GWMOTOR(601633) 长城证券·2024-09-04 07:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Great Wall Motors, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [10]. Core Views - Great Wall Motors achieved a record high average selling price per vehicle in 1H24, with significant contributions from the Tank brand and exports, leading to a revenue increase of 30.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is accelerating its transformation towards electric and intelligent vehicles, with new product launches and a global expansion strategy aimed at achieving overseas sales of 500,000 vehicles in 2024 and over one million by 2030 [1]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected revenues of 205.97 billion yuan, 235.14 billion yuan, and 265.41 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, alongside corresponding net profits of 11.50 billion yuan, 13.30 billion yuan, and 14.98 billion yuan [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue: - 2022A: 137.34 billion yuan - 2023A: 173.21 billion yuan - 2024E: 205.97 billion yuan (growth rate of 18.9%) - 2025E: 235.14 billion yuan (growth rate of 14.2%) - 2026E: 265.41 billion yuan (growth rate of 12.9%) [5] - Net Profit: - 2022A: 8.27 billion yuan - 2023A: 7.02 billion yuan - 2024E: 11.50 billion yuan (growth rate of 63.8%) - 2025E: 13.30 billion yuan (growth rate of 15.6%) - 2026E: 14.98 billion yuan (growth rate of 12.7%) [5] - Key Ratios: - ROE: 12.7% (2022A), 10.3% (2023A), 14.9% (2024E) - P/E: 23.9 (2022A), 28.2 (2023A), 17.2 (2024E) [5] Market and Product Insights - The company sold 559,700 vehicles in 1H24, with a notable increase in high-value models priced above 200,000 yuan, which saw a sales increase of 64% year-on-year [1]. - The Tank brand's sales reached 66,900 units in 2Q24, marking a 96% increase year-on-year, while overseas sales grew by 51% [1]. - The gross margin improved to 21.4% in 2Q24, driven by the high-margin Tank brand and increased export volumes [1].