期货研究报告 正文目录 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 2 日 橡胶周报 利多因素提振 橡胶偏强运行 核心观点 2 橡胶 ...

Morning session notice 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 2 日星期一 分品种观点详述 评级预测说明："+"表示：当日收盘价>上日收盘价；"-"表示：当日收盘价<上日收盘价。 数字代表当日涨跌幅度范围（以主力合约收盘价计算）。0.5 表示：0≤当日涨跌幅<0.5%；1 表示：0.5%≤当日涨跌幅<1%；2 表示：1%≤当日涨跌幅<2%；3 表示：2%≤当日涨跌幅<3%； 4 表示：3%≤当日涨跌幅<4%；5 表示：4%≤当日涨跌幅。评级仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 议。 重要事项: 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 评级预 测 | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 天 胶 震 荡偏强 20 号 胶 震 荡 偏 合 成 胶 震 荡 偏 | 【行情复盘】 截至 02 月 27 日： RU 主力合约收盘价为 17155 元/吨，日涨幅 0.18%。 NR 主力合 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | 第二部分 | 供应 3 | | | 一、 天然橡胶产量 3 | | | 二、 天然橡胶库存 4 | | | 三、 其他供应端数据 5 | | | 四、 合成橡胶没有拖累天然橡胶 6 | | 第三部分 | 消费与宏观 7 | | | 五、 汽车行业 7 | | 第四部分 | 小结 8 | 第一部分 前言概要 截至 2 月，天然橡胶产业内多项供应数据出现拐点，支撑其估值相对于商品整 体水平走强。合成橡胶仓单累库明显，其对天然橡胶仓单的比值创历史新高，但该 因素已在价差中得到充分兑现，并非拖累天然橡胶估值的原因。 RU、NR、BR 月报 2026 年 02 月 27 日 橡胶板块研发报告 供应达峰消费支撑，橡胶进入转强周期 橡胶板块的消费与宏观消费重合度较高。当前全球汽车产业仍保持较高增速， 并不逊色于光伏、AI 等热门产业，能够支撑商品需求维持较高增速。 若将橡胶与有色、贵金属等强势商品进行比较，其估值处于历史低位。若橡胶 估值的七年周期依然有效，2026 年将大概率是从跌幅收窄转向涨幅扩大的转折之 年。 在商品整体不出现回落的情况下，橡胶板块走 ...

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（26-02-27） 【市场情况】 丁二烯橡胶：高顺顺丁连月增产 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力完成换月，05 合约报收 12760 点，下跌-40 点 或-1.31%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 12600 元/吨，山东民营 顺丁报收 12200-12300 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 12600 元/吨，华南地 区茂名石化顺丁报收 12500-12800 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 12800-12900 元/吨。山东地区丁二烯报收 10300-10400 元/吨。 (潘盛杰 投资咨询证号：Z0014607；以上观点仅供参考，不作为入市依据) RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 17080 点，下跌-45 点或- 0.26%。截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 17000-17100 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 17150-17200 元/吨。NR 主力完成换月，05 合约报收 13865 点，下跌-45 点或 -0.32%；新加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 200.2 点，下跌-0.6 点或 ...

成文日期：2026年2月13日 报告周期:周报 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) a成橡胶期货周报 一、行情回顾 本周（2026年 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日）上海期货交易所丁二烯橡 胶期货主力合约呈现先上涨后回落，周五收于周内低点的走势。该 合约于 2 月 9 日以 12765 元/吨开盘、盘中最高触及 13175 元/吨, 最低下探至 12490 元/吨，截至 2 月 13 日收盘报 12505 元/吨，较 上周五收盘下跌 285 元/吨。周五持仓 14990 手，持续减仓。 二、现货市场情况 1. 产业链价格变动 本周丁二烯现货价格呈现先扬后抑走势，2 月 9 日现货价为 1472.20 美元/吨，随后连续三日上涨,一于２月 11 日达到 1504.74 美元/吨的周内高点、之后小幅回落、2 月 13 日报收 1477.92 美元/ 吨,较周初小幅上涨 0.39%。 苯乙烯作为丁二烯橡胶的主要原料，本周价格波动下行，从 2 月 9 日的 1111.37 美元/吨跌至 2 月 13 日的 1093.95 美元/吨,累计 下跌 1.57%、对丁二烯橡 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables is 5.60 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.3%, with celery, lettuce, and cabbage rising by 5.7%, 5.0%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with citrus, pears, and grapes rising by 1.0%, 1.0%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with large hairtail, silver carp, and carp rising by 1.2%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of pork is 18.98 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.5%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising by 0.1%, while peanut oil and rice remained unchanged, and flour decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices showed a slight decline, with white strip chicken remaining stable and eggs decreasing by 0.6% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to decline, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 1.1%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices slightly decreased, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber falling by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable with slight declines, where ordinary medium plates and welded steel pipes were priced at 3620 yuan and 3708 yuan per ton, respectively, while hot-rolled strip steel and rebar decreased by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices remained stable, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 777 yuan and 1043 yuan per ton, respectively, while anthracite coal decreased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials remained stable, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene unchanged, while methanol decreased by 0.2% [2] - Wholesale prices of finished oil showed slight increases, with 95 gasoline and 0 diesel remaining stable, while 92 gasoline increased by 0.2% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with urea rising by 0.3%, while compound fertilizers remained unchanged [2]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价呈现较大振幅，其中 WTI 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.21 美元至 | | | | 65.21 美元/桶，跌幅 0.32%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.1 美元至 | | | | 70.75 美元/桶，跌幅 0.14%。主力合约 SC2604 以 489.8 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.6 元/桶，涨幅 0.74%。当地时间 2 月 26 日，据伊朗方面消 | | | | 息，当天在瑞士日内瓦与美国举行的间接谈判中，伊朗表示拒绝 | | | | 向国外转移其浓缩铀。据悉，伊朗在谈判中坚持保留和平利用核 | | | | 技术的权利以及生产核燃料的能力，并要求美国解除对伊朗的制 | | | 原油 | 裁。美国与伊朗在日内瓦结束第三轮核谈判，距离特朗普设定的 | 震荡 | | | 达成协议最后期限仅剩数日。调解方阿曼称美国和伊朗的日内瓦 | | | | 会谈取得进展，下周将继续技术面磋商。美国官员称美伊核谈判 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the TA has turned to inventory accumulation, with its processing fees and PXN compressed. Considering the improved cash - flow in downstream sectors, limited further increase in PX supply, and no obvious increase in TA device load, the valuation is becoming reasonable. One can focus on phased positive spreads and long - position opportunities [1] - For MEG, after the EG valuation is compressed again, the reduction in supply increases. Although short - term inventory accumulation continues, the certainty of future inventory reduction is increasing. During the production cycle, the overall elasticity is limited, and one can focus on short - term put - selling opportunities [2] - For polyester staple fiber, the downstream seasonality is expected to continue to weaken, and it has entered the pre - holiday load - reduction stage. The absolute inventory pressure is not large, with medium - low valuation and weak driving force, and the overall contradiction is limited. One should pay attention to the situation of warehouse receipts [2] - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Data**: From February 12 to February 26, 2026, the price of PTA spot, PX, and other related products changed. For example, the PTA spot price fluctuated, and the PX - naphtha spread changed. The daily average transaction basis of PTA spot was 2605(-57). The Yisheng New Material's 3.6 - million - ton device restarted [1] - **Industry Situation**: Some TA devices in the plate were under maintenance, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, the polyester load continued to decline, the inventory continued to accumulate, the basis was basically stable, and the spot processing fee improved month - on - month. The domestic restart of PX continued, the overseas load was stable, the PXN spread widened month - on - month, the disproportionation and isomerization benefits were stable, and the aromatics spread between the US and Asia improved month - on - month [1] MEG - **Market Data**: From February 12 to February 26, 2026, the prices of MEG in different forms (such as coal - based MEG, MEG in ports, etc.) changed. The basis of MEG spot was around 05(-94). The 300,000 - ton device of Shanxi Wonen restarted [2] - **Industry Situation**: The domestic oil - based production was stable, while the coal - based production restarted, and the overall start - up rate increased slightly. The arrival at ports was stable, and the port inventory continued to be obvious at the beginning of next week. The holiday arrival forecast was neutral, the basis strengthened slightly, and the coal - based production efficiency shrank [2] Polyester Staple Fiber - **Market Data**: The spot price was around 6660, and the market basis was around 04 - 120. From February 1 to February 6, 2026, the prices of relevant products such as polyester staple fiber and pure polyester yarn changed [2] - **Industry Situation**: The pre - holiday maintenance of the plate - end devices continued, the start - up rate further decreased to 68.3%, the sales were weak, the inventory increased month - on - month, and the spot processing fee was stable month - on - month. On the demand side, the start - up rate of the polyester yarn end continued to decline, the raw material inventory and finished - product inventory were stable, and the efficiency was stable month - on - month [2] Natural Rubber and 20 - number Rubber - **Market Data**: From February 1 to February 26, 2026, the prices of various types of natural rubber (such as US - dollar - denominated Thai mixed rubber, Thai standard rubber, etc.) changed. The daily and weekly changes of relevant spreads (such as the spread between mixed rubber and RU main contract) were also provided [3] - **Industry Situation**: The main contradiction is not clearly stated in the text, and the strategy is to wait and see [3] Styrene - **Market Data**: From February 12 to February 26, 2026, the prices of styrene - related products (such as ethylene, pure benzene, etc.) changed. The daily changes of the prices of ABS, EPS, PS, and their production profits were also provided [5] - **Industry Situation**: The production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS changed, and the start - up rates of EPS, ABS, and PS also showed different trends [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-02-27 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 利多因素消化，沪胶震荡偏弱 | | 合成胶 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏空因素占优，合成胶震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：春节长假期间，海外天然橡胶市场偏强运行，日胶与泰国原料 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-27 2026/02/27 原油 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.00 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 483.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.81%，报 2987.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 4.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.12%，报 3460.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 15.99 百万桶至 435.80 百万桶，环比累库 3.81%；SPR 补库 0.00 百万桶至 415.44 百万桶，环比补库 0.00%；汽油库存去库 1.01 百万桶 至 254.83 百万桶，环比去库 0.40%；柴油库存累库 0.25 百万桶至 120.35 百万桶，环比累库 0.21%；燃料油库存去库 0.11 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比去库 0.46%；航空煤油库存去库 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xusha ...