STO(002468) 国海证券·2025-04-27 13:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Views - The company continues to enhance its competitiveness, achieving simultaneous growth in volume and profit [1]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 15.26% year-on-year increase in 2024 and an 18.43% increase in Q1 2025 [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from increased daily transactions with Alibaba Group, projecting a significant rise in related transactions for 2025 [11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 471.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.40 billion, up 205.24% [6]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 119.99 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.43%, and a net profit of 2.36 billion, up 24.04% [6]. - The company completed 227.3 billion express deliveries in 2024, a growth of 29.8%, and maintained a market share of 13.0% [7]. Cost Management and Profitability - The company has effectively managed costs through various strategies, resulting in improved single-package profitability in 2024 and stable performance in Q1 2025 [8][10]. - The single-package express revenue decreased to 2.05 yuan in 2024, while the single-package cost was reduced to 1.94 yuan, leading to a gross profit of 0.11 yuan [9][10]. - In Q1 2025, the single-package express revenue was 2.04 yuan, with costs at 1.95 yuan, resulting in a gross profit of 0.12 yuan [10]. Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 537.86 billion, 605.17 billion, and 666.53 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 13.79 billion, 17.35 billion, and 19.94 billion [12][13]. - The projected growth rates for revenue are 14%, 13%, and 10% for the years 2025 to 2027, while net profit growth rates are expected to be 33%, 26%, and 15% [12][13].