STO(002468) 申万宏源·2024-09-12 12:11Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The express delivery industry is showing signs of price stabilization and continued high demand growth, indicating a rebound in the sector [5][28]. - The company is expected to experience a profit release period in 2024, driven by capacity enhancements and improved service efficiency [5][28]. - The report anticipates significant growth in the company's business volume and net profit over the next three years, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30% for business volume in 2024 [5][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The express delivery industry saw a year-on-year volume growth of 19.4% in 2023, despite a decline in average prices by 4.33% [13][24]. - The supply side is tightening, with capital expenditures decreasing, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and potential price stabilization [5][20]. Company Growth Potential - The company is focusing on enhancing its capacity and service quality, with significant investments in upgrading transfer centers [5][29]. - The market share is gradually increasing, and the company is expected to achieve a business volume of 228 billion, 273 billion, and 311 billion pieces from 2024 to 2026, respectively [5][7]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is set at 1.006 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 195.3% [6][7]. Financial Projections - The report projects total revenue for 2024 to be 49.62 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.3% [6][7]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 0.66 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 16x [6][7]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a high growth trajectory, with net profit expected to reach 1.685 billion by 2026 [6][7].