Baosteelpackage(601968) 国盛证券·2024-09-06 00:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baosteel Packaging (601968.SH) [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.001 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93 million yuan, down 26.7% year-on-year. Q2 revenue was 2.019 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year, with net profit down 43.1% [1] - The report anticipates profit improvement in Q3 2024 due to cost transmission from two-piece can production and a decline in aluminum prices [1] - The company has a strong overseas capacity layout, with investments in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Malaysia, totaling 4.2 billion cans/year capacity from 2012 to 2024, enhancing its market position in Southeast Asia [1] - The report projects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 230 million, 301 million, and 392 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22X, 17X, and 13X [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - H1 2024 revenue from two-piece cans was 3.807 billion yuan (up 7.1% year-on-year), while tinplate revenue was 193 million yuan (down 17.0% year-on-year), with respective gross margins of 8.2% and 1.7% [1] - The company’s operating cash flow improved to 459 million yuan in Q2 2024, an increase of 83 million yuan year-on-year, indicating better cash flow management [1] - As of Q2 2024, inventory turnover days were 50, accounts receivable turnover days were 68, and accounts payable turnover days were 41, showing steady operational efficiency [1][2] Financial Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for 2024 is 8.432 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 8.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 5.2% [2][10] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.20 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.27 yuan in 2025 and 0.35 yuan in 2026 [2][10] - The net asset return rate is expected to improve from 6.2% in 2024 to 9.1% in 2026 [2]