近日，在小编和一位经销商的闲聊中了解到东鹏饮料在海南的生产基地要开工了。东鹏这个牌子相信并 不陌生，旗下功能饮料东鹏特饮凭借着极致的性价比，一度跟功能饮料届的老大哥红牛分庭抗礼。 无独有偶，农夫山泉、元气森林等知名饮料品牌近期也纷纷传出扩建工厂、布局产能等消息。当下经济 大环境不好生意不好做，花费更少更加灵活的代工模式不香吗？为什么非要"自讨苦吃"建设自有工厂？ 01 饮料大佬纷纷建厂 02 4月25日，东鹏饮料海南生产基地奠基仪式在海口国家高新技术产业开发区隆重举行，下图中，东鹏员 工们一个个充满干劲、心怀憧憬。 据悉，该项目占地200多亩，并且还要投12个亿搞智能化生产线，算上这次，东鹏已经在全国十二个省 市铺开了生产基地。这些省市有广东、安徽、湖南、广西、重庆、天津、浙江等。 2024年财报显示，东鹏饮料营收突破158亿元，其中海南及沿海区域销量增速迅猛，海南基地投产后， 将有效缓解市场供货压力，降低物流成本，能显著提升区域服务效率。 无独有偶，靠着气泡水、电解质水一路在饮品市场厮杀出来的元气森林也没闲着。去年10月，元气森林 在天津拿下二期地块，建立起全球最大的生产基地，未来将辐射华北及东北等区域的市 ...

（於中華人民共和國註冊成立的股份有限公司） (A joint stock company incorporated in the People's Republic of China with limited liability) 股份代號 Stock Code : 9633 2024 年度報告 ANNUAL REPORT 目錄 CONTENTS 2 公司簡介 Company Profile 3 釋義 Definitions 7 公司資料 Corporate Information 10 財務摘要 Financial Highlights 11 董事長致辭 Chairman's Statement 13 管理層討論與分析 Management Discussion and Analysis 41 環境、社會與管治 Environment, Social and Governance 46 企業管治報告 Corporate Governance Report 74 董事、監事及高級管理人員履歷 Biographies of Directors, Supervisors and Senior Management ...

几十年前，还在绍兴诸暨的乡村过着农耕的生活的钟睒睒，或许从未预见，自己这份朴实的农民生活，竟将在多年后成为一个国民瓶装水品牌的一大象 征。 这背后，显然不仅有外部噪音所引发的动荡，也有着其自身原因，未能交出高分答卷的农夫山泉，或许需要寻找更好的解法。 茶饮的守城之战 不同于日出而作，日落而息的农耕生活，建立在全民刚需之上瓶装水行业，堪称"日不落生意"。因循该逻辑，过去的几年里，农夫山泉以其稳健的步伐走 过了一个个高峰，曾经的"日不落生意"似乎无可撼动。 然而到了2024年，长期被视为"标配"的稳步增长似乎戛然而止，全年营收微增0.5%，净利润增幅亦微乎其微。 而压力最集中的去年下半年，农夫山泉营收同比下降6.7%，净利润下降3.8%。这其中，曾作为"定海神针"，支撑农夫山泉持续扩张的瓶装水业务，如今 却未能跟上整体增长步伐。在茶饮业务迅猛崛起的今天，瓶装水业务的表现形成了一种反差。 2024年，东方树叶所代表的茶饮品业务，营收首次超越瓶装水业务，成为家中大哥——大自然的搬运工，终究变成了"卖茶女"。此番转变，虽揭了包装饮 用水业务的短，但在一众下滑业务面前，茶饮品业务能实现32.3%的同比增长，已是难能可贵。 ...

大摩升农夫山泉(09633.HK)目标价至33港元 下调每股盈测 金十数据4月22日讯，摩根士丹利发表研究报告指，由于农夫山泉(09633.HK)包装饮用水的市占率复苏 速度较预期缓慢，因此下调2025至27年的销售预测7至8%。另外，由于毛利率较高的茶饮收入组合增 加，将2025至27年的毛利率略微上调0.3个百分点，加上由于营运杠杆作用，将期内的营运开支比率预 测下调0.9个百分点。综合上述因素，该行降农夫山泉2025至27年的每股盈测2%。大摩上调农夫山泉目 标价3%，由32港元升至33港元，评级为"与大市同步"。 ...

港股消费股午后走强，蜜雪集团(02097.HK)涨超7%再创新高，古茗(01364.HK)涨超8%，农夫山泉 (09633.HK)、茶百道(02555.HK)等跟涨。 ...

进入财报季后，万洲国际、蒙牛、农夫山泉等食品饮料企业也陆续披露了2024年年报。 3月5日，统一企业中国公布2024年业绩，总营收为303.32亿元，同比增长6.1%；3月25日，农夫山泉公布2024年业绩，总营收为428.96亿元，同比增长 0.5%；康师傅公布2024年业绩，总营收为806.51亿元，同比增长0.3%；中国食品公布2024年业绩，总营收为414.92亿元，同比增长0.21%；4月2日，海天 味业公布2024年业绩，总营收为269.01亿元，同比增长9.53%。 看似微小的增幅背后增量体量并不小。如统一企业中国同比增长6.1%，实际上是2024年收入比2023年增加17.41亿元；康师傅同比增长0.3%，实际上是 2024年收入比2023年增加2.33亿元；农夫山泉同比增长0.5%，实际上是2024年收入比2023年增加2.29亿元。 巨头们的营收增量，相当于新锐品牌一年的总和营收。农夫山泉2亿元的增长，若以东方树叶5元/瓶的价格计算，相当于2024年比2023年多卖了4000万 瓶。 农夫山泉东方树叶 图片来源：天猫农夫山泉旗舰店 体量、规模让这些企业成了大象，以往千丝万缕的业务和组织成了 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recognition of Nongfu Spring as a leading bottled water company in China, following its inclusion in the first batch of China's consumer brand list, which emphasizes the importance of quality in "Chinese manufacturing" [1] - The company is the only national bottled water enterprise that uses natural water sources instead of tap water, which has become a key competitive advantage in the industry [2] - Nongfu Spring has established a strategic layout of 12 major water sources across China, including locations such as Emei Mountain in Sichuan and Wuling Mountain in Guizhou, which differentiates it from competitors relying on urban tap water purification [2] Group 2 - In 2024, Nongfu Spring's Anhui Huangshan water source will be operational with a total investment of 1.25 billion yuan, expected to produce 1.6 million tons of natural drinking water annually, generating a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan [3] - The company is simultaneously advancing six other water source projects, indicating a commitment to quality and strategic resource management [3] - This focus on high-quality water sources may reshape the industry's competitive logic, moving away from a price-driven model towards one that values quality investments [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is recognized as a leading player in the Chinese soft drink market, with a dual-engine development strategy focusing on packaged water and beverages. It has shown robust growth with a revenue CAGR of approximately 16% and a net profit CAGR of about 27% from 2018 to 2023 [9][15]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong competitive advantages, including a solid supply chain, diversified product offerings, effective branding strategies, and extensive distribution channels. These factors contribute to its resilience and long-term value [9][15]. - The report forecasts revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 494.88 billion, 552.17 billion, and 608.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 141.48 billion, 159.76 billion, and 178.49 billion yuan [1][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The company has maintained a long-term focus on quality, achieving significant growth through strategic positioning in the natural water segment and innovative product offerings [15]. Development of the Soft Drink Leader - The company has successfully expanded its product range since its establishment in 1996, now offering packaged water, tea beverages, functional drinks, and juices, which collectively drive its growth [16]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a robust supply chain with 12 premium water sources and advanced production capabilities, ensuring quality and efficiency [38]. - Its product strategy includes a diverse portfolio that meets various consumer needs, with a strong emphasis on health and natural ingredients [39]. Industry Outlook - The packaged water market in China is expected to continue growing, with increasing per capita consumption and expanding market opportunities [9][15]. - The beverage market is also projected to grow steadily, particularly in segments like sugar-free tea, which has seen rapid expansion [9][15]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report anticipates continued revenue and profit growth, with projected earnings per share (EPS) increasing from 1.07 yuan in 2023 to 1.59 yuan by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [1][9].

证券研究报告·海外公司深度·食物饮品(HS) 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 秉承长期主义，龙头底色不改 2025 年 04 月 10 日 买入（首次） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 42916 | 42896 | 49488 | 55217 | 60807 | | 同比(%) | 28.13 | (0.05) | 15.37 | 11.58 | 10.12 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 12079 | 12123 | 14148 | 15976 | 17849 | | 同比(%) | 42.19 | 0.36 | 16.70 | 12.92 | 11.72 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.26 | 1.42 | 1.59 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 29.20 | 29.09 | 24.93 | 22.08 | 19.76 | [Table_Tag] [T ...

Core Insights - In 2024, the Chinese beverage industry is facing challenges as Nongfu Spring reports annual revenue of 32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%, maintaining a market share of 27% in the packaged water sector [1] - Despite strong revenue figures, the company is confronted with market saturation, competition from new tea beverage brands, and fluctuations in raw material prices [1] Market Position and Competition - Nongfu Spring holds a market share of 26.7%, but this is being eroded by competitors like Yibao, which increased its share to 21.3%, and Kangshifu, which regained a market share of 18.5% through low-price strategies [1][2] - New tea beverage brands are also impacting traditional categories, with Genki Forest's sales of sugar-free soda water surpassing 1.5 billion bottles [1] Brand Positioning Challenges - The brand's differentiation as "natural water" is under pressure from high-end brands like Baishui Mountain and Evian, as well as low-cost brands in the lower-tier market [2] - In the price segment below 5 yuan, Nongfu Spring's market share decreased by 3 percentage points, while Kangshifu's share increased by 5 percentage points [2] Product Innovation Issues - Nongfu Spring's product innovation has seen a low success rate of less than 30%, with products like "Bubble Tea" being withdrawn shortly after launch due to taste controversies [3] - The company's new product "Lithium Water" has only achieved 40% of expected sales due to high pricing [3] Environmental and Regulatory Concerns - The company faces environmental scrutiny, particularly regarding its water extraction practices, which have led to a decline in consumer confidence [4] - Negative reviews on its Tmall flagship store increased by 12%, with 45% of complaints related to water quality concerns [4] Supply Chain and Cost Pressures - Nongfu Spring's supply chain is robust, with 12 water source bases and 78 automated production lines, but cost pressures are diminishing this advantage [5] - PET prices, which account for about 30% of production costs, surged by 42% in 2023, leading to a decline in gross margin to 55.7% [6] Channel and Distribution Challenges - Traditional retail channels are being disrupted by new retail models, with Nongfu Spring's online sales lagging behind competitors [7] - The company's reliance on traditional retail outlets is becoming a liability as sales in these channels decline [7] Asset and Capacity Issues - The company's heavy asset model, with fixed assets making up 48% of total assets, limits flexibility in responding to market demand fluctuations [8] - Capacity utilization at its Yunnan base was only 65% due to insufficient demand, leading to increased depreciation costs [8] Competitive Landscape - Traditional competitors like Yibao and Kangshifu are strengthening their market positions, with combined market shares approaching 40% [9] - New entrants like Genki Forest and HiTea are disrupting the market with innovative products and strong online sales strategies [10] - Dairy giants like Yili and Mengniu are entering the bottled water market, posing new threats to Nongfu Spring's market share [11] Strategic Outlook - Nongfu Spring's revenue milestone highlights its brand strength but also reveals deep-rooted issues related to product dependency and innovation stagnation [12] - The company must balance cost control and product innovation in the short term while integrating brand strength, supply chain efficiency, and digital capabilities for long-term success [12]