XfmGroup(603225) 光大证券·2024-09-03 14:11Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in H1 2024, with revenue of 31.27 billion yuan, up 11.0% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 605 million yuan, up 26.2% YoY [2] - Q2 2024 revenue was 16.82 billion yuan, up 7.3% YoY and 16.4% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 329 million yuan, up 13.7% YoY and 19.7% QoQ [2] - The company's polyester filament sales volume reached 3.388 million tons in H1 2024, up 6.7% YoY, and short fiber sales volume was 623,000 tons, up 25.7% YoY [2] - The company launched a restricted stock incentive plan in August 2024, setting performance targets for revenue and net profit growth from 2024 to 2026, reflecting confidence in long-term development [2] - The company is expanding its upstream PTA capacity, with a planned 5.4 million tons project expected to reach 10 million tons by the end of 2025, ensuring raw material supply for polyester filament production [2] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue is projected at 68.11 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.513 billion yuan [7] - 2025E revenue is projected at 73.88 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.031 billion yuan [7] - 2026E revenue is projected at 80.84 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.408 billion yuan [7] Profitability Ratios - Gross margin is expected to improve from 5.8% in 2023 to 7.2% in 2026 [7] - ROE (diluted) is projected to increase from 6.5% in 2023 to 11.4% in 2026 [7] Valuation Metrics - 2024E P/E ratio is 11x, decreasing to 7x by 2026 [7] - 2024E P/B ratio is 1.0x, decreasing to 0.8x by 2026 [7] Industry and Company Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming peak season for polyester filament demand and industry-wide production cuts, which may improve supply-demand dynamics and enhance profitability [2] - The company continues to strengthen its position as a leading polyester producer, with capacity expansion expected to further increase market share [2]