SF Holding(002352) Guohai Securities·2024-09-01 04:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's cost reduction and efficiency improvement through multi-network integration and operational model transformation are continuously being realized, leading to a positive outlook on profit margin recovery and performance elasticity [1][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 134.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.08%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.81 billion yuan, up 15.10% year-on-year [3][4] - The business volume reached 6.214 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 14.55% (excluding Fengwang), with an average revenue per parcel of 15.93 yuan, down 4.96% year-on-year [2][3] Profitability Analysis - The company's gross margin improved to 13.86%, an increase of 0.34 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin rose to 3.58%, up 0.22 percentage points year-on-year [4][6] - In Q2 2024, the gross margin was 14.51%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.32 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 4.19%, up 0.31 percentage points year-on-year [5][6] Business Segments - Revenue from various business segments in H1 2024 included: - Timely express: 59.19 billion yuan (+5.6% YoY) - Economic express: 13.25 billion yuan (+9.3% YoY) - Freight: 17.55 billion yuan (+16.1% YoY) - Same-city instant delivery: 3.96 billion yuan (+18.5% YoY) - Supply chain and international: 3.12 billion yuan (+8.1% YoY) [6][7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth with projected revenues of 285.08 billion yuan, 314.05 billion yuan, and 345.36 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, each reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [8][9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 9.91 billion yuan, 11.27 billion yuan, and 12.87 billion yuan for the same years, indicating a growth rate of 20%, 14%, and 14% respectively [8][9]