TFC(300394) 山西证券·2024-09-10 09:38Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [2][6] Core Viewpoints - The company's passive and active optical components are experiencing strong demand, driven by the global AI boom and increasing computing power needs [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the high-speed optical module market, with a focus on customized, high-quality passive components and optical engine business [6] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown significant year-over-year growth, with H1 2024 revenue reaching 1.56 billion yuan (+134.3% YoY) and net profit reaching 650 million yuan (+177.2% YoY) [3] Market Performance - The company's stock price closed at 73.90 yuan on September 9, 2024, with a yearly high/low of 173.99/68.59 yuan [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at 40.93 billion yuan, with a circulating A-share market cap of 40.85 billion yuan [1] - Basic EPS is 1.18 yuan, with a diluted EPS of 1.18 yuan and a net asset per share of 6.76 yuan [1] Financial Performance - H1 2024 revenue was 1.56 billion yuan (+134.3% YoY), with net profit of 650 million yuan (+177.2% YoY) [3] - Q2 2024 revenue was 820 million yuan (+12.7% QoQ), with net profit of 380 million yuan (+34.6% QoQ) [3] - The company's passive and active optical components generated revenues of 700 million yuan (+63.4% YoY) and 820 million yuan (+267.4% YoY) respectively in H1 2024 [4] Product and Technology Development - The company is focusing on the development of high-speed optical modules, with a particular emphasis on 1.6T products, which are expected to drive future growth [5] - The company's passive components, such as Fiber Array, AWG, and silicon lenses, are highly customized and have high precision, reliability, and consistency [1] - The company is expanding production capacity for passive components supporting high-speed and silicon photonics, with expectations of continued growth in H2 2024 [1] Customer and Market Trends - The company's major customer, Fabrinet, has seen strong growth in data communication revenue, with 800G and above products accounting for 34.4% of revenue in Q2 2024 [5] - Fabrinet expects continued strong demand for 800G products in H2 2024, with potential for 1.6T product shipments following customer demand [5] - The company's inventory of raw materials increased by 64.3% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating preparation for future production needs [5] Financial Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 3.81 billion yuan in 2024E to 8.18 billion yuan in 2026E, with net profit expected to increase from 1.52 billion yuan to 3.14 billion yuan over the same period [6][8] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with 2024E-2026E projections of 55.1%, 52.0%, and 51.9% respectively [8] - EPS is forecasted to grow from 2.74 yuan in 2024E to 5.68 yuan in 2026E, with ROE expected to peak at 39.4% in 2025E [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its overseas presence, with partial production lines in Thailand already operational and a 46.67% stake acquisition in Tianfu Star [5] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with significant R&D investments in specialized Fiber Array devices, silicon photonics components, and high-power laser products [1]