Phoenix Media(601928) 东吴证券·2024-09-01 10:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Phoenix Media (601928) [1] Core Views - Phoenix Media's revenue remained stable in H1 2024, with a slight increase of 0.8% YoY to 7.24 billion RMB [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.5% YoY to 1.22 billion RMB, better than expected due to a lower effective tax rate [3] - The effective tax rate dropped to 22.6% in H1 2024, mainly due to tax benefits from 5 high-tech subsidiaries (15% tax rate) and 13 small enterprises (20% of 25% tax rate) [2] - The company's core publishing business maintained stable performance, while the distribution business grew by 6.5% YoY [3] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - H1 2024 revenue: 7.24 billion RMB (+0.8% YoY) [3] - H1 2024 net profit: 1.22 billion RMB (-21.5% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 revenue: 3.89 billion RMB (-1.3% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 net profit: 870 million RMB (-19.4% YoY) [3] Profitability Ratios - H1 2024 gross margin: 42.2% (+0.5 pct YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 gross margin: 47.7% (+3.4 pct YoY) [3] - H1 2024 sales expense ratio: 11.4% (+0.5 pct YoY) [3] - H1 2024 management expense ratio: 11.6% (+0.4 pct YoY) [3] Business Segments Publishing Business - H1 2024 revenue: 2.27 billion RMB (flat YoY) [3] - Maintained leading position in retail market with 3.01% market share [3] - Successfully revised and approved 9 sets of new curriculum textbooks [3] Distribution Business - H1 2024 revenue: 6.14 billion RMB (+6.5% YoY) [3] - Organized over 5,000 reading activities with sales of 250 million RMB [3] - Established new media operation teams and optimized inventory management [3] New Businesses - Generated approximately 18 million RMB from innovative projects [3] - Focused on digital textbook development and platform construction [3] - Expanded study tour business, well-received by users [3] Valuation and Forecast - Current PE ratio: 14.42x (2024E) [2] - Forecasted net profit: 1.88/1.98/2.15 billion RMB for 2024/2025/2026 [4] - Expected EPS: 0.74/0.78/0.84 RMB for 2024/2025/2026 [2] - Forecasted revenue growth: 0.89%/5.00%/5.00% for 2024/2025/2026 [8] Market Data - Current price: 10.63 RMB [5] - 52-week range: 8.29-12.22 RMB [5] - Market cap: 27.05 billion RMB [5] - P/B ratio: 1.42x [5]