Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 45.50 per share, corresponding to HKD 48.92 per share at a 0.93 exchange rate [7][10]. Core Insights - The company reported stable revenue of RMB 42.90 billion for 2024, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.54%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 12.12 billion, reflecting a 0.36% increase [3][10]. - Despite challenges, the company maintained its leading market share in packaged water, although revenue from this segment declined by 21.3% to RMB 15.95 billion due to external factors [3][10]. - The company is expected to recover in 2025 as it clarifies its position to the public and continues its strategic initiatives [3][10]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Total revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: Revenue of RMB 50.69 billion, net profit of RMB 14.57 billion, EPS of RMB 1.30 - 2026: Revenue of RMB 58.91 billion, net profit of RMB 16.95 billion, EPS of RMB 1.51 - 2027: Revenue of RMB 67.98 billion, net profit of RMB 19.83 billion, EPS of RMB 1.76 [2][10]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) decreased by 1.46 percentage points, leading to a 1.93% decline in gross profit [3][10]. Business Segment Performance - The packaged water segment remains under pressure but retains the highest market share in China, supported by strategic investments in water source facilities [3][10]. - The tea beverage segment showed strong growth, achieving revenue of RMB 16.75 billion, a year-on-year increase of 32.3% [4][10]. - Functional beverages and juice products also demonstrated resilience, with revenues of RMB 4.93 billion and RMB 4.08 billion, respectively, indicating ongoing product innovation and market demand [5][6][10].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of effective marketing and promotional strategies for businesses to stand out in a competitive environment, highlighting the expertise of Shijiesong in providing valuable marketing guidance based on extensive experience in various industries [1][2][3]. Group 1: Marketing Strategy - Shijiesong's modular marketing consulting has successfully assisted over 80 large brand enterprises in overcoming bottlenecks and advancing brand marketing in Northern China [1][3]. - The marketing strategy focuses on "practicality + data," addressing pain points in the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector through precise promotional strategies that achieve "brand effectiveness" [3][45]. - The methodology emphasizes "usefulness as truth," prioritizing consumer benefits and creating compelling reasons for purchase through benefits-driven promotions [5][45]. Group 2: Promotional Tactics - The promotional planning framework includes defining objectives, categorizing strategies, and standardizing execution processes, ensuring a closed-loop management system [4][10][12]. - Key promotional tools include giveaways, interactive games, and bundled packages, with a focus on maximizing terminal support and integrating online and offline communication [12][13]. - Successful case studies, such as Nongfu Spring's campus marketing and Evergrande Ice Spring's Valentine's Day promotions, demonstrate effective strategies that significantly increased sales and brand exposure [20][26][35]. Group 3: Performance Measurement - The effectiveness of promotional activities is evaluated through quantitative metrics like sales achievement rates and qualitative metrics such as consumer satisfaction and brand perception [20][27]. - Shijiesong's approach includes a PDCA (Plan-Do-Check-Act) cycle for continuous improvement in promotional execution, ensuring alignment with market dynamics and consumer needs [4][13][45]. Group 4: Long-term Brand Value - The article discusses the synergy between promotions and brand building, advocating for a shift from short-term sales boosts to long-term brand loyalty through educational marketing and social responsibility initiatives [40][41][42]. - Strategies for managing product life cycles involve focusing on star products while phasing out underperforming items, optimizing inventory turnover rates [41][42]. Group 5: Industry Impact - Shijiesong's marketing framework has been recognized as a standard reference for FMCG promotional planning in academic settings, indicating its influence on industry practices [42][45]. - The article concludes that continuous innovation and meticulous operations are essential for converting promotional traffic into lasting brand loyalty in a dynamic market [45].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Nongfu Spring in H2 2024 fell short of market expectations across all core businesses, primarily due to intensified price competition in the bottled water segment, leading to significant revenue declines [1][5][11]. Bottled Water Business - The bottled water segment reported revenue of 7.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 24%, and a continued slowdown from the previous half-year's decline of 18%, significantly missing the market expectation of 10.09 billion yuan [2][12]. - The introduction of low-priced green bottle water helped increase market share from 27% to around 30%, but overall revenue impact was limited due to aggressive competition from brands like Wahaha and Yibao [12][13]. - The operating profit margin for the bottled water segment dropped to 30%, marking one of the lowest levels in recent years, primarily due to the increased proportion of low-margin green bottle water [13][17]. Tea Beverage Business - The tea beverage segment achieved revenue of 8.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 12.8%, although it also missed market expectations of 9.19 billion yuan [2][14]. - The segment's operating profit margin improved to 46%, making it the most profitable category for the company, aided by cautious spending on marketing [14][18]. - The market share of the company's sugar-free tea brand, Dongfang Shuye, increased to around 70%, benefiting from a strong first-mover advantage [15]. Functional Beverages & Juice - The performance of functional beverages and juice remained lackluster, with limited investment and no significant highlights, despite some individual products performing well [2][16]. Financial Overview - Total revenue for H2 2024 was 20.72 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.7%, with net profit at 6.07 billion yuan, down 3.8%, marking the first negative growth in the company's semi-annual performance in three years [11]. - The overall gross margin decreased to 57.3%, influenced by the increased share of low-margin green bottle water, despite a decline in core raw material costs [3][17]. - The company maintained a stable expense ratio, with core operating profit declining by 11% year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [3][18].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [9]. Core Insights - The company's overall performance in 2024 is stable, with slight impacts on profitability due to promotional activities and rising raw material costs. Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.54% and 0.36% [5]. - The bottled water segment faces short-term pressure but is gradually recovering market share, while tea beverages are experiencing significant growth. Revenue from bottled water in 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down 21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverage revenue is projected at 16.745 billion yuan, up 32.27% year-on-year [6]. - Cost improvements are anticipated, with the company starting to produce its own tea to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. The company expects a decrease in PET prices in 2025, which will aid in cost management [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0.5% and 0.4% respectively. For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to 48.617 billion yuan, representing a growth rate of 13.3% [11]. - The gross margin for 2024 is 58.08%, slightly down from the previous year, while the net profit margin is 28.26% [5]. Market Segments - Bottled water sales are under pressure, with a revenue forecast of 15.952 billion yuan for 2024, down 21.27% year-on-year. However, the company maintains the leading market share in this segment [6]. - Tea beverage revenue is expected to reach 16.745 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 32.27%, driven by strong performance in both sugar-free and sugar-added tea products [6]. Cost and Capacity Management - The company is implementing strategies to improve cost efficiency, including in-house tea production and targeted procurement of raw materials. The production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to lower bottled water sales [8]. - Capital expenditures are projected to remain at current levels, focusing on new plant construction and equipment investments [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [9] Core Views - The company's overall performance in 2024 is stable, with slight impacts on profitability. Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected at 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of +0.54% and +0.36%. However, the second half of 2024 is expected to see a decline in revenue and net profit by -6.67% [5] - The bottled water segment is under short-term pressure, but market share is gradually recovering. Revenue for bottled water in 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down -21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverages are projected to grow rapidly, with revenue of 16.745 billion yuan in 2024, up +32.27% year-on-year [6] - Cost improvements are anticipated, with the company starting to produce its own tea to reduce reliance on third-party suppliers. The company expects a decrease in PET prices in 2025, which will aid in cost management [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit for 2024 are 42.896 billion and 12.123 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of +0.5% and +0.4% [11] - For 2025, revenue is projected to increase to 48.617 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.900 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of +13.3% and +14.7% [11] Market Segments - Bottled water revenue for 2024 is expected to be 15.952 billion yuan, down -21.27% year-on-year, while tea beverage revenue is projected at 16.745 billion yuan, up +32.27% year-on-year [6] - Functional beverages and juice drinks are also expected to perform well, with revenue for functional drinks at 4.932 billion yuan and juice drinks at 4.085 billion yuan in 2024, showing growth rates of +0.62% and +15.60%, respectively [6] Cost and Capacity Management - The company plans to maintain its capital expenditure levels in 2025, focusing on new plant construction and equipment investment [8] - The production capacity utilization rate is expected to decline in 2024 due to reduced bottled water sales, but the company will continue to invest in water source development and equipment [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see revenue growth from 48.617 billion yuan in 2025 to 61.133 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding EPS increasing from 1.24 yuan to 1.53 yuan [9][11]

2024年，农夫山泉遭遇了有史以来最大的公关危机。 农夫山泉也在财报中明确表示，自2024年2月底开始在网络上出现的大量对其公司及创始人的舆论攻击 和恶意诋毁是导致饮用水产品收益大幅下滑的主要原因，且该负面影响在下半年仍在持续。 风起于娃哈哈创始人宗庆后逝世，商场不讲武德，借势造风者众多，一场莫须有的舆论风波将矛头指向 钟睒睒和农夫山泉，互联网流量推手满足了看客们的"吃瓜热情"，因此一波未平、一波又起。事态发展 从"水源污染论"到"添加剂疑云"，从"商业道德争议"再到"日本核废水入瓶"等等，一系列谣言的蔓延， 让农夫山泉官方两次下场辟谣，农夫山泉董事长钟睒睒也分别在去年8月和12月两次接受中央电视台 《对话》栏目专访，直面争议话题，力图通过事实和真诚赢得公众的理解和支持。 舆论，将农夫山泉推至前所未有的审视高度，但在另一方面，更多的关注度对于农夫山泉来说，反而成 为了产品和品牌的试金石。 25日，农夫山泉发布了截至2024年12月31日止年度的全年业绩公告，营收428.96亿元，同比增长0.5%； 净利润为121.23亿元，同比增加0.4%。整体来说，营收增长虽有一定程度的放缓，但净利润率从去年的 29.1% ...

[Table_Title] 证券研究报告 / 港股公司报告 业绩短期承压，2025 年包装水复苏展望积极 事件： [Table_Summary] 公司于 2025 年 3 月 25 日发布 2024 年度报告，2024 年公司实现营收 428.96 亿元，同比增长 0.5%，归母净利 121.23 亿元，同比增长 0.4%； 其中 2024H2 实现营收 207.23 亿元，同比减少 6.7%；归母净利润 58.84 亿元，同比减少 6.7%。 点评： 2024H2 包装水业务进一步下滑，2025 年恢复性增长与盈利提升展望积 极。2024H2 公司包装水营收 74.22 亿元，同比减少 24.4%，相比上半年 下滑幅度有所加大，主要系舆论的持续影响，且公司于 4 月份推出纯净 水产品后加大促销投入以应对市场份额下滑。从实际结果看，尽管报表 端包装水业务营收下滑，但公司产品在零售市场的份额逐步修复。展望 2025 年，包装水行业价格战激烈程度预计有所下降，调整红绿瓶的结构 占比后，公司包装水有望在低基数下实现较快的恢复性增长，规模效应 恢复叠加促销费用等投入压力缓解，包装水的盈利能力将得到增强。 2024H2 ...

公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 评 食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 27 日 农夫山泉 (09633) 上 市 公 司 ——艰难时点已过 25 年关注瓶装水业务复苏 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 投资要点： | | --- | 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 42,667 | 42,896 | 49,355 | 55,402 | 61,534 | | 同比增长率（%） | 28 | 1 | 15 | 12 | 11 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 12,079 | 12,123 | 13,990 | 15,800 | 17,772 | | 同比增长率（%） | 42 | 0 | 15 | 13 | 12 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 1.07 | 1.08 | 1.24 | 1.40 | 1.58 | | 净资产收益率（%） | 42.28 | 37.55 | 37.08 | 36.13 | 35.23 | | 市盈率 | 2 ...

存货从23年的31亿元增加到了24年的50亿元，库存周转天数从55天上升到了82.3天。农夫山泉称是因为"周期性农产品原料备货"，但很难不让人联想到去 年舆论对它的影响。 | | | | | 农夫山泉历年经营数据(单位:亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2020年 | | 2021年 | | 2022年 | | 2023年 | | 2024年 | | | 増速 | | 增速 | | 増速 | | 増速 | | | | 总营收 | 228.8 | 29.81% | 297 | 11.92% | 332.4 | 28.37% | 426.7 | 0.54% | 429 | | 包装饮用水营收 | 139.7 22.12% | | 170.6 | 7.03% | 182.6 | 10.95% | 202.6 | -21.27% | 159 5 | | 包装饮用水占比 | 61% | | 57.40% | | 54.90% | | 47.50% | | 37.20% | | 茶饮料营收 | ...