QIANHE(603027) 东吴证券·2024-09-02 17:30Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported H1 2024 revenue of 1.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.78%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.38% to 251 million yuan, indicating performance below expectations [2] - The soy sauce and vinegar segments faced pressure, while other products showed steady growth, with Q2 revenue for soy sauce and vinegar declining by 3.1% and 10.2% respectively, while other products grew by 2.2% [2] - The company is actively adjusting its channel strategy, with a net increase of 204 distributors in H1 2024, totaling 3,560 distributors, indicating ongoing channel expansion [2] - Gross margin is under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 2.3 percentage points in Q2 2024, attributed to a higher proportion of low-margin products and increased promotional efforts due to intensified competition [2] - New products launched since June 2024 are expected to improve performance, with a focus on high-end soy sauce and affordable products to broaden the consumer base [3] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 3.431 billion, 3.834 billion, and 4.228 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 564.85 million, 637.78 million, and 703.13 million yuan [3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects total revenue of 3.431 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.98%, and net profit of 564.85 million yuan, a growth of 6.48% [1][3] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 24.51, 21.71, and 19.69 respectively [1][3] - The gross margin is expected to be 36.20% in 2024, slightly declining from 37.15% in 2023 [9]