韩轶超 鲁斯嘉 胡俊文 SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨申通快递（002468.SZ） [Table_Title] 量本利正循环加速，业绩弹性持续兑现 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4，公司营业收入为 136.8 亿元，同比增长 18.0%；归母净利润为 3.9 亿元，同比增长 223.8%。2025Q1，公司营业收入为 120.0 亿元，同比增长 18.4%；归母净利润为 2.4 亿元， 同比增长 24.0%。四季度公司件量增速领跑，规模效应释放下单票归母净利同比增长 0.035 元 至 0.059 元。2025Q1，行业竞争逐步加剧，公司发力精益化管理叠加件量增长强劲推动降本， 有效对冲价格竞争压力，单票归母净利达到 0.041 元，同比持平。展望后市，申通进入管理变 革的收获期，以体验和利润为先，寻求量利齐升的健康发展，单票利润提升值得期待。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 1 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 申通快递（00246 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Views - The company continues to enhance its competitiveness, achieving simultaneous growth in volume and profit [1]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 15.26% year-on-year increase in 2024 and an 18.43% increase in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased daily transactions with Alibaba Group, projecting a significant rise in related transactions for 2025 [11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 471.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion, up 205.24% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 119.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 2.36 billion, up 24.04% [6]. - The company completed 227.3 billion express deliveries in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, and maintained a market share of 13.0% [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively managed costs through various strategies, resulting in improved single-package profitability in 2024 and stable performance in Q1 2025 [8][10]. - The single-package express revenue decreased to 2.05 yuan in 2024, while the single-package cost was reduced to 1.94 yuan, leading to a gross profit of 0.11 yuan [9][10]. - In Q1 2025, the single-package express revenue was 2.04 yuan, with costs at 1.95 yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 0.12 yuan [10]. Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 537.86 billion, 605.17 billion, and 666.53 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.79 billion, 17.35 billion, and 19.94 billion [12][13]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 14%, 13%, and 10% for the years 2025 to 2027, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 33%, 26%, and 15% [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.2% [4][10]. - The company has successfully completed a three-year capacity enhancement plan, significantly increasing its processing capabilities and maintaining a leading growth rate in package volume [5][7]. - Despite a decline in revenue per package due to market competition, the company achieved substantial revenue growth driven by high package volume [5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%, with a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 24.0% [4][10]. - The company’s package volume reached 22.73 billion pieces in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, with a market share of 12.98% [5][10]. - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.4 billion yuan, 1.68 billion yuan, and 1.9 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 34.4%, 20.5%, and 13.1% [7][10]. Cost Management - The company has successfully reduced its cost per package by 9.7% to 1.94 yuan in 2024, with significant reductions in delivery, transfer, and transportation costs [6][10]. - The report highlights effective cost control measures, with a decrease in various expense ratios, indicating a positive trend in expense management [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [7][12]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.17 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 205.2% [4][10]. - The company has successfully completed a three-year capacity enhancement plan, significantly increasing its processing capabilities and maintaining a leading growth rate in package volume [5][7]. - Despite a decline in revenue per package due to market competition, the company achieved substantial revenue growth driven by high package volume [5][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 10.62 yuan - Total shares: 1.531 billion, circulating shares: 1.492 billion - Total market capitalization: 16.3 billion yuan, circulating market capitalization: 15.8 billion yuan - 52-week high/low: 12.40/7.74 yuan - Debt-to-asset ratio: 61.3% - Price-to-earnings ratio: 15.39 [3]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 12.0 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, an increase of 24.0% [4][10]. - The company’s package volume reached 22.73 billion in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, with a market share of 12.98% [5]. - The company’s cost per package decreased by 9.7% to 1.94 yuan in 2024, with continued cost reduction trends into Q1 2025 [6]. Future Outlook - The company aims to focus on its core express delivery business, enhance infrastructure, and implement refined management practices to drive cost reduction and efficiency [7]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.4 billion, 1.68 billion, and 1.9 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 34.4%, 20.5%, and 13.1% respectively [7][10].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported significant growth in net profit for 2024 and Q1 2025, indicating strong operational performance and market position [1][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.04 billion, a year-on-year increase of 205.2%; the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.02 billion, up 199.5% [1]. - For Q1 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 236 million, a year-on-year increase of 24.0%; the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 231 million, up 23.8% [1]. Operational Metrics - In 2024, the company completed 22.73 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, with a market share of 13.0%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company completed 5.81 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%, with a market share of 12.9%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points [2]. Revenue and Cost Analysis - In 2024, the average revenue per parcel was 2.05 yuan, a decrease of 8.1% year-on-year; the average revenue from information services was 0.09 yuan, down 0.02 yuan; the average revenue from paid delivery was 1.20 yuan, down 0.12 yuan; and the average revenue from transit was 0.76 yuan, down 0.04 yuan [2]. - In Q1 2025, the average revenue per parcel was 2.04 yuan, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year [3]. - The average cost per parcel in 2024 was 1.94 yuan, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year; the delivery cost was 1.22 yuan, down 9.7%; and the transportation cost was 0.37 yuan, down 9.1% [3]. Profitability Metrics - In 2024, the gross profit per parcel was 0.125 yuan, an increase of 28% year-on-year; for Q1 2025, it was 0.117 yuan, a decrease of 10% [3]. - The net profit per parcel attributable to shareholders in 2024 was 0.046 yuan, an increase of 135% year-on-year; for Q1 2025, it was 0.041 yuan, remaining flat [3]. Capital Expenditure and Capacity Expansion - The company successfully completed a three-year capacity enhancement plan, implementing 179 projects, significantly increasing processing capacity [3]. - In 2024, the company completed 42 projects, achieving a daily processing capacity of over 75 million parcels, with the ability to handle over 100 million parcels during peak periods [3]. - The company expects to increase its daily processing capacity to over 90 million parcels in 2025 [3]. Market Position and Investment Outlook - For the first three months of 2025, the company led the industry in business volume growth at 26.6%, outperforming competitors [4]. - Based on the company's performance and current industry trends, profit forecasts for 2025-2026 have been slightly adjusted to 1.45 billion and 1.81 billion, respectively [4]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 14.17 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 33% from the current price, with a recommendation for "buy" [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 205.2%, driven by capacity release and efficiency improvements [1] - The company plans to continue enhancing its operational efficiency and cost management in response to intense regional price competition in the logistics industry [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from a double-digit growth in industry parcel volume in 2025, with a projected net profit of 14.6 billion, 17.2 billion, and 20.1 billion for 2025-2027, respectively [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 471.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.4 billion, up 205.2% [1] - The company completed 227.29 billion parcels in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.83%, achieving a market share of 12.98% [2] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 119.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 2.36 billion, up 24.04% [1][3] Operational Strategy - The company aims to enhance its service quality and operational efficiency by focusing on customer needs and technological advancements [3] - The company has completed 42 expansion projects in 2024, increasing its daily throughput capacity to over 75 million parcels [2] - The company plans to further improve its capacity and service quality through partnerships and infrastructure development in 2025 [3]

Group 1: Company Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a business volume of 22.729 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 29.8% [1] - The market share reached 13.0%, up by 0.83 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - Revenue for 2024 was CNY 47.17 billion, reflecting a growth of 15.3%, with express delivery revenue at CNY 46.65 billion, up 19.3% [1] Group 2: Cost and Profitability Metrics - The single-piece express delivery cost was CNY 1.94, a decrease of CNY 0.21 year-on-year [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was CNY 1.04 billion, a significant increase of 205.2% [2] - Operating cash flow for 2024 was CNY 3.94 billion, with capital expenditure at CNY 3.25 billion, indicating improved free cash flow [2] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Plans - The company plans to enhance profitability through revenue growth and cost reduction, focusing on expanding reverse and scattered parcel volumes [2] - Capital expenditure is expected to maintain 2024 levels, with daily throughput capacity projected to exceed 90 million pieces by 2025 [2] - The company is exploring the use of unmanned vehicles for last-mile delivery to improve efficiency and reduce costs [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Challenges - The shift of foreign trade enterprises to domestic sales is anticipated to boost demand in the logistics sector [3] - The company aims to balance market share and profitability by focusing on economic express delivery and leveraging artificial intelligence [3] - The recent cancellation of the "refund only" policy by e-commerce platforms is expected to optimize the e-commerce environment, although its immediate impact on delivery volume remains unclear [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.15 [7][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 471.7 billion and a net profit of RMB 10.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 205.2% respectively. For Q1 2025, the revenue is projected at RMB 120.0 billion with a net profit of RMB 2.4 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and 24.0% [1][2]. - The company has successfully increased its market share to 12.98% in 2024, with a significant growth in express delivery volume of 29.8%, outperforming the industry average [2][3]. - The acquisition of the Yiwu transit center is expected to enhance overall network efficiency, leading to increased volume and revenue [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total express delivery volume of 227.29 billion pieces, with a unit cost reduction of 9.1% to RMB 1.95 per piece, and a gross profit per piece increase of 27.6% to RMB 0.12 [2][4]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 17% to RMB 13.2 billion, and for 2026 by 13% to RMB 16.4 billion, with an additional forecast for 2027 at RMB 19.4 billion [4][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its service capabilities and optimizing management, which is expected to sustain its volume growth above the industry average [4][6]. - The company’s average delivery price decreased by 8.1% in 2024, which is greater than the industry decline of 6.3%, indicating a strategic shift towards volume over price [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 17.6x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 11.7x, reflecting its superior growth prospects [4][6]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.86, with a continuous upward trend expected in subsequent years [4][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.15 [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 471.7 billion and a net profit of RMB 10.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 205.2% respectively. For Q1 2025, the revenue was RMB 120.0 billion with a net profit of RMB 2.4 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and 24.0% [1][2]. - The growth in performance is attributed to a higher volume growth than the industry average and cost reductions due to economies of scale. Despite increased competition in the industry, the company is expected to enhance its service capabilities and maintain market share growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a total express delivery volume of 22.729 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, surpassing the industry growth rate of 21.5%. The average price per piece decreased by 8.1% to RMB 2.05, which is a larger decline than the industry average of 6.3% [2]. - The single-piece cost decreased by 9.1% to RMB 1.95, while the gross profit per piece increased by 27.6% to RMB 0.12. The company continues to invest in automation and digital transformation [2]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of the Yiwu transfer center is expected to optimize network efficiency and increase volume and revenue. The company’s daily throughput capacity is projected to increase from 75 million pieces in 2024 to over 90 million pieces in 2025 [3]. - The acquisition of the Yiwu assets, which handle a daily average of 34.6 million pieces, is a significant step in the company's strategy to enhance its operational efficiency and expand its market presence [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 17% and 13% respectively, to RMB 1.323 billion and RMB 1.642 billion. A new forecast for 2027 is set at RMB 1.942 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.86, 1.07, and 1.27 [4][6]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 17.6x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 11.7x, reflecting the company's superior volume growth and profitability potential [4].

Core Insights - Shentong Express has reported significant growth in both profit and express business volume, with a total revenue of 47.169 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 15.26% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 205.24%, achieving a historical high [1] - The company's aggressive pricing strategy has contributed to its performance, although it has the lowest average revenue per package among its peers in the "Tongda" system [1][2] - The competitive landscape remains intense, particularly in the "battle for third place" among Shentong and Yunda [1][5] Financial Performance - In 2024, Shentong's business volume reached 22.729 billion packages, a 29.83% increase, with a market share of 12.98%, up 0.83 percentage points [3] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 11.999 billion yuan, an 18.43% increase, and a net profit of 236 million yuan, up 24.04% [3] - The average daily package processing volume has increased from less than 30 million three years ago to over 75 million in 2024 [3] Strategic Initiatives - Shentong has completed its three-year capacity enhancement plan, implementing 179 projects to improve processing capabilities [3] - The acquisition of the Yiwu transfer center is a strategic move to enhance management of key routes and improve operational efficiency [4] - The company aims to increase its daily throughput capacity to over 90 million packages by 2025 [3] Market Position and Competition - The competition with Yunda remains fierce, with Shentong briefly surpassing Yunda in business volume earlier this year before being overtaken again [6][7] - The potential exercise of Alibaba's stock options could lead to significant changes in Shentong's market position and operational management [7] - The company's financial metrics indicate challenges ahead, with a 40% decline in operating cash flow and a debt ratio of 62.53%, the highest in its history [6][7]