Morning session notice Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周四国债期货主力合约开盘大致平开，早盘横向波动，午后小幅冲高后回落，截至 收盘 30 年期国债期货主力合约 TL2603 下跌 0.03%，10 年期 T2603 上涨 0.02%，5 | | | | | 年期 TF2603 持平，2 年期 TS2603 下跌 0.02%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周四央行开展了 1665 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作和 4000 亿元 14 天期逆 | | | | | 回购操作。当日 1185 亿元逆回购到期，当日合计净投放 4480 亿元。 | | | | | 2、资金市场：周四银行间资金市场隔夜利率较上一交易日小幅下行，DR001 全天加 | | | | | 权平均为 1. ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 13 日星期五 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货收跌 3.08%，报 4941.4 美元/盎司；COMEX 白银期货收跌 10.62%， | | | | | 报 75.01 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 2.42%报 1100.96 元/克，沪银主力合约下 | | | | | 跌 8.35%报 19188 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 12 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日减少 5.14 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1076.18 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silv ...

Morning session notice 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2 月 12 日，春节长假前，交易所提高保证金，投资者离场增多，马盘走弱拖累，连 盘棕榈油领跌植物油板块。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 8082 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.35%，日减仓 | | | | | 12182 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2609 合约报收于 8022 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.37%，日增 | | | | | 仓 2302 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2605 合约收盘价 8782 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.39%，日减 | | | | | 仓 16264 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2609 报收于 8768 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.33%，日减仓 | | | | | 6070 手； | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 02 月 13 日星期五 | | ，对头部生猪养殖企业实行年度生产备案管理，有序调控全国能繁母猪存栏量，促 | | --- | --- | | | 进市场供需更加适配。 | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | 短期来看，假期临近养殖端积极出栏，生猪市场供给充裕，消费支撑减弱，生猪阶 | | | 段性供给压力持续显现。中期来看，全国新生仔猪数量对应今年3月之前生猪供给增 | | | 量预期仍存，供给压力仍将释放；10、11、12月新生仔猪连续3个月环比下降，对应 | | | 今年4月起供给压力有所缓解；重点关注疫病影响。长期来看，母猪存栏对应今年8 | | | 月前供给压力仍存；然而2025年年末能繁母猪存栏降幅不及预期，远月合约预期下 | | | 移。 | | | 【交易策略】 | | | 上周持续提示近月空单进入止盈区域，远月空单试探下方支撑，支撑暂得到盘面验 | | | 证。2603合约支撑10500得到盘面验证，压力关注11000；2605合约 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 13 日星期五 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周四铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、国家能源局：2025 年我国风电太阳能发电新增装机超 4.3 亿千瓦，再创历史新 高。 2、本周，五大钢材品种供应 794.06 万吨，周环比降 25.84 万吨，降幅为 3.2%；总 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 库存 1442.73 万吨，周环比增 104.98 万吨，增幅为 7.8%；周度表观消费量为 689.08 万吨，环比降 9.4%。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 本周螺纹、热卷和五大钢材产量均下降，库存均增加，符合预期。本期铁矿发运和 | | | | | 到港均下降。港口铁矿成交下降。本周铁水日产 230.49 万吨，周环比增加 1.91 万吨。 | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | | | | 预计节前铁矿主力下方750一线仍 ...

联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1120.0 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.31%；焦炭主力合约 J2605收于 1664.0 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.18%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约收于 1121.0 | | | | | 元/吨，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.09%，焦炭主力合约收于 1665.0 元/吨，环比日盘收盘上涨 | | | | | 0.06%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家统计局公布数据显示，1 月份，我国 CPI 环比上涨 0.2%，同比上涨 0.2%，核心 | | | | | CPI 同比上涨 0.8%；PPI 环比上涨 0.4%，连续 4 个月上涨，涨幅比上月扩大 0.2 个百分 | | | | | 点，同比则下降 1.4%，降幅比上月收窄 0.5 个百分点。 | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | 区间震荡 | 2、本周，五大钢材品种供应 794.06 万吨，周环比降 25.84 万吨，降幅为 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 13 日星期五 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、国家能源局：2025 年我国风电太阳能发电新增装机超 4.3 亿千瓦，再创历史新 高。 2、全国 51 家短流程及调坯型钢生产企业，春节期间继续维持正常生产的厂家占比 4%，厂家节后主要复产时间主要围绕两个集中的时间节点，2 月份的 2 月 24 日-26 日（农历初八初十），3 月份的 3 月 3 日（农历正月十五）之后。 3、本周，五大钢材品种供应 794.06 万吨，周环比降 25.84 万吨，降幅为 3.2%；总 库存 1442.73 万吨，周环比增 104.98 万吨，增幅为 7.8%；周度表观消费量为 689.08 万吨，环比降 9.4%。 【市场逻辑】 本周螺纹、热卷和五大钢材产量均下降，库存均增加，需求继续下降，符合预期。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2 | 月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Nasdaq faces downward pressure, and the downward risk of US stocks will spill over. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors. It is advisable to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4][6]. - China's inflation level moderately rebounded in January. The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. However, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday. It is recommended to control risks and hold light positions [5]. - For the "Three Oils and Two Meals" strategy, it is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits and pay attention to the decline expectation after the festival. For vegetable oils, it is recommended to exit previous long positions, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [23][29][31]. - For sugar and jujubes, it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term, use options for risk control, or hold empty positions during the holiday [24][35]. - For cotton, apples, and logs, cotton is expected to maintain a volatile pattern; apples are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term; logs are expected to have an upward price space [25][36][37][38]. - For corn, hogs, and eggs, it is necessary to pay attention to relevant risks such as grain quality, supply pressure, and chicken culling rhythm after the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday [26][39][40][42]. - For crude oil, the price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the fundamentals are strong, but it is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. - For methanol, it is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. - For urea, the price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. - For pure benzene, the price is expected to show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. - For bottle chips, the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. - For rubber series, it is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the overseas market [66]. - For steel, iron ore, coking coal and coke, and ferroalloys, it is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [67][68][69][70]. - For non - ferrous metals, copper prices may be suppressed by the strengthening US dollar; for aluminum, alumina, and caustic soda, it is recommended to hold light positions and operate cautiously during the holiday [85][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - The rebound of the Nasdaq is a technical pullback after breaking below the semi - annual line. Hedge funds have sold US stocks for four consecutive weeks, and the selling in the first week of February was the most intense since April last year [4]. - Investors are worried that the industry disruption brought by AI may be more extensive than expected, and companies planning to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in AI construction may not meet high - profit expectations. US stock funds are flowing from technology stocks to defensive sectors [4]. - It is recommended to exit long positions in stock index futures, reduce equity - type assets, or use short positions in stock index futures to hedge risks or buy put options for protection [4]. Treasury Bonds - In January, China's overall inflation level moderately rebounded. The core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, and the PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month [5]. - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the service industry business activity index was 49.5%, both below the boom - bust line, indicating a moderate economy in January [5]. - The central bank maintains ample liquidity, supporting long positions in treasury bonds. Treasury bond futures may maintain a volatile pattern, and trading - type investors can conduct band operations [5]. Precious Metals Gold and Silver - After previous sharp fluctuations, the volatility of precious metals is narrowing. The COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at around $5000 per ounce, and the COMEX silver at around $80 per ounce [5]. - However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of significant fluctuations in gold and silver [5]. Palladium - Before the festival, palladium shows characteristics of spot shortage, high - price volatility, and being dominated by macro - sentiment. The short - term support is strong, but the callback risk is prominent [19]. - It is recommended to reduce positions on rallies, operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid chasing up. Short - term short positions can be tried lightly above 400 yuan per gram [19]. Platinum - Before the festival, platinum prices are highly volatile, in a pattern of tight supply - demand balance and low inventory. The medium - and long - term structural shortage supports prices, but the short - term callback and basis reversal risks are prominent [22]. - It is recommended to operate cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, and avoid one - sided short selling [22]. Three Oils and Two Meals Three Oils - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm and downward pressure on the vegetable oil market [29]. - Macro: The US - Iran negotiation results have a significant impact on international crude oil prices, and vegetable oil futures prices will follow to some extent [29]. - Fundamentals: The US biodiesel policy boosts US soybean oil, while Indonesia cancels the 2026 B50 biodiesel plan, pressuring Malaysian palm oil. Domestic vegetable oil Spring Festival stocking is over, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, bringing pressure to the vegetable oil market [29]. - It is recommended to exit previous long positions in vegetable oils, hold light positions during the holiday, and resume trading after the festival [29]. Two Meals - Policy: As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the exchange raises margins to control risks, leading to a decline in market trading enthusiasm [31]. - Macro: China's new round of purchases of US soybeans pushes up US soybean prices, and there are rumors of tightening import grain policies in China [31]. - Fundamentals: The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is accelerating, and the expected 184 million tons of production weakens the South American soybean discount. There are rumors of a 5 - million - ton auction of old - reserve imported soybeans after the Spring Festival in China, and the supply pressure is increasing [31]. - It is recommended to close long positions in double meals before the festival to lock in profits [31]. Sugar and Jujubes - Sugar: The recent ICE raw sugar has fallen below the 14 - cent - per - pound integer support, reaching a five - year low. The global sugar supply - demand balance sheet exerts pressure on sugar prices, and the domestic sugar spot trading is stagnant before the festival. It is recommended to use options for risk control or hold empty positions during the holiday [35]. - Jujubes: Before the festival, jujube futures prices rebounded due to the exit of short positions. The supply pressure is the main factor suppressing prices. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - and long - term and hold previous high - level short positions during the holiday [35]. Cotton, Apples, and Logs Cotton - The international cotton market is in a loose pattern. The supply shows structural changes, and the consumption is differentiated. The domestic supply is abundant, and the downstream trading is slowing down before the festival. Cotton prices are expected to maintain a volatile pattern [36]. Apples - The pre - festival trading in apple production areas is basically over. The cold - storage good - quality apples are in short supply, raising the cost of warehouse receipts. Apple prices are expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short term [37]. Logs - The log futures market has both bullish and bearish factors. The price of 3 - meter wood squares in Lanshan area is rising, and the market expects the log price to have an upward space, injecting positive factors into the futures market [38]. Corn, Hogs, and Eggs Corn - Short - term: The spot market trading is light before the Spring Festival, with narrow - range fluctuations. Medium - term: There is still inventory - building demand after the Spring Festival, and a wide - range trading idea should be maintained. Long - term: The pricing logic is still based on substitution + planting cost [39]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to the post - holiday grain quality and policy - grain auction [39]. Hogs - Short - term: The supply of hogs is abundant, and the consumption support is weak before the holiday. Medium - term: The supply pressure will continue to be released before March, and will be alleviated from April. Long - term: The supply pressure will still exist before August, and the far - month contract expectations are lowered [40]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the post - holiday supply pressure and disease situation [40]. Eggs - Short - term: The spot trading is light before the Spring Festival, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in February is putting pressure on egg prices. Medium - term: The egg supply pressure is postponed. Long - term: The continuous expansion of the egg - laying hen breeding scale may limit the price increase space [42]. - It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and focus on the chicken culling and molting rhythm around the Spring Festival [42]. Crude Oil - The US - Iran negotiation and market liquidity have affected the crude oil price recently. The price is expected to show a short - term upward - trending volatility before the outcome of the US - Iran situation is determined [49]. Lithium Carbonate - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased, leading to the stabilization of precious metals and the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. The fundamentals are strong, with production and inventory decreasing. The lithium - battery industry's production plan in March is expected to reach a new high [52]. - It is necessary to manage positions during the holiday [52]. Methanol - The methanol port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas Iranian methanol plants are expected to gradually resume in March. The price is in an interval - running pattern, and attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation during the holiday [55]. Urea - Urea factories have been destocking since mid - October last year, and the price is supported by reserve demand and agricultural stocking. However, high daily production still exerts pressure. The price is likely to rise but is restricted by policies. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and domestic demand progress during the holiday [58]. Pure Benzene - Crude oil provides strong cost support for pure benzene. Although the current market is weak, the future supply - demand pattern is good. It is expected that the price will show a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and post - holiday demand [61]. Bottle Chips - Crude oil provides strong cost support for bottle chips. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is expected to follow the raw material end in a wide - range and strong - trending volatility. Attention should be paid to the Middle - East geopolitical situation and crude oil performance [62]. Rubber Series Natural Rubber - Before the festival, natural rubber prices are oscillating strongly. The overseas raw material is in the production - reduction season, and the overall warming of commodities boosts the price. However, the seasonal inventory accumulation may suppress the market during the holiday. It is recommended to hold light long positions during the holiday [66]. Synthetic Rubber - Recently, BR has been oscillating. Before the festival, the supply of butadiene is not significantly replenished, and the market trading is light. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to overseas geopolitical events and crude oil trends [66]. Steel - The exchange has raised the margin to 12%. There are risks such as insufficient macro - policy easing, liquidity decline, raw material price fluctuations, and external market linkages. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions to avoid risks during the holiday [73]. Iron Ore - The margin has been increased from 11% to 13%, and the daily limit has been raised from 9% to 11%. There are risks such as high inventory, loose supply - demand, pre - holiday capital withdrawal, and external market fluctuations during the holiday. It is recommended to significantly reduce positions [76]. Coking Coal and Coke - Before the Spring Festival, the coking coal spot trading is relatively sluggish, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to hold light or empty positions during the holiday and pay attention to post - holiday policies and coal imports [80]. Ferroalloys - Before the Spring Festival, the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon futures continue the pattern of "cost support, weak demand, and interval oscillation". The supply and demand of the two types of ferroalloys are different. It is recommended to hold light positions during the holiday and pay attention to supply - side changes and post - holiday resumption of work [83]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening US dollar will suppress copper prices. There are also risks such as tariff expectations, inventory accumulation, and demand substitution [90]. Aluminum - Before the festival, Shanghai aluminum is oscillating weakly, restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It is recommended to hold light positions, operate cautiously, and conduct intraday trading to avoid overnight risks [92]. Alumina - Before the festival, alumina prices are weakly oscillating, under pressure from cost, supply, and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously, hold light positions during the holiday, conduct intraday trading, and avoid one - sided short selling [95]. Caustic Soda - Before the festival, the caustic soda price is under pressure, showing a weak - oscillating trend. It is recommended to short on rallies, operate cautiously, and hold light positions during the holiday [98].

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 12 日星期四 | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 震荡 | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周三铁矿收跌。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、中汽协：1 月份我国新能源汽车产销同比分别增长 2.5%和 0.1%。 2、据 Mysteel 统计，16 家重点房企 2026 年 1 月销售额合计 702.63 亿元，同比下 降 12.8%，环比下降 50.9%。 3、2026 年 1 月份，全国居民消费价格同比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%，农村 上涨 0.1%；食品价格下降 0.7%，非食品价格上涨 0.4%；消费品价格上涨 0.3%，服 务价格上涨 0.1%。1 月份，全国居民消费价格环比上涨 0.2%。其中，城市上涨 0.2%， 农村上涨 0.2%；食品价格持平，非食品价格上涨 0.2%；消费品价格上涨 0.2%，服 | | ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR605 合约收盘价 5266 元/吨，日跌幅 0.23%，夜盘收 5253 元/吨；SR609 合约 收盘价 5275 元/吨，日跌幅 0.25%，夜盘收 5260 元/吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1.广西白糖现货成交价为 5301 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 5300~5400 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 5130~5190 元/吨，报价均持平；加工糖厂主 流报价区间为 5580~5900 元/吨，仅个别下调 10 元/吨。 | | | | | 2.2025/26 榨季截至 1 月上半月，巴西中南部地区累计入榨量为 60103.5 万吨，较 | | | | | 去年同期的 61469 万吨减少 1365.5 万吨，同比降幅达 2.22%；甘蔗 ATR 为 138.36kg/ | | | | ...