SHCI(601225) 民生证券·2024-09-06 02:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Views - The company intends to acquire the entire equity of Shaanxi Coal Power Group from its controlling shareholder, Shaanxi Coal Group, to establish a coal-electricity integrated operation model [2]. - The installed capacity of Shaanxi Coal Power Group is 9.418 million kilowatts, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.355 billion yuan, which accounts for 6.38% of Shaanxi Coal's net profit in 2023 [2]. - The acquisition is expected to reduce related party transactions, increase revenue, and extend the coal business's industrial chain, thereby supporting the successful establishment of the "coal-electricity integration" operation model [2]. - The estimated value of the Shaanxi Coal Power equity is approximately 12.906 billion yuan based on the average valuation of 28 listed power companies [2]. - The company has strong financial capabilities, with cash and cash equivalents of 27.462 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio of 35.44% as of June 2024, indicating the potential for a cash acquisition [2]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield of 5.66% based on a commitment to a 60% payout ratio, reflecting its strong operational performance [2]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 21.999 billion, 23.588 billion, and 24.466 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.27, 2.43, and 2.52 yuan per share [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is reported at 170.872 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 4.1% to 163.851 billion yuan in 2024 [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is 21.239 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 21.999 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 3.6% [3]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to remain stable at 11 for 2024 and 2025, decreasing to 10 in 2026 [3]. - The PB ratio is expected to decline from 2.6 in 2023 to 2.3 in 2024, and further to 1.9 and 1.6 in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3].