TZE(002129) 海通证券·2024-09-05 06:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][5] Core Insights - The company faced significant revenue decline in H1 2024, with a total revenue of 16.213 billion yuan, down 53.54% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -3.064 billion yuan [4] - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of 6.281 billion yuan, a decrease of 63.65% year-on-year, and a net profit of -2.184 billion yuan [4] - The company is maintaining a positive operating cash flow of 390 million yuan despite the losses, with a healthy debt-to-asset ratio of 55.3% [4] - Recent price increases in silicon wafers indicate a potential recovery in market conditions, with leading companies like Longi Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan raising prices [4] - The company is focusing on organizational upgrades and global capacity expansion, including partnerships for establishing a large-scale crystal chip factory overseas [4] - The company plans to gain control of Maxeon, enhancing its competitive advantage in the North American market through proprietary technology and established channels [5] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a net profit of -4.801 billion yuan, with an expected EPS of -1.19 yuan [6][8] - Revenue is expected to decline to 32.367 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 53.124 billion yuan in 2025 and 62.593 billion yuan in 2026 [6][8] - The gross margin is projected to drop to 0.4% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 15.3% by 2026 [6][8] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to rise to 63.4% in 2025 and 66.6% in 2026, indicating increasing leverage [8][9] Valuation - The company is assigned a reasonable value range of 8.53 to 9.48 yuan based on a PE ratio of 18-20 times for 2025 [5][6] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies is noted, with TCL Zhonghuan's valuation being competitive within the industry [7]