NONGFU SPRING(09633) 光大证券·2024-09-01 06:13Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 22.173 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, with a net profit of 6.240 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [3][4] - The revenue from packaged drinking water declined by 18.3% year-on-year due to negative public sentiment, while ready-to-drink tea revenue surged by 59.5% year-on-year, driven by strong market positioning and product innovation [4][5] - The company is expected to face challenges in restoring its packaged water business due to ongoing negative impacts from public sentiment and increased competition in the market [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 11.246 billion [2] - Total market capitalization: 319.4 billion HKD [2] - 1-year price range: 26.05 to 47.92 HKD [2] - 3-month turnover rate: 10.48% [2] Revenue Performance - H1 2024 revenue breakdown: - Packaged drinking water: 8.531 billion yuan, down 18.3% year-on-year - Ready-to-drink tea: 8.431 billion yuan, up 59.5% year-on-year - Functional beverages: 2.550 billion yuan, up 3.8% year-on-year - Juice beverages: 2.114 billion yuan, up 25.4% year-on-year - Other products: 548 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year [3][4] Profitability Metrics - H1 2024 gross margin: 58.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [4] - H1 2024 net profit margin: 28.1%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Operating profit margins by segment: - Packaged drinking water: 32.2% - Ready-to-drink tea: 44.1% - Functional beverages: 41.2% - Juice: 23.6% [4] Financial Forecasts - Revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026: - 2024: 12.373 billion yuan (down 4.3%) - 2025: 14.420 billion yuan (down 0.8%) - 2026: 16.063 billion yuan (down 1.0%) [5][6] - Current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 24x for 2024, 20x for 2025, and 18x for 2026 [5]