SANY(600031) Great Wall Securities·2024-09-10 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the industry index by more than 15% in the next 6 months [11] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to recover, driven by rapid growth in overseas sales and cost reduction measures [2] - The company is making significant progress in electrification and globalization, with over 80 new energy products launched, including the SW956E electric loader and SY215E electric excavator [2] - Overseas revenue reached 23.542 billion yuan in H1 2024, accounting for 62.23% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 31.57% [2] - The company's core products, such as excavators, concrete machinery, and cranes, maintain leading market share and sales levels in the industry [2] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 was 38.738 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.95% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.80% YoY to 3.573 billion yuan [1] - Operating cash flow surged by 2204.61% YoY to 8.438 billion yuan in H1 2024 [1] - Q2 2024 revenue was 21.076 billion yuan, down 2.92% YoY but up 19.33% QoQ, with net profit increasing by 5.52% YoY and 26.11% QoQ to 1.993 billion yuan [2] - Gross margin and net margin in Q2 2024 were 28.32% and 9.61%, respectively, showing slight improvements both YoY and QoQ [2] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from 77.981 billion yuan in 2024E to 102.861 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 14.7% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from 6.281 billion yuan in 2024E to 9.772 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 24.7% [1] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 8.5% in 2024E to 11.4% in 2026E, while EPS is expected to grow from 0.74 yuan in 2024E to 1.15 yuan in 2026E [1] Product and Market Performance - Excavator sales in H1 2024 were 15.215 billion yuan, up 0.43% YoY, while concrete machinery sales declined by 5.22% YoY to 7.957 billion yuan [2] - Road machinery sales increased by 15.74% YoY to 1.578 billion yuan in H1 2024 [2] - The company's SW956E electric loader secured a large order of 200 units in Indonesia, marking a significant breakthrough in electric product exports [2] Global Expansion - The company's overseas factories, including the second phase of the Indonesia plant and the India and South Africa plants, are under construction or have completed expansion [2] - Overseas revenue growth is supported by the company's strong presence in international markets and its focus on product localization [2]