NONGFU SPRING(09633) 申万宏源·2024-09-05 07:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633) [3] Core Views - Nongfu Spring's 2024 interim results showed revenue of RMB 22.173 billion, up 8.36% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.24 billion, up 8.04% YoY, meeting expectations [3] - The company's tea beverage segment continues to grow rapidly, while the packaged water segment faces short-term pressure [3] - Profitability remains stable despite increased promotional expenses for the new green bottled water product [4] Financial Performance Revenue Breakdown - Packaged water: RMB 8.53 billion, down 18.3% YoY [3] - Tea beverages: RMB 8.43 billion, up 59.5% YoY [3] - Functional beverages: RMB 2.55 billion, up 3.8% YoY [3] - Juice beverages: RMB 2.11 billion, up 25.4% YoY [3] - Other products: RMB 550 million, down 7.3% YoY [3] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin: 58.8%, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [4] - Sales expense ratio: 22.4%, down 0.5 percentage points YoY [4] - Administrative expense ratio: 4.1%, down 0.6 percentage points YoY [4] - Net profit margin: 28.1%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY [4] Future Projections - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 46.708 billion, RMB 54.133 billion, RMB 61.508 billion [5] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 13.058 billion, RMB 15.303 billion, RMB 17.866 billion [5] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 1.16, RMB 1.36, RMB 1.59 [5] - ROE forecast for 2024-2026: 39.34%, 31.55%, 26.92% [5] Strategic Positioning - The company's "red bottle + green bottle" strategy caters to diversified consumer needs [3] - Nongfu Spring is well-positioned in the RMB 2 price segment for packaged water [3] - The company is capitalizing on the trends of sugar-free and premium beverages [3]