Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the operational status of various express delivery companies during the upcoming Spring Festival, highlighting that most companies will continue to provide services but may implement additional charges due to increased demand and resource allocation challenges [2][4][5][6]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post Express Logistics confirmed that it will operate year-round but may introduce additional charges for pick-up services, with specific details to be announced later [4]. - JD Logistics indicated that during the peak period from January 19 to February 23, 2026, it will impose a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg on express heavy cargo, depending on the station [4]. - SF Express announced that it will charge a resource adjustment fee during the Spring Festival from February 16 to February 23, with reports of price increases in certain areas [5]. - YTO Express stated that it will maintain normal operations except for certain regions affected by third-party logistics or weather, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-provincial and 4-5 days for inter-provincial deliveries [5]. - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with some areas experiencing delays and potential price increases [6]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Companies are preparing for potential delays in delivery times due to limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [6]. - Different express delivery companies may have varying operational statuses based on local conditions, with some branches still awaiting specific instructions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around whether express delivery services will be suspended during the Spring Festival has garnered attention, with major companies confirming they will continue to provide services during this period [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Responses - China Post will continue to provide services from February 15 to 23, allowing users to submit collection requests through various online channels and providing customer service via a dedicated hotline [1]. - SF Express will ensure the operation of express delivery services during the Spring Festival, adjusting service fees for certain shipments, with additional resource adjustment fees applied during the holiday [1]. - YTO Express will maintain service availability during the Spring Festival, with normal operations in most regions, except for areas affected by third-party logistics disruptions or weather conditions [2]. - Shentong Express will adjust operations based on local conditions, with most areas expected to have normal collection and delivery services, advising users to confirm specific times with local outlets [2]. - Zhongtong Express will also ensure stable logistics support during the Spring Festival, while JD Logistics commits to providing comprehensive logistics safety and service coverage, including same-day and next-day delivery options [3]. Group 2: Service Adjustments and Fees - SF Express will charge a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.5 yuan/kg for shipments over 20kg from January 19 to February 15, with additional fees during the holiday period [1]. - JD Logistics will implement a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg for express heavy goods during the Spring Festival [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from the Spring Festival travel peak, leading to a positive outlook for airline stocks. The report highlights a significant increase in flight operations and passenger volumes during this period, indicating a recovery in demand [4][6] - The report emphasizes the potential for oil transportation to rise, driven by geopolitical factors and structural demand growth, suggesting a favorable investment environment in the shipping sector [6][7] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the aviation sector, particularly focusing on major airlines and low-cost carriers that are expected to benefit from rising ticket prices and improved operational performance [4][6] - It also highlights the logistics and express delivery sectors, noting the positive earnings forecast for companies like SF Express, which is capitalizing on the growth of instant delivery services [6] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily flight operations from February 2 to February 6 showed significant increases for major airlines, with Eastern Airlines and Southern Airlines leading the growth [4] - The average aircraft utilization rates also improved, indicating a recovery in operational efficiency across the sector [4] Shipping Data Tracking - The report tracks various shipping indices, noting a mixed performance in container shipping but a positive trend in oil transportation indices, suggesting a potential upturn in the oil shipping market [6][7] - The report recommends focusing on companies in the oil shipping sector due to limited supply and structural demand growth [6][7] Logistics Data Tracking - The report provides data on logistics performance, indicating a substantial increase in express delivery volumes, which is expected to continue benefiting from the growth in e-commerce and instant delivery services [6] - It highlights the importance of addressing industry challenges such as competition and regulatory changes to maintain profitability [6] Company Performance Tracking - The report includes performance metrics for key companies in the aviation and logistics sectors, showcasing their earnings forecasts and operational improvements [4][6] - It emphasizes the strategic positioning of companies like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to leverage their market positions for growth [4][6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "express delivery suspension" trending on social media has caused public anxiety, prompting multiple express delivery companies to announce their service arrangements during the Spring Festival, ensuring continued collection and delivery services to meet holiday demand [1] Group 1: Company Responses - SF Express and Debon Express confirmed that they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, although transportation fees will be adjusted. SF Express will impose a resource adjustment fee from February 16 to February 23, with some areas experiencing a price increase of 10 yuan [4] - China Post Express Logistics stated that they will operate year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services, with specific regulations to be announced later [5] - JD Logistics indicated that service availability may vary based on express delivery volume during the Spring Festival, with potential resource adjustment fees depending on the station [5] - YTO Express announced that from February 15 to February 23, they will ensure service continuity and network stability, with normal operations in most regions except for certain areas affected by third-party logistics suspensions or weather conditions [9] - Yunda Express confirmed normal operations during the Spring Festival, with potential delays of 2-3 days for intra-province and 4-5 days for inter-province deliveries [9] - Zhongtong Express stated they will reasonably ensure customer delivery needs and maintain smooth logistics support, with variations in service based on local conditions [9] - Shentong Express affirmed they will operate normally during the Spring Festival, with possible adjustments to service arrangements and fees based on local circumstances [9] Group 2: Service Impact and Adjustments - Express delivery companies warned that service efficiency may be affected by limited resource allocation and extreme weather conditions during the holiday period [8]

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Core Viewpoint - The topic of "express delivery suspension" has gained significant attention on social media as the Chinese New Year approaches, leading to public anxiety and increased online orders [1][2]. Group 1: Company Responses - Multiple express delivery companies have responded to the concerns about potential service suspensions during the holiday period. Zhongtong Express stated that they have not received any notice of suspension and typically do not charge resource adjustment fees during the Spring Festival [4]. - YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express confirmed that they will continue operations during the Spring Festival and have not received any notifications regarding price increases [4]. - China Post Express Logistics indicated that while they operate year-round, there may be additional charges for pick-up services, with specific regulations to be announced later [5]. Group 2: Pricing Adjustments - JD Logistics mentioned that depending on the delivery volume during the Spring Festival, some stations may implement scheduling changes and charge resource adjustment fees. Their announcement specified that from January 19, 2026, to February 23, 2026, a peak resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.2 yuan/kg will be added to express heavy cargo products [6]. - SF Express and Debon Express also confirmed that they will not suspend operations during the holiday but will adjust transportation fees. SF Express announced a resource adjustment fee of 0.1 to 1.5 yuan/kg for certain products weighing 20kg or more from January 19 to February 15, 2026, and additional fees during the holiday period [7]. - Debon Express will charge a resource adjustment fee of 0.2 to 0.5 yuan/kg for certain customers and products from January 19 to February 14, 2026, with additional fees during the Spring Festival [7].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics and express delivery services in China will continue to operate during the Spring Festival period from February 15 to February 23, 2026, with various companies implementing specific measures to ensure service continuity and efficiency [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9]. Group 1: Company Arrangements - China Post will provide delivery services during the Spring Festival, with options for online booking and potential delays due to holiday factors [1]. - JD Logistics will ensure logistics safety and efficient delivery for popular products, with all "Asia No. 1" smart industrial parks operating around the clock [2]. - Zhongtong Express will maintain uninterrupted service during the Spring Festival, with staff arrangements based on business needs [3]. - SF Express has prepared for potential delays due to resource allocation and weather, with dynamic adjustments to service fees [4]. - YTO Express will ensure smooth operations and network stability, with some areas experiencing service limitations due to third-party logistics or weather [5]. - Shentong Express will operate normally during the holiday, with possible adjustments based on local conditions [6]. - Yunda Express will maintain normal operations, with some areas facing delays of 2-5 days [7]. - Debang Express will adjust service fees dynamically during peak periods to meet delivery demands [8]. - Best Express will suspend operations from February 11 to February 23, 2026, with potential delays in delivery times [9]. Group 2: Service Fees and Adjustments - JD Logistics will charge a resource adjustment fee of 0.1-1.2 yuan/kg for express heavy goods during the holiday period [2]. - SF Express will implement a resource adjustment fee of 0.1-1.5 yuan/kg for certain products before and during the Spring Festival [4]. - Debang Express will charge a fee of 0.2-0.5 yuan/kg for specific customers and products leading up to the holiday [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "express delivery suspension" topic has sparked significant discussion on social media, leading to public anxiety. However, multiple express delivery companies have announced their operational plans for the Spring Festival, confirming that they will continue to provide delivery services to meet holiday demand [1] Group 1: Company Responses - YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express have confirmed that they will operate normally during the Spring Festival and have not received any notifications regarding price increases [1] - Zhongtong Express has stated that it has not received any suspension notices and will not impose additional charges during the Spring Festival [1] - JD Logistics indicated that there may be scheduling adjustments at some stations during the Spring Festival, which could incur resource adjustment fees [1] - SF Express and Debon Express have both confirmed that they will not suspend operations during the Spring Festival, although fees may be adjusted [1] - China Post Express Logistics has stated that it operates year-round but may implement additional charges for pickup services during the Spring Festival, with specific regulations to be announced later [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shentong Express announced a management change, with Wang Wenbin promoted to Vice Chairman and Han Yongyan appointed as General Manager, effective from the board's approval date until the end of the sixth board term [1]. Group 1: Management Changes - Wang Wenbin has resigned as General Manager but will continue as Vice Chairman and hold several committee positions within the company [1]. - Han Yongyan, previously the Deputy General Manager, has been promoted to General Manager [1]. Group 2: Background of Key Personnel - Wang Wenbin has extensive experience in technology and logistics, having held significant positions at Alibaba and Cainiao Network before joining Shentong Express [2]. - Han Yongyan has a background in logistics, previously serving as CEO of DeBang Logistics and holding various roles at Cainiao Network and Shentong Express [4]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, Shentong Express reported revenue of 13.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.62%, and a net profit of 302 million yuan, up 40.32% [5]. - The company holds a market share of 13%, comparable to Yunda, and ranks behind Zhongtong and Yuantong among franchise express companies [5]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Shentong Express acquired 100% of Zhejiang Dan Niao Logistics Technology Co., Ltd. for 362 million yuan to enhance its express network [5]. - Wang Wenbin emphasized a strategic shift towards prioritizing customer experience and a dual network operation model, highlighting the importance of the Dan Niao acquisition for brand enhancement [5].