SBGCL(600827) 国泰君安·2024-09-05 01:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][14]. Core Views - The company's public REITs listing in August has led to an increase in the 2024 EPS forecast to 0.93 (+0.65), while the 2025-2026 EPS estimates have been adjusted downwards to 0.27 (-0.09) and 0.30 (-0.18) respectively. The target price has been lowered to 8.37 yuan, which is above the industry average PE of 31x for 2025 [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's H1 2024 revenue was 15.173 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.17%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 274 million yuan, down 17.58% year-on-year. The Q2 2024 revenue was 6.344 billion yuan, a decline of 7.40%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million yuan, down 34.12% year-on-year [2][3]. - Revenue performance across various retail formats showed weakness, with department stores, shopping centers, supermarkets, and convenience stores experiencing declines, while the outlet format remained stable [2]. - The company is actively pursuing asset securitization and has successfully launched public REITs, with plans to continue exploring various development models focusing on light asset strategies in key urban areas [2][3]. Financial Data Overview - The company's projected revenues for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 29.744 billion yuan, 30.438 billion yuan, and 31.081 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a slight decline in 2024E and modest growth thereafter [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rebound significantly in 2024E to 1.668 billion yuan, followed by a decrease in 2025E to 485 million yuan and a slight increase to 527 million yuan in 2026E [3]. - The company’s current price is 7.21 yuan, with a target price of 8.37 yuan, indicating potential upside [3][4].