京沪高铁：车客流量稳健增长，价格弹性持续兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - In the first half of 2024, the company reduced the number of trains on its main line while increasing cross-line trains, benefiting from the rise in ticket prices and settlement prices, leading to steady profit growth. With improved capacity utilization and a stable competitive landscape, the company is expected to continue its profit growth phase [4][5]. - The company reported a revenue of 20.862 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.357 billion yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue reached 10.756 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.394 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s passenger volume on the main line decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, recovering to 98.7% of 2019 levels. The mileage of cross-line trains increased by 7.9% year-on-year, recovering to 118.0% of 2019 levels. The average ticket price for main line passengers increased by 6.6% year-on-year, recovering to 104.7% of 2019 levels [4][5]. - The company’s passenger transport revenue grew by 5.4% year-on-year to 7.807 billion yuan, recovering to 103.3% of the same period in 2019. Revenue from cross-line trains increased by 10.7% year-on-year to 12.905 billion yuan, recovering to 142.0% of the same period in 2019 [4][5]. Cost and Expenses - The company’s depreciation costs are relatively rigid, and infrastructure maintenance costs are steadily increasing. However, due to the reduction in the number of trains on the main line, the cost of using electric multiple units decreased by 4.0% year-on-year to 2.146 billion yuan, while entrusted transportation management fees increased by only 3.7% year-on-year to 2.999 billion yuan. Total operating costs increased by 1.8% year-on-year to 10.977 billion yuan [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, projected at 13.44 billion yuan, 14.97 billion yuan, and 16.85 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for these years are expected to be 19.8x, 17.8x, and 15.8x [5].