SANY(600031) Minsheng Securities·2024-09-10 04:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company has shown strong sales growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic small excavator sales increasing by 51% year-on-year and overseas small excavator sales up by 16% [1] - The company is benefiting from a recovery in the domestic construction machinery market, supported by the issuance of government bonds and a large-scale equipment update policy [1] - The company's global manufacturing expansion is expected to enhance its market share, with significant growth opportunities in emerging markets like Africa [1] - Progress in electrification and new energy products is notable, with over 80 new energy products launched in the first half of 2024 [1] - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 6.586 billion, 8.067 billion, and 10.127 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 20x, 16x, and 13x [1] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In August 2024, domestic small excavator sales increased by 51% year-on-year, medium excavators by 44%, and large excavators remained flat. Overseas small excavator sales grew by 16%, medium excavators by 32%, and large excavators by 63% [1] - Sales in Africa reached 3.5 billion yuan, up over 60% year-on-year [1] Market Recovery - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, aided by the commencement of government bond projects and the acceleration of old equipment replacement policies [1] - The company has established a strong presence in Africa, with over 60% localization and service coverage in 52 countries [1] Global Manufacturing Expansion - The company has a global market share of 4.2%, indicating significant room for growth compared to industry leaders [1] - Expansion projects in Indonesia, India, and South Africa are underway, which are expected to enhance global market share [1] Electrification and New Energy - The company has made advancements in electrification, with 30 low-carbon patents obtained in the first half of 2024 [1] - Major breakthroughs include securing a large order for 200 electric loaders in Indonesia and leading the industry in energy consumption performance for electric excavators [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 79.25 billion, 89.106 billion, and 102.811 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with growth rates of 7.1%, 12.4%, and 15.4% [1] - The projected net profit growth rates are 45.5%, 22.5%, and 25.5% for the same years [1]