通信 周跟踪（20260202-20260208） 领先大市-A(维持) ——北美资本开支增长并未见顶，Scaleup 是光通信重要增量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 行业动向： 1）北美主要 CSP 陆续发布财报，AI 飞轮高速运转，2026 资本开支指引超 预期。近期，北美主要 CSP 完成了 2025 年度财报的公布，普遍向外界传达的信 号是 AI 已从成本中心转为收入引擎，继续扩大投资急迫且真实。 资料来源：常闻 相关报告： 【山证通信】——moltbot 爆火背后 1.1 云业务通过 AI 算力与工具实现高增。例如，AWS 云销售额同比增长 20% 达到 1287 亿美元，其 Bedrock 上托管的 20+个模型得到客户来自项目编程、推理 和代理工作流程的全面需求。谷歌云 2025 年末年化营收突破 700 亿美元成为增 长最快的核心业务，主要得益于企业 AI 基础设施、AI 解决方案及核心云服务的 强劲客户需求。微软 Azure 的年收入已超过 750 亿美元，同比增长 34%，主要来 自 OpenAI 等大客户的长期订单、Azure AI Foun ...

其他电子零组件Ⅲ 华丰科技（688629.SH） 买入-B(维持) 国产超节点项目储备丰富，高速线模组加速放量 2026 年 2 月 13 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点： 公司发布 2025年度业绩预告。公司预计 2025年实现归母净利润 3.38-3.88 亿元，同比增加 3.56-4.06 亿元。实现扣非归母净利润 3.02-3.52 亿元，同比增 长 3.80-4.30 亿元。按照业绩预告中值，公司 25Q4 或实现归母净利润 1.4 亿 元，同环比分别+351.6%、+94.4%。公司表示，数据中心建设热潮拉动的交 换机、AI 服务器及核心路由器关键设备需求传导至上游是带动收入快速增长 原因。 收盘价（元/股）： 105.76 总股本（亿股）： 4.61 流通股本（亿股）： 1.82 流通市值（亿元）： 192.25 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 每股净资产（元/股）： 3.66 每股资本公积（元/股）： 1.73 每股未分配利润（元/股）： 0.84 资料来源：常闻 分析师： 国产超节点服务器层出不穷，华为昇腾系列互联带宽提升路径清晰。英 伟达 GB200 NVL ...

乘用车Ⅲ 长安汽车（000625.SZ） 增持-A(首次) 2026 年 2 月 13 日 单击或点击此处输入文字。 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据：2026 年 2 月 | 11 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | 11.18 | | 年内最高/最低（元/ | | 13.84/11.00 | | 股）： | | | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 | | 82.67/99.13 | | 股）： | | | | 流通 股市值（亿元）： A | | 924.27 | | 总市值（亿元）： | | 1,108.26 | 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.31 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.31 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 7.95 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 2.72 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | 分析师： 刘斌 执业登记编码：S0760524030001 邮箱：liubin3@sxzq.com 贾国琛 执业登记编码：S0760525120001 邮箱：jiaguo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [1][7]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a net profit attributable to shareholders of 338-388 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 356-406 million yuan. The non-recurring net profit is expected to be 302-352 million yuan, with a growth of 380-430 million yuan year-on-year [2]. - The rapid growth in revenue is attributed to the demand for key equipment such as switches, AI servers, and core routers driven by the data center construction boom [2]. - The domestic market for high-speed copper connections is just beginning to expand, with significant growth expected in the penetration rate of domestic computing power in 2026 and 2027 [3]. Financial Performance - The company projects revenues of 2,478 million yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 126.9%, with net profits expected to reach 366 million yuan, marking a staggering growth of 2,160.8% [8]. - The average gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 is reported at 30.8%, an increase of 13.87% compared to 2024 [4]. - The company has secured orders worth 620 million yuan for high-speed line modules, indicating strong demand and a clear order release expectation [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is expanding its production capacity for high-speed line backplane modules and various chip IO projects, with a planned increase from 6,000 sets per month to 24,000 sets per month [4]. - In the defense sector, the company has seen an 80.24% year-on-year increase in orders, with a total of 231 million yuan in hand orders as of September 2025, benefiting from a recovery in demand for military equipment [6]. - The company is also developing high-speed spaceborne connectors that support satellite payloads, indicating a strategic focus on advanced technology applications [6]. Valuation Metrics - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.79 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 133.3 for 2025, 70.5 for 2026, and 46.1 for 2027 [7][8]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 21.5% in 2025, increasing to 30.5% in 2026 and 33.5% in 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [8].

| 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.31 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.31 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 7.95 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 2.72 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | 分析师： 刘斌 执业登记编码：S0760524030001 邮箱：liubin3@sxzq.com 贾国琛 执业登记编码：S0760525120001 邮箱：jiaguochen@sxzq.com 销量增长目标明确，大额回购彰显长期发展信心 乘用车Ⅲ 长安汽车（000625.SZ） 增持-A(首次) 2026 年 2 月 13 日 单击或点击此处输入文字。 公司研究/公司快报 | 市场数据：2026 年 2 月 | 11 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | 11.18 | | 年内最高/最低（元/ | | 13.84/11.00 | | 股）： | | | | 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 | | 82.67/99.13 | | 股）： | | | | 流通 股市值（亿元）： A | | 924.27 | | 总市值（亿元）： ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,134.02, a slight increase of 0.05%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.86% to 14,283.00 [4]. Industry Commentary: Automotive - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum (A00) was 24,085.50 RMB/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month. The average price of magnesium ingots (1) was 18,127.50 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.50% and a month-on-month increase of 5.24%. The magnesium market supply was relatively balanced, leading to stable prices [6]. - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio fell to 0.75, marking a historical low, primarily due to a significant increase in aluminum prices driven by demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and energy storage. This trend highlights the cost advantages of magnesium alloys, which are expected to see increased application [6]. - In 2025, China's total magnesium product exports reached 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with export value dropping by 17.15% to approximately 1.069 billion USD. However, magnesium alloy exports grew by 4.51% year-on-year, indicating a structural shift towards high-value-added products [6]. Company Commentary: Juguang Technology (688167.SH) - Juguang Technology projected a net loss of 42 to 32 million RMB for 2025, a reduction in loss by 76.0% to 81.7% year-on-year. The company expects a net loss of 78 to 68 million RMB after excluding non-recurring items, reflecting a year-on-year reduction of 57.2% to 62.7% [8]. - The company reported a revenue increase of approximately 40% due to higher shipments in optical communication and consumer electronics, with a gross margin improvement driven by a higher proportion of high-margin products [10]. - Juguang Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 613 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34%, with significant contributions from laser optical components and optical solutions for automotive applications [10]. Company Commentary: Aishuo Co., Ltd. (600732.SH) - Aishuo Co. announced a projected net loss of 130 to 180 million RMB for 2025, primarily due to increased investments in new technologies and the impact of currency appreciation on export profits [12]. - The company has secured a patent authorization from Maxeon for its BC solar cell technology, which is expected to enhance its competitive edge in overseas markets [14]. - Aishuo's BC components have demonstrated superior efficiency and performance, with a significant increase in sales volume and a strong order backlog, particularly in high-value markets [17]. Industry Commentary: Photovoltaic Sector - The price of polysilicon remained stable at 54.0 RMB/kg, while silicon wafer prices saw a decline, with 182-183.75mm N-type wafers averaging 1.10 RMB/piece, down 12.0% week-on-week [16]. - The market for battery cells is experiencing high prices with low transaction volumes, indicating a potential stabilization in the short term [16]. - Aishuo's BC components are priced at a premium compared to TOPCon components, reflecting their advanced technology and market demand [19].

其他电子零组件Ⅲ 炬光科技（688167.SH） 增持-A(维持) 微纳光学制造龙头，光通信布局有望迎来收获 2026 年 2 月 12 日 公司研究/公司快报 公司近一年市场表现 投资要点： | 市场数据：2026 年 | 2 月 | 12 日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元/股）： | | | 369.65 | | 总股本（亿股）： | | | 0.90 | | 流通股本（亿股）： | | | 0.90 | | 流通市值（亿元）： | | | 332.17 | | 年 基础数据：2025 9 | 月 | 日 30 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元/股）： | | | 24.46 | | | 每股资本公积（元/股）： | | | | 25.53 | | 每股未分配利润（元/股）： | | | -0.46 | | 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。公司预计 2025 年度归母净利润-0.42 亿至 -0.32 亿元 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the magnesium alloy sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, highlighting the economic advantages of magnesium alloys as their applications continue to expand across multiple industries [2]. - In January 2026, the average price of aluminum was 24,085.50 CNY/ton, up 20.24% year-on-year and 9.77% month-on-month, while magnesium ingot averaged 18,127.50 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.50% year-on-year increase and a 5.24% month-on-month increase [2]. - The magnesium market is experiencing a balanced supply, with stable prices supported by steady demand, leading to a positive market outlook [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, China's total magnesium product exports reached 447,600 tons, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, with export value dropping 17.15% to approximately 1.069 billion USD [3]. - Magnesium ingot exports fell by 5.53% to 251,300 tons, while magnesium alloy exports grew by 4.51% to 99,600 tons, indicating a structural growth in high-value-added segments [3]. Industry Dynamics - The implementation of three key magnesium industry standards on February 1, 2026, marks a new phase in energy conservation and environmental governance within the magnesium smelting industry [6]. - The Shenzhou 20 return capsule utilized a magnesium-lithium alloy operation platform, showcasing advancements in aerospace applications with significant weight reduction [5]. Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry forecasts a net loss of 10-20 million CNY for 2025, primarily due to declining magnesium prices impacting profitability [7]. - Yian Technology anticipates a net loss of 13-18 million CNY, attributed to increased investments in new alloy sectors and currency fluctuations affecting export profits [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry, and those with high magnesium alloy business ratios like Xingyuan Zhuomei, as well as equipment suppliers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in component manufacturing [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the magnesium alloy sector, indicating a leading performance compared to the market [1]. Core Insights - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio has reached a historical low, highlighting the economic advantages of magnesium alloys as their applications continue to expand across multiple industries [2]. - In January 2026, magnesium prices increased slightly, while aluminum prices surged, driven by demand from emerging industries such as photovoltaics and energy storage, leading to a favorable market environment for magnesium alloys [2]. - The export volume of magnesium products in 2025 decreased by 2.65% year-on-year, with a significant drop in export value by 17.15%. However, magnesium alloy exports showed a growth of 4.51%, indicating a structural shift towards high-value-added products in the industry [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The magnesium market in January 2026 showed a balanced supply, with stable prices supported by steady demand [2]. - The magnesium/aluminum price ratio fell to 0.75, a decrease of 0.14 year-on-year, reflecting the competitive edge of magnesium alloys [2]. Industry Developments - The implementation of three new industry standards for magnesium processing began on February 1, 2026, marking a significant step towards energy conservation and environmental governance in the magnesium smelting industry [6]. - The aerospace sector has seen advancements with the use of magnesium-lithium alloy platforms, which significantly reduce weight and enhance performance [5]. Company Announcements - Baowu Magnesium Industry reported a projected net loss for 2025 due to declining magnesium prices, while Yian Technology also forecasted losses attributed to increased investments in new technologies and currency fluctuations [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with comprehensive industry chain layouts such as Baowu Magnesium Industry, and those with high exposure to magnesium alloy business like Xingyuan Zhuomei, as well as equipment suppliers benefiting from increased capital expenditures in the sector [8].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy-A" [1][8] Core Insights - The company has secured Maxeon patent authorization, enhancing its competitive edge in overseas markets with its BC technology, which is expected to have a longer profit period compared to PERC and TOPCon technologies [3][4] - The company maintains a leading position in ABC component efficiency, achieving a record efficiency of 24.8% as of December 2025, and has consistently ranked first globally for 35 months [5][62] - The company has seen significant growth in orders and sales, with a 400% year-on-year increase in N-type ABC component shipments, reaching 8.57GW in the first half of 2025 [7][78] Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 187.6 billion yuan, 269.5 billion yuan, and 378.4 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 68.2%, 43.7%, and 40.4% [8] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2026, with estimates of -15.1 billion yuan, 11.5 billion yuan, and 28.5 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting significant growth [8][9] - The company's EPS is projected to be -0.71 yuan, 0.54 yuan, and 1.35 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of -20.5, 26.9, and 10.9, indicating a valuation below the average of comparable companies [8][9] Technology and Competitive Advantage - The BC technology offers significant cost advantages, with non-silver costs lower than TOPCon, and the performance of BC components is superior, achieving a theoretical efficiency of 29.1% [4][40] - The BC components are priced at a premium of over 10% compared to TOPCon, with current prices for centralized BC components at 0.80 yuan/W and distributed BC components at 0.84 yuan/W [47] - The company is expanding its ecosystem with over 20 enterprises entering the BC technology route, indicating a collaborative innovation environment [57][58] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on high-value markets in Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, with over 40% of its sales coming from overseas in Q2 2025, which has positively impacted its overall gross margin [7][78] - The company has a robust order book with approximately 10GW of new component procurement orders in the first half of 2025, indicating strong demand for its products [7][78] - The company is continuously innovating its product offerings, with the introduction of the third-generation ABC "full-screen" components and the "Navigator" ABC components expected to achieve over 25% efficiency [18][63]