MENGNIU DAIRY(02319) 光大证券·2024-09-09 08:09Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mengniu Dairy (2319.HK) [3] Core Views - Mengniu Dairy's H1 2024 revenue decreased by 12.61% year-on-year to CNY 446.71 billion, with net profit down 19.03% to CNY 24.46 billion [2] - The liquid milk segment is undergoing adjustments, while the low-temperature business is experiencing growth [2] - The company is optimistic about H2 2024 performance due to inventory adjustments and declining raw milk prices, which are expected to improve gross margins [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue breakdown: liquid milk CNY 362.62 billion (-12.9%), ice cream CNY 33.71 billion (-21.8%), milk powder CNY 16.35 billion (-13.7%), cheese CNY 21.14 billion (-6.3%), other dairy products CNY 12.88 billion (+26.3%) [2] - Gross margin for H1 2024 was 40.26%, up 1.86 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower raw milk prices [2] - Net profit margin for H1 2024 was 5.48%, down 0.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revised net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are CNY 43.30 billion, CNY 50.91 billion, and CNY 52.92 billion, representing decreases of 21.22%, 16.64%, and 20.19% respectively [2] - Corresponding EPS for 2024-2026 are projected at CNY 1.10, CNY 1.29, and CNY 1.34 [2] - Current P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 11, 9, and 9 times respectively [2] Market Data - Total shares outstanding: 3.935 billion [4] - Current market capitalization: CNY 508.44 billion [4] - 1-year price range: CNY 11.82 to CNY 28.25 [4]