Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 6.07 and an industry rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Insights - The company achieved its first profitable quarter in domestic operations, with a significant increase in market share in Southeast Asia. The revenue for the first half of 2024 reached USD 4.86 billion, a year-on-year growth of 20.6%, and the net profit was USD 30 million, marking a turnaround from losses [3]. - The company’s express delivery volume grew nearly 40% in the first half of 2024, with a total of 11.01 billion packages delivered, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 38.3% [3]. - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia increased to 27.4%, up from 25.4% in 2023, while its market share in China rose to 11.0% from 9.9% [3]. - The report highlights the scale effects of logistics infrastructure, with a decrease in per-package costs in the Chinese market, contributing to improved profitability [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenues of USD 4.86 billion, with segment revenues of USD 3.00 billion from China, USD 1.52 billion from Southeast Asia, and USD 290 million from emerging markets, showing growth rates of 36.1%, 22.0%, and 119.6% respectively [3][4]. - The adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be RMB 2.898 billion, with net profit expected to reach RMB 560 million, a significant turnaround from a loss of RMB 7.845 billion in 2023 [4][5]. Market Position - The company’s market share in Southeast Asia has shown a notable increase, indicating a strong competitive position and potential for further growth in the region [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the company's ability to leverage domestic operational expertise to enhance its performance in Southeast Asia [3]. Valuation - The report adjusts profit forecasts, projecting net profits of RMB 5.60 billion, RMB 22.48 billion, and RMB 33.40 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.06, RMB 0.25, and RMB 0.38 [3][4].
极兔速递-W