a gradual recovery in revenue and profit margins in 2026, with total revenue expected to reach 6,579 million yuan and net profit at 606 million yuan [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that major overseas tobacco companies, British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco, have released their annual reports, indicating a slowdown in the market share growth of PLOOM and an acceleration in the iteration of new products by British American Tobacco [2] - British American Tobacco reported a revenue of £13.54 billion for the second half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with new products contributing £1.97 billion, representing a 10.6% increase and accounting for 14.5% of total revenue [2] - Japan Tobacco's revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was ¥833.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, with new products generating ¥3.12 billion, a 34.5% increase, and accounting for 3.7% of total revenue [2] Summary by Sections British American Tobacco - The company experienced accelerated growth in new products in the second half of 2025, with revenue from vapor products decreasing by 5.5% year-on-year but increasing by 9.2% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The heat-not-burn (HNB) segment saw a revenue decline of 2.1% year-on-year, but the premium series HILO's increased market share helped maintain price levels [3] - Revenue from oral tobacco reached £700 million in the second half of 2025, with a significant year-on-year increase of 54.8%, driven by the nationwide launch of VELO PLUS [3] Japan Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new product sales reached 3.9 billion units in the fourth quarter of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 30.0%, with HNB sales at 3.2 billion units, up 40.7% [4] - The market share of PLOOM in Japan was 15.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, showing a slowdown in growth compared to previous quarters [4] - The company is expanding its global market presence, with new product launches in 19 countries as of February 2026 [4] Product Optimization and Global Expansion - Both British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco plan to accelerate the global expansion of new products in 2026, despite anticipated intense competition in other regions [5] - Innovations in product features and differentiated consumption experiences are expected to enhance industry penetration rates [5] - British American Tobacco is set to launch a new HYPER device in the second quarter of 2026, which promises improved performance and user experience [5]

Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Positive" for the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - AI programming is reshaping the core productivity methods in software development, with large model technologies empowering programming tools. The value of AI programming lies in enhancing software development efficiency and quality, lowering technical barriers, and accelerating project iteration cycles [2][11]. - The demand for AI programming is driven by both professional developers upgrading their skills and the empowerment of non-professionals. The global AI code tools market is projected to grow from USD 6.11 billion in 2024 to USD 26.03 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.1% [2][26]. - The overseas application of AI programming is scaling up, with significant revenue growth validating its explosive potential. Major products like GitHub Copilot and Cursor have seen substantial annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth, indicating a robust market response [2][34]. - Domestic companies are actively entering the AI programming space, with significant product launches and user growth, such as ByteDance's Trae IDE and Alibaba's Tongyi Lingma [2][3]. Summary by Sections AI Coding: Reshaping Software Development - AI programming enhances software development efficiency by automating coding tasks, with IDC data indicating a 35% productivity increase for developers using AI coding tools [11][14]. - The market potential for AI programming is vast, with a projected growth in the global AI code tools market from USD 6.11 billion in 2024 to USD 26.03 billion by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 27.1% [26][27]. - The technology is evolving from Copilot to Agent models, indicating a shift towards more autonomous programming environments [23][24]. Overseas AI Programming Applications - GitHub Copilot has surpassed 20 million users, demonstrating the effectiveness of its platform ecosystem [42][59]. - Cursor, a leading AI programming IDE, achieved a valuation increase from USD 90 billion to USD 293 billion within six months, highlighting its market potential [60][63]. Domestic Company Developments - ByteDance's Trae IDE has gained over 6 million users globally, while other domestic products like Snapdevelop and EasyDevelop are also making significant strides in the market [3][34]. - The domestic AI programming market is expected to grow from RMB 6.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 33 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 38.4% [26][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company has announced a stock incentive and employee shareholding plan, targeting revenue and net profit for 2026 at 4.45 billion and 360 million respectively, with growth expected to continue through 2028 [1][2] - The company is experiencing a clear increase in customer orders, driven by overseas expansion and brand development, leading to significant revenue growth [1][2] - The brand strategy is evolving, with collaborations with well-known IPs and a focus on enhancing brand value, which is expected to accelerate growth [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 3.28 billion in 2025 to 5.08 billion in 2027, with a year-on-year growth rate of 23.3% [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 71 million in 2025 to 417 million in 2027, reflecting a significant increase [4] - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize around 28.1% by 2027, with a return on equity (ROE) expected to reach 19.2% [4][7]