中铁工业：盾构机海外订单高增，收入持续提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas orders for tunnel construction equipment, leading to a continuous rise in revenue [2] - The company reported a revenue of 13.978 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a decrease of 6.17% year-on-year, with a net profit of 934 million yuan, down 6.58% year-on-year [1][2] - The growth in railway investment and supportive equipment renewal policies are expected to boost demand for the company's transportation equipment business [3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 1H24, the company achieved a revenue of 13.978 billion yuan, down 6.17% year-on-year, and a net profit of 934 million yuan, down 6.58% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2024, the revenue was 6.859 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.08% year-on-year, with a net profit of 467 million yuan, down 1.84% year-on-year [1] Business Analysis - The company signed new overseas contracts worth 1.178 billion yuan in 1H24, an increase of 37.98% year-on-year, driven by expansion in developed markets [2] - The revenue from tunnel construction equipment and related services reached 4.444 billion yuan in 1H24, up 5.43% year-on-year [2] - The company maintains the leading market share in domestic shield machines, with over 1,700 orders and more than 1,600 units delivered by June 2024 [2] Market Outlook - National railway fixed asset investment reached 764.5 billion yuan in 2023, up 7.5% year-on-year, with a 10.5% increase in the first seven months of 2024 [3] - The government has approved policies to support large-scale equipment renewal, which is expected to accelerate the replacement of transportation equipment, benefiting the company's long-term revenue growth [3] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 31.417 billion yuan, 33.067 billion yuan, and 34.747 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 1.826 billion yuan, 1.955 billion yuan, and 2.103 billion yuan [3]