Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633) [3] Core Views - Nongfu Spring's 2024 interim results showed revenue of RMB 22.173 billion, up 8.36% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.24 billion, up 8.04% YoY, meeting expectations [3] - The company's tea beverage segment continues to grow rapidly, while the packaged water segment faces short-term pressure [3] - Profitability remains stable despite increased promotional expenses for the new green bottled water product [4] Financial Performance Revenue Breakdown - Packaged water: RMB 8.53 billion, down 18.3% YoY [3] - Tea beverages: RMB 8.43 billion, up 59.5% YoY [3] - Functional beverages: RMB 2.55 billion, up 3.8% YoY [3] - Juice beverages: RMB 2.11 billion, up 25.4% YoY [3] - Other products: RMB 550 million, down 7.3% YoY [3] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin: 58.8%, down 1.4 percentage points YoY [4] - Sales expense ratio: 22.4%, down 0.5 percentage points YoY [4] - Administrative expense ratio: 4.1%, down 0.6 percentage points YoY [4] - Net profit margin: 28.1%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY [4] Future Projections - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 46.708 billion, RMB 54.133 billion, RMB 61.508 billion [5] - Net profit forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 13.058 billion, RMB 15.303 billion, RMB 17.866 billion [5] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 1.16, RMB 1.36, RMB 1.59 [5] - ROE forecast for 2024-2026: 39.34%, 31.55%, 26.92% [5] Strategic Positioning - The company's "red bottle + green bottle" strategy caters to diversified consumer needs [3] - Nongfu Spring is well-positioned in the RMB 2 price segment for packaged water [3] - The company is capitalizing on the trends of sugar-free and premium beverages [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 22.173 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.24 billion yuan, also up by 8.0% [1][3] - The report emphasizes the company's strong growth potential and profitability in the beverage industry, driven by its dual-engine development strategy of water and beverages, and its commitment to innovation and health [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - The company's packaging water revenue faced a significant decline of 18.3% year-on-year in H1 2024, totaling 8.531 billion yuan, primarily due to negative impacts from online public opinion [2] - Tea beverage revenue surged by 59.5% year-on-year to 8.430 billion yuan in H1 2024, attributed to the health-conscious and low-sugar consumption trends [2] - Juice beverage revenue increased by 25.4% year-on-year to 2.114 billion yuan, benefiting from product upgrades and new flavor launches [2] - The overall gross margin for H1 2024 was 58.8%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by promotional activities for new products [3] Earnings Forecast - The report projects the company's EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 1.10 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.38 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 24, 21, and 19 times based on the closing price of 28.4 HKD per share on August 30, 2024 [4]

Investment Rating - Buy/Initiate coverage with a target price of HKD 34.7 [1] Core Views - H1 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue reaching RMB 22.17 billion, up 8.4% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6.24 billion, up 8.1% YoY [2] - Green bottle purified water performed well, compensating for the decline in packaged water market share, while sugar-free tea continued to grow rapidly [2] - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.38 percentage points to 58.78% due to increased promotional efforts and lower capacity utilization in the packaged water segment [2] - The company is expected to recover its packaged water market share gradually, with a stable overall operation aiming for high-quality development [2] Product Performance - Packaged water revenue decreased by 18.3% YoY to RMB 8.53 billion, while tea beverage revenue increased by 59.5% YoY to RMB 8.43 billion [2] - Functional beverage revenue grew by 3.8% YoY to RMB 2.55 billion, and juice revenue increased by 25.4% YoY to RMB 2.11 billion [2] - The operating profit margin for packaged water decreased by 4.2 percentage points, while tea beverages saw an increase of 1.0 percentage point [2] Future Outlook - The company expects revenue to grow by 8%, 12%, and 13% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reaching RMB 46.21 billion, RMB 51.85 billion, and RMB 58.33 billion [2] - Net profit is projected to grow by 6%, 12%, and 13% over the same period, reaching RMB 12.83 billion, RMB 14.32 billion, and RMB 16.23 billion, respectively [2] - The company's PE ratio is expected to be 19X, 15X, and 13X for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Financial Metrics - The company's net profit margin remained stable at 28.14% in H1 2024, down only 0.08 percentage points YoY [2] - Sales expenses decreased by 0.53 percentage points to 22.42%, while management expenses decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 4.12% [2] - The company's ROE is expected to be 42.28%, 38.93%, 30.28%, and 25.55% for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E, respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.173 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, with a net profit of 6.240 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [3][4] - The revenue from packaged drinking water declined by 18.3% year-on-year due to negative public sentiment, while ready-to-drink tea revenue surged by 59.5% year-on-year, driven by strong market positioning and product innovation [4][5] - The company is expected to face challenges in restoring its packaged water business due to ongoing negative impacts from public sentiment and increased competition in the market [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 11.246 billion [2] - Total market capitalization: 319.4 billion HKD [2] - 1-year price range: 26.05 to 47.92 HKD [2] - 3-month turnover rate: 10.48% [2] Revenue Performance - H1 2024 revenue breakdown: - Packaged drinking water: 8.531 billion yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year - Ready-to-drink tea: 8.431 billion yuan, up 59.5% year-on-year - Functional beverages: 2.550 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year - Juice beverages: 2.114 billion yuan, up 25.4% year-on-year - Other products: 548 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [3][4] Profitability Metrics - H1 2024 gross margin: 58.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] - H1 2024 net profit margin: 28.1%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Operating profit margins by segment: - Packaged drinking water: 32.2% - Ready-to-drink tea: 44.1% - Functional beverages: 41.2% - Juice: 23.6% [4] Financial Forecasts - Revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026: - 2024: 12.373 billion yuan (down 4.3%) - 2025: 14.420 billion yuan (down 0.8%) - 2026: 16.063 billion yuan (down 1.0%) [5][6] - Current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24x for 2024, 20x for 2025, and 18x for 2026 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company achieved a revenue of 22.173 billion HKD in the first half of 2024, representing a year-over-year growth of 8.36%, and a net profit of 6.240 billion HKD, also reflecting a year-over-year increase of 8.04% [3][4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of tea and juice beverages, which are becoming the core growth drivers for the company's beverage business, with tea beverage revenue growing by 59.5% year-over-year [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue grew by 8.36% year-over-year, driven by the rapid growth of tea and juice products, despite a decline in bottled water sales [3][4] - The gross profit margin decreased by 1.38 percentage points to 58.78%, while the gross profit amount increased by 5.87% year-over-year [3] - The company maintained a net profit margin of 28.14%, with net profit increasing by 8.04% year-over-year [3] Business Segments - Bottled Water: Revenue for bottled water decreased by 18.3% year-over-year to 8.531 billion HKD due to negative impacts from online events affecting brand perception [4] - Tea Beverages: Revenue reached 8.430 billion HKD, with a year-over-year growth of 59.5%, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 39.43% over three years [6] - Juice Beverages: Revenue increased by 25.4% year-over-year to 2.114 billion HKD, although the profit margin decreased by 5.89 percentage points [6] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 47.322 billion HKD, 56.694 billion HKD, and 65.514 billion HKD for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5][7] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 12.693 billion HKD, 15.624 billion HKD, and 18.590 billion HKD [5][7] - The report suggests a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 30-35 times for 2024, translating to a per-share value range of 33.90-39.55 HKD [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for Nongfu Spring (09633 HK) [5] Core Views - Nongfu Spring achieved revenue of RMB 22 173 billion in H1 2024, a YoY increase of 8 36% Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 6 24 billion, up 8 04% YoY [2] - Tea beverage business maintained strong growth momentum, contributing 38% of total revenue with RMB 8 43 billion in sales, up 59 5% YoY [3] - Packaged water segment was significantly impacted by public opinion, with revenue declining 18 3% YoY to RMB 8 531 billion [3] - Gross margin slightly decreased by 1 38 percentage points to 58 78% due to new product promotions and rising raw material costs [3] - The company continues to innovate with new product launches across various categories [3] Financial Performance - H1 2024 financial highlights: - Revenue: RMB 22 173 billion (+8 36% YoY) [2] - Net profit: RMB 6 24 billion (+8 04% YoY) [2] - Gross margin: 58 78% (-1 38pct YoY) [3] - Net margin: 28 14% (-0 08pct YoY) [3] - 2024-2026 financial forecasts: - Revenue: RMB 46 768/54 420/61 760 billion [4] - Net profit: RMB 12 968/15 358/17 647 billion [4] - EPS: RMB 1 15/1 37/1 57 [4] - P/E: 24/20/18x [4] Business Segments - Tea beverages: - Revenue: RMB 8 43 billion (+59 5% YoY) [3] - Contribution to total revenue: 38% (+12 2pct YoY) [3] - Packaged water: - Revenue: RMB 8 531 billion (-18 3% YoY) [3] - Contribution to total revenue: 38 47% (-12 5pct YoY) [3] - Other segments: - Functional drinks: RMB 2 55 billion (+3 8% YoY) [3] - Juice drinks: RMB 2 114 billion (+25 4% YoY) [3] - Others: RMB 548 million (-7 3% YoY) [3] Product Innovation - New product launches in H1 2024: - Packaged water: Pure water and edible ice [3] - Water-soluble C100: Blood orange flavor [3] - Teaπ: Jasmine lemon tea flavor [3] - Jianjiao: Calcium lactate and theanine flavors [3] Valuation Metrics - Current price: HKD 27 55 [5] - Market cap: HKD 138 705 06 million [5] - P/E (2024E): 24x [4] - P/B (2024E): 9 4x [4] - EV/EBITDA (2024E): 15x [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nongfu Spring (9633 HK) with a target price of HKD 34 20 [1] Core Views - Nongfu Spring achieved revenue of RMB 22 17 billion in H1 2024, a YoY increase of 8 4%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 6 24 billion, up 8 0% YoY [2] - The packaging water segment faced pressure due to negative public opinion, with sales dropping 18 3% YoY to RMB 8 53 billion, while tea beverages surged 59 5% YoY to RMB 8 43 billion, driven by the health and low-sugar trend [2] - Gross margin declined by 1 4 percentage points to 58 8% in H1 2024, mainly due to promotional activities for new products and rising costs [2] - The company launched a green-bottled purified water product in April 2024, enhancing its competitiveness in the packaged water market [2] - Nongfu Spring is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 13 56 billion, RMB 16 28 billion, and RMB 18 95 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with EPS of RMB 1 21, RMB 1 45, and RMB 1 68 [2] Business Segment Analysis Packaged Water - Sales revenue for packaged water in H1 2024 was RMB 8 53 billion, down 18 3% YoY, accounting for 38 5% of total revenue [2] - The decline was primarily due to negative public opinion and malicious attacks on the company and its founder in late February 2024 [2] - The green-bottled purified water product is expected to drive future growth in this segment [2] Tea Beverages - Tea beverage sales grew 59 5% YoY to RMB 8 43 billion, driven by the popularity of low-sugar and healthy products like Oriental Leaf and Tea π [2] - New flavors and product specifications for Oriental Leaf were introduced, further solidifying its market position [2] Functional Beverages - Functional beverage sales increased 3 8% YoY to RMB 2 55 billion, with new flavors of Scream and Vitamin Water targeting the youth market through collaborations with outdoor and street dance events [2] Juice Beverages - Juice beverage sales rose 25 4% YoY to RMB 2 11 billion, supported by product upgrades and new flavor expansions for brands like Nongfu Orchard and Water Soluble C100 [2] Other Products - Sales of other products declined 7 2% YoY to RMB 550 million, as the company focused on operational efficiency and key product categories [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to RMB 47 59 billion, RMB 55 53 billion, and RMB 62 41 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 11 5%, 16 7%, and 12 4% [2][6] - Net profit margins are expected to remain strong at 28 1% in 2024, with slight improvements in subsequent years [2] - The company's ROE is forecasted to be 19 6%, 14 47%, and 11 95% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2] Valuation - The report values Nongfu Spring at 26x PE for 2024, translating to a target price of HKD 34 20 based on a 0 92:1 exchange rate [2][8] - Comparable companies include Dongpeng Beverage, Xiangpiaopiao, and Uni-President China, with average PE multiples of 20x, 17x, and 14x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8][9]

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 08 月 29 日 证券研究报告•2024 年中报点评 买入 （维持） 当前价：27.05 港元 农夫山泉（9633.HK）食品饮料 目标价：34.20 港元 包装水短期承压，茶饮加速放量 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2024 年中报，24H1 实现营收 221.7 亿元，同比+8.4%；归母 净利润 62.4 亿元，同比+8.0%。 包装水受舆论攻击影响承压，茶饮受益于无糖风潮维持高增。分品类看，包装 水、茶饮料、功能饮料、果汁饮料、其他产品分别实现销售收入 85.3 亿元 （-18.3%）、84.3亿元（+59.5%）、25.5亿元（+3.8%）、21.1亿元（+25.4%）、 5.5 亿元(-7.2%)，分别占总营收的 38.5%/38.0%/11.5%/9.5%/2.5%。其中，包 装水下降较多主因 2 月底网络出现大量对公司和创始人的舆论攻击和恶意诋毁 影响品牌销售。茶饮料中东方树叶及茶π两大单品在健康化、低糖化趋势下快 速放量，第二曲线逐步夯实，东方树叶新口味新规格研发上市。功能饮料一方 面推出尖叫新口味注入品牌活力，另一方 ...

收盘价 目标价 潜在涨幅 港元 27.05 港元 33.74↓ +24.7% 农夫山泉 (9633 HK) 如何看待绿瓶水和红瓶水的格局？公司于今年 4 月份上市纯净水产品（即 绿瓶水），目前仍处于消费者宣传和终端促销的过程。由于上市时间较短 且产品仅有一种规格（550ml），因此带给公司整体业绩影响有限。同时， 天然水和纯净水有不同的使用目的和场景，因此在各自对应的消费需求领 域存在各自的增长空间。公司计划通过品类差异化的宣传和渠道的建设推 广，以保证两个产品的健康增长。 2024 上半年收入利润均实现高个位数增长。2024 年上半年农夫山泉销售 额同比增长 8.44%至 221.7 亿元（人民币，下同）。毛利率同比下降 1.4 个 百分点至 58.8%，主因 1）纯净水产品新品上市促销的影响，2）上半年包 装饮用水产品销量下降带来固定成本分摊费用的上升，3）果汁原料价格 上升，各因素影响程度较为均衡。净利润同比增长 8.0%至 62.4 亿元，对 应净利润率为 28.1%，仍处高位（2023 年上/下半年分别为 28.2%/ 28.4%）。 包装饮用水业务受舆论影响而显著下滑；茶饮和果汁业务表现亮眼。尽管 ...

农夫山泉(9633 HK) 1H24 错过 ， 茶叶成为最大的利润贡献者 农夫的 1H24 收入 由于包装水部门市场份额下滑，公司未能达到其指引。我 们预计该部门的收入增长率将保持在低个位数，因为市场份额的恢复需要时间 。茶饮料部门的收入同比增长59%，其收入份额接近水类的38%，营业利润率 （OPM）比水类高10个百分点。茶饮料取代了包装水成为公司的主要利润驱 动因素。鉴于下半年不利的环境和管理层态度的软化，我们认为公司在2024财 年实现两位数收入增长的目标具有挑战性。基于2024财年市盈率40倍，我们 将目标价下调13%至50.38港元，以反映较低的盈利预测。维持买入评级。 水部门受到市场份额损失的伤害 2024年上半财年（1H24）收入同比增长8.4 %，低于预期，主要是由于包装水业务收入同比下降18%，原因是在2月因网 上谣言导致品牌受损后市场占有率下降。公司观察到7月和8月市场占有率有所 恢复，但要回到2月前的水平还需要时间。我们预计全年包装水业务收入将实 现个位数低增长，这反映了中大型水业务增长对小型水业务下滑的部分抵消作 用。包装水业务的营业利润率（OPM）较上年同期下降了4.2个百分点，这是 ...