金属行业周报：美国就业数据不佳，压制工业金属价格

Investment Rating - Steel: Neutral [3] - Non-ferrous Metals: Positive [3] Core Views - Steel production is gradually resuming, with average demand and declining inventory leading to weaker steel prices. Raw material prices are also falling, reducing cost support. Short-term steel prices are expected to remain volatile [13][18]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to poor U.S. employment data, raising concerns about an economic recession. The Chilean National Copper Corporation reports a continued shortage of copper mines, with average downstream demand. Future demand data will be closely monitored [33][40]. - Aluminum ore supply remains tight, with stable production in downstream electrolytic aluminum plants. Alumina prices are expected to remain strong, but downstream demand has not shown significant improvement, leading to expectations of volatile electrolytic aluminum prices [42][44]. - Lithium prices continue to decline, with no large-scale production cuts from lithium salt plants. Recent policies promoting vehicle trade-ins may improve downstream demand as the consumption season approaches. However, lithium concentrate prices are falling, weakening cost support [53][54]. Industry Data Summary Steel - As of September 6, 2024, the total steel inventory (social + factory) is 14.97 million tons, down 3.25% from the previous week and down 7.03% year-on-year [20]. - The production of five major steel varieties reached 8.01 million tons, up 2.89% from August 30, but down 13.14% year-on-year [15]. - The average profit margins for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, rebar, and medium-thick plates are -939, -1,117, -626, and -983 yuan/ton, respectively, indicating a decline in profitability [31]. Copper - On September 6, the copper smelting and refining fees were $4.90 per ton and $0.49 per pound, respectively, down 9.26% from August 30 [37]. - LME copper spot prices fell by 2.19% to $9,000 per ton, while domestic prices dropped by 1.66% to 72,700 yuan per ton [40]. Aluminum - From August 30 to September 6, LME aluminum spot prices decreased by 3.88% to $2,400 per ton, and domestic prices fell by 2.09% to 19,200 yuan per ton [44]. - Alumina prices increased by 0.33% to 3,954 yuan per ton during the same period [44]. Lithium - From August 30 to September 6, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fell by 2.63% to 74,000 yuan per ton, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide prices decreased by 1.10% to 71,900 yuan per ton [53].