通信 周跟踪（20250421-20250427） 领先大市-A(维持) ——一季报后 AI 算力展望依然乐观，去伪存真龙头受益 2025 年 4 月 30 日 行业研究/行业周报 高宇洋 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 研究助理： 邮箱：sunyuewen@sxzq.com MCP 或带动广域网流量增长-周跟踪 （20250414-20250420） 2025.4.25 跟踪：关税政策反复不改光通信供应链 地位，移动发起 OISA 超节点攻坚行动 2025.4.16 通信行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 行业动向： 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】国产算力空间广阔， 【山证通信】山西证券通信行业周 1）海外算力：云巨头资本开支展望确定，光模块、铜连接等核心公司一季 度显示较高增速。上周，谷歌发布 25Q1 财报，公司反映云部门收入同比增长 28%， GCP 在核心和 AI 产品中增速远高于 Cloud 整体收入增长率，因此对于 AI 基础设 施的持续投入已成为支撑核心业务增长的必要条件。公司一季度资 ...

通信 周跟踪（20250421-20250427） 领先大市-A(维持) ——一季报后 AI 算力展望依然乐观，去伪存真龙头受益 2025 年 4 月 30 日 行业研究/行业周报 MCP 或带动广域网流量增长-周跟踪 （20250414-20250420） 2025.4.25 跟踪：关税政策反复不改光通信供应链 地位，移动发起 OISA 超节点攻坚行动 2025.4.16 高宇洋 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 研究助理： 邮箱：sunyuewen@sxzq.com 通信行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 行业动向： 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】国产算力空间广阔， 【山证通信】山西证券通信行业周 1）海外算力：云巨头资本开支展望确定，光模块、铜连接等核心公司一季 度显示较高增速。上周，谷歌发布 25Q1 财报，公司反映云部门收入同比增长 28%， GCP 在核心和 AI 产品中增速远高于 Cloud 整体收入增长率，因此对于 AI 基础设 施的持续投入已成为支撑核心业务增长的必要条件。公司一季度资 ...

电子 周跟踪（20250421-20250425） 领先大市-A(维持) 人工智能高质量发展，把握国产替代和自主可控机会 2025 年 4 月 29 日 行业研究/行业周报 投资要点 电子行业近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 相关报告： 税"措施，看好电子行业自主可控机会- 山西证券电子行业周跟踪 2025.4.8 【山证电子】NAND 价格 Q2 看涨，国 产设备技术突破密集落地-山西证券电子 高宇洋 执业登记编码：S0760523050002 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 董雯丹 邮箱：dongwendan@sxzq.com 市场整体：本周（2025.4.21-2025.4.25）市场大盘整体上涨，上证指数涨 0.56%，深圳成指涨 1.38%，创业板指涨 1.74%，科创 50 跌 0.40%，申万电子 指数涨 0.83%，Wind 半导体指数跌 0.64%。外围市场，费城半导体指数涨 10.94%，台湾半导体指数涨 3.88%。细分板块中，周涨跌幅前三为消费电子 （+3.86%）、其他电子（+2.74%）、元件（+2.43%）。从个股看，涨幅前 五为致尚科技（+44.76%）、ST 宇顺（ ...

兵器兵装Ⅲ 内蒙一机（600967.SH） 增持-A(维持) 业绩恢复较快增长，内装外贸双轮驱动 2025 年 4 月 29 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 事件描述 | 市场数据：2025 年 4 月 | 28 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元）： | | 11.19 | | 年内最高/最低（元）： | | 13.40/6.39 | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿股）： | | 16.99/17.02 | | 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： | | 190.11 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | 190.43 | 基础数据：2025 年 3 月 31 日 | 基本每股收益(元)： | 0.11 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元)： | 0.11 | | 每股净资产(元)： | 6.94 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 1.57 | 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 骆志伟 执业登记编码：S0760522050002 营收逐季恢复快速增长，2025 年 Q1 净利润恢复增长。2024 年四季度单 季度，公司实现营收 26.84 亿元，同比增长 23.88% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [1][7]. Core Views - The company has turned a profit, with its intelligent computing machine achieving commercial success [1]. - The cybersecurity demand has weakened, leading to revenue pressure, but cost control measures have helped the company return to profitability [4]. - The company is actively enhancing its AI product layout and has made significant progress in commercializing its intelligent computing machine [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 2.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.73%, and a net profit of 0.83 billion yuan, recovering from a loss of 3.71 billion yuan in the previous year [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to see revenue between 320 million to 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.43% to 24.17%, with a projected net loss of 0.75 billion to 0.65 billion yuan, but showing growth compared to the previous year's loss [3]. - The company's gross margin reached 61.04% in 2024, an increase of 0.85 percentage points from the previous year, with expectations for further improvement in the first quarter of 2025 [4]. Business Segment Performance - The cybersecurity business generated 2.55 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, down 11.49% year-on-year, while the cloud computing business saw a revenue increase of 10.09% to 256 million yuan [4]. - The intelligent computing machine has generated over 2 million yuan in sales in the first quarter of 2025, with signed and upcoming orders exceeding 20 million yuan [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery and industry policy implementation, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.14, 0.24, and 0.28 respectively [6][7]. - The company is focusing on quality improvement and efficiency enhancement strategies while actively exploring new business directions in cloud security and computing [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown signs of demand recovery, with a potential return to growth in performance [5] - The company experienced a significant decline in revenue in 2024, but the first quarter of 2025 shows a positive growth trend [5] - Ongoing capacity expansion projects are expected to support future growth as downstream demand gradually recovers [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 922 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.16%, with a net loss of 501 million yuan, a decrease of 617.17% [4][5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 233 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.75%, with a net loss of 44 million yuan, a decrease of 13.42% [4][5] - The company’s total liabilities increased to 1.845 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.38% [4][5] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.19 yuan, 0.48 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 73.4, 29.2, and 18.6 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize with the market" rating for the solar industry [1][2]. Core Viewpoints - The solar industry is experiencing significant growth, with a 124.4% year-on-year increase in new installations in March 2025, totaling 20.2 GW [6][16]. - The cumulative new solar installations from January to March 2025 reached 59.7 GW, reflecting a 30.5% year-on-year increase [6][16]. - The report highlights a structural price increase in the industry chain, despite a 22.7% year-on-year decline in component exports in March [7][17]. - Inverter exports showed positive growth, with a 6.8% year-on-year increase in March, amounting to 45.4 billion yuan [8][33]. - Solar power generation in March 2025 increased by 8.9% year-on-year, contributing to 5.37% of the total national power generation [46]. Summary by Sections New Installations - March 2025 saw a new installation of 20.2 GW, a 124.4% increase year-on-year, but a 48.7% decrease compared to January-February [6][16]. - Cumulative installations for the first quarter of 2025 reached 59.7 GW, up 30.5% year-on-year [6][16]. Exports - Component exports in March totaled 176.6 billion yuan, down 22.7% year-on-year but up 47.7% month-on-month [7][17]. - Cumulative component exports for the first quarter were 460.8 billion yuan, a 28.5% year-on-year decline [7][17]. - Inverter exports in March reached 45.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and a month-on-month increase of 39.5% [8][33]. Power Generation - Solar power generation in March 2025 was 417.7 billion kWh, marking an 8.9% year-on-year increase and accounting for 5.37% of total national power generation [46]. - The total national power generation for March was 7780.2 billion kWh, with various energy sources showing different growth rates [46]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Aikang Co., Longi Green Energy, and others for their technological advancements and overseas expansion strategies [9][49][51].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [1][9]. Core Insights - The company's biodiesel products have seen both volume and price increases, contributing to a robust growth outlook driven by global demand and supportive policies [4][9]. - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue reaching 3.563 billion yuan, up 26.73% year-on-year, and net profit of 149 million yuan, up 89.57% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and global footprint, with several projects underway that will enhance its integrated biomass energy capabilities [5][9]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved biodiesel revenue of 3.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.31%, with sales volume of 376,000 tons, up 6.83% [3]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 7.11%, slightly down by 0.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to 4.18%, up 1.39 percentage points [3]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 709 million yuan, with a net profit of 61 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 111.22% [2]. Production Capacity and Projects - The company has a biodiesel production capacity of 500,000 tons and is expanding with projects in Singapore and Thailand, which are expected to significantly enhance its production capabilities [4][5]. - The completion of a 50,000-ton natural fatty alcohol project by the end of 2024 and a 100,000-ton hydrocarbon biodiesel project currently under construction will further strengthen the company's market position [5]. Market Outlook - The global demand for biodiesel is expected to grow steadily in the medium to long term, supported by policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions in transportation [4]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth, with its diversified product offerings and strategic international expansions [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4][8]. Core Views - The company reported a 23.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1 2025, reaching 5.22 billion yuan, and a 29.7% increase in net profit, amounting to 460 million yuan [5]. - The photovoltaic segment is expected to see continued growth, with estimated revenue of approximately 3.45 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a 33% increase year-on-year, and an expected total shipment of over 20GW for the year [6][8]. - The company has a strong financial position with a cash reserve of 7.85 billion yuan and a declining debt ratio of 55.0%, indicating resilience through industry downturns [7]. Financial Performance - The company’s basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q1 2025 is reported at 0.29 yuan, with a net asset return rate of 5.11% [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.11 billion yuan, 2.53 billion yuan, and 2.99 billion yuan respectively, with a dynamic P/E ratio of 10.1 times based on the closing price of 13.08 yuan [8][10]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 19.72 billion yuan in 2023 to 28.89 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.7% [10][11]. Market Performance - The company’s stock closed at 13.08 yuan on April 23, 2025, with a year-to-date high of 16.37 yuan and a low of 11.10 yuan [3]. - The market capitalization stands at 21.28 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market value of 21.26 billion yuan [3]. Dividend Yield - The projected dividend yields for 2022-2024 are 1.9%, 2.9%, and 3.5% respectively, indicating a favorable return for investors [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 50.76% in Q1 2025, reaching 2.4 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 75.33%, amounting to 506 million yuan [4][5]. - The company's contract liabilities surged to 3.237 billion yuan by the end of March 2025, up from 903 million yuan at the end of 2024, reflecting strong order demand [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 61.19%, a slight decrease of 1.68 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin improved to 29.74%, an increase of 4.97 percentage points [5]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 14.64 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 59.8% [10]. - The estimated net profit for 2025 is 3.686 billion yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 90.9% [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted to be 1.59 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 93.95 for 2025, 64.57 for 2026, and 47.64 for 2027 [10][12]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned to benefit from the accelerated domestic replacement of CPU and AI chips, with its main CPU product, Haiguang No. 3, leading in performance within the domestic market [6]. - The latest AI chip product, DCU, is expected to rank among the top domestic AI chips, with strong compatibility with the CUDA ecosystem, enhancing its market potential [6].