STO(002468) 华泰证券·2025-04-25 12:20Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.15 [7][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 471.7 billion and a net profit of RMB 10.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 205.2% respectively. For Q1 2025, the revenue is projected at RMB 120.0 billion with a net profit of RMB 2.4 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and 24.0% [1][2]. - The company has successfully increased its market share to 12.98% in 2024, with a significant growth in express delivery volume of 29.8%, outperforming the industry average [2][3]. - The acquisition of the Yiwu transit center is expected to enhance overall network efficiency, leading to increased volume and revenue [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total express delivery volume of 227.29 billion pieces, with a unit cost reduction of 9.1% to RMB 1.95 per piece, and a gross profit per piece increase of 27.6% to RMB 0.12 [2][4]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 17% to RMB 13.2 billion, and for 2026 by 13% to RMB 16.4 billion, with an additional forecast for 2027 at RMB 19.4 billion [4][6]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its service capabilities and optimizing management, which is expected to sustain its volume growth above the industry average [4][6]. - The company’s average delivery price decreased by 8.1% in 2024, which is greater than the industry decline of 6.3%, indicating a strategic shift towards volume over price [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 17.6x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 11.7x, reflecting its superior growth prospects [4][6]. - The projected EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.86, with a continuous upward trend expected in subsequent years [4][6].