STO(002468) 华泰证券·2025-04-25 11:10Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 15.15 [7][8]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 471.7 billion and a net profit of RMB 10.4 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3% and 205.2% respectively. For Q1 2025, the revenue was RMB 120.0 billion with a net profit of RMB 2.4 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 18.4% and 24.0% [1][2]. - The growth in performance is attributed to a higher volume growth than the industry average and cost reductions due to economies of scale. Despite increased competition in the industry, the company is expected to enhance its service capabilities and maintain market share growth [1][4]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company achieved a total express delivery volume of 22.729 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 29.8%, surpassing the industry growth rate of 21.5%. The average price per piece decreased by 8.1% to RMB 2.05, which is a larger decline than the industry average of 6.3% [2]. - The single-piece cost decreased by 9.1% to RMB 1.95, while the gross profit per piece increased by 27.6% to RMB 0.12. The company continues to invest in automation and digital transformation [2]. Strategic Developments - The acquisition of the Yiwu transfer center is expected to optimize network efficiency and increase volume and revenue. The company’s daily throughput capacity is projected to increase from 75 million pieces in 2024 to over 90 million pieces in 2025 [3]. - The acquisition of the Yiwu assets, which handle a daily average of 34.6 million pieces, is a significant step in the company's strategy to enhance its operational efficiency and expand its market presence [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been raised by 17% and 13% respectively, to RMB 1.323 billion and RMB 1.642 billion. A new forecast for 2027 is set at RMB 1.942 billion, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.86, 1.07, and 1.27 [4][6]. - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 17.6x for 2025, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 11.7x, reflecting the company's superior volume growth and profitability potential [4].