广汇能源：煤炭产能大增叠加贸易气弹性仍存，公司成长可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" investment rating for Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a significant increase in coal production capacity and the recovery of natural gas trade margins, leading to potential growth in profits in the second half of the year and beyond [3][2] - The report highlights that the company's coal production and sales have decreased, resulting in a decline in gross profit margins, but anticipates that the new coal production capacity will effectively expand profit margins [1][2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 17.249 billion yuan, a decrease of 50.84% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.455 billion yuan, down 64.70% year-on-year [1] - The company's coal production for H1 2024 was 9.7667 million tons, a decrease of 17.8% year-on-year, while coal sales were 13.381 million tons, down 3.11% year-on-year [1] - The average gross profit margin for the coal business in H1 2024 was approximately 26.22%, down from an average of 34.68% in 2023 [1] Production Capacity Expansion - The company has received approval for a significant increase in coal production capacity, with the Bai Shihu mine's capacity increasing by 17 million tons per year and the Malang mine's capacity increasing from 5 million tons to 10 million tons per year [2][3] - The total new production capacity expected in the second half of the year exceeds 2.2 million tons, which is anticipated to enhance profit scales under current gross profit conditions [2] Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 0.70 yuan, 0.98 yuan, and 1.16 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.7, 6.2, and 5.2 times [3][4] - The report anticipates an increase in net profit scale in the second half of the year and beyond due to the significant increase in coal production capacity and the recovery of natural gas trade margins [3]