Eastern Air Logistics (601156) 华创证券·2024-08-31 13:40Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Eastern Air Logistics (601156) [1] Core Views - Eastern Air Logistics achieved a Q2 profit of 690 million yuan, up 35% YoY, with a mid-term cash dividend payout ratio of 48.35%, demonstrating strong shareholder returns [1] - The company's H1 2024 revenue reached 11.29 billion yuan, a 20.4% YoY increase, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.28 billion yuan, up 0.4% YoY [1] - The comprehensive logistics solutions segment saw significant revenue growth, while ground services improved in gross margin [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 revenue: 11.29 billion yuan, +20.4% YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue: 6.06 billion yuan, +26.3% YoY, +16.1% QoQ [1] - H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.28 billion yuan, +0.4% YoY [1] - Q2 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders: 690 million yuan, +34.9% YoY, +16.9% QoQ [1] Business Segments Air Express - H1 2024 revenue: 4.33 billion yuan, -4.3% YoY, with a gross margin of 19.1%, down 9.4 pct YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue: 2.33 billion yuan, +10.3% YoY, with a gross margin of 22.2%, down 4.5 pct YoY [1] - H1 2024 cargo turnover: 3.914 billion ton-kilometers, +25.7% YoY [1] Ground Services - H1 2024 revenue: 1.22 billion yuan, +4.7% YoY, with a gross margin of 40.1%, up 3.6 pct YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue: 630 million yuan, +2.8% YoY, with a gross margin of 40.6%, down 1.0 pct YoY [1] - H1 2024 cargo handling volume: 1.203 million tons, +1.3% YoY [1] Comprehensive Logistics Solutions - H1 2024 revenue: 5.73 billion yuan, +55.7% YoY, with a gross margin of 13.8%, down 1.9 pct YoY [1] - Q2 2024 revenue: 3.10 billion yuan, +49.4% YoY, with a gross margin of 16.4%, up 1.7 pct YoY [1] - Cross-border e-commerce solutions revenue: 2.807 billion yuan, +47.43% YoY [1] Cost and Expenses - H1 2024 cost: 9.18 billion yuan, +29.1% YoY, with an overall gross margin of 18.7%, down 5.5 pct YoY [1] - Q2 2024 cost: 4.78 billion yuan, +28.9% YoY, with an overall gross margin of 21.2%, down 1.6 pct YoY [1] - H1 2024 three-fee ratio (excluding R&D): 3.6%, down 2.1 pct YoY, mainly due to a reduction in financial expenses [1] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.389 yuan per share (tax included), representing 48.35% of H1 2024 net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Investment Recommendations - Adjusted profit forecasts for 2024-2026: net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.02 billion, 3.46 billion, and 3.66 billion yuan, respectively [1] - Target price: 21.8 yuan, implying a 37% upside from the current price [1] - The company is well-positioned as a core air transport resource owner between China and Europe/US, with significant growth potential in cross-border logistics [1] Industry Outlook - The air freight price index at Pudong Airport showed a weekly increase of 4.3% and a YoY increase of 33.3%, indicating a recovery in freight prices [1] - The report expects the industry to enter a peak season, with Q3 freight prices showing a YoY increase of 33.8% [1]