研究所专题报告：美联储9月降息来临，警惕“靴子落地”效应

Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US August CPI rose 2.5% YoY, down from 2.9% in the previous month, indicating a continued slowdown in inflation[2] - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% MoM, the largest increase in four months, showing persistent inflation stickiness[1][2] - Housing costs, particularly rent, were the main drivers of inflation, with owner-equivalent rent (OER) rising 0.5% MoM, the largest increase since January[3] - Core services inflation, excluding housing and energy, also rose 0.3% MoM, the highest since April[3] - The CPI decline to 2.5% is close to the 2% benchmark, providing a basis for the Fed to start a rate cut cycle in September[3] Market Expectations and Fed Policy - Market expectations for a 50bps rate cut in September have diminished due to resilient core CPI and declining unemployment[3] - Citi withdrew its 50bps rate cut expectation but still anticipates a total of 125bps cuts within the year, while JPMorgan maintains its 50bps expectation[3] - The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25bps in September, with the market having largely priced in this expectation[1][3] Gold Market and "Shoe Drop" Effect - Gold prices have been rising since March 2024, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut cycle[4] - If the Fed only cuts rates by 25bps in September, the "shoe drop" effect could lead to a gold price correction, prompting a recommendation to close long positions[4]