Gemdale(600383) 海通证券·2024-09-13 06:18Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's gross profit margin is under pressure, and impairment provisions have significantly impacted its operating performance [4] - Despite market challenges, the company remains a top-tier player in sales, focusing on high-tier cities [4] - Diversified businesses continue to show high-quality growth, with improvements in key operating indicators for commercial properties and property services [4] - The company is actively disposing of assets to maintain financial safety, with a net debt ratio of 53.0% and a weighted average cost of debt financing at 4.38% [4] - The report suggests that the current net profit does not reflect potential future earnings, and there is room for asset price recovery [5] Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company reported revenue of RMB 21.129 billion, a YoY decrease of 42.67%, with real estate business revenue dropping by 54.72% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 1H24 was RMB -3.361 billion, a YoY decrease of 319.39% [4] - The gross profit margin for real estate business settlement was 9.24%, down by 5.63 percentage points YoY [4] - The company's total land reserves are approximately 35.89 million square meters, with 75% located in first and second-tier cities [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts a 2024 EPS of RMB -0.38 and a net asset value per share of RMB 14.03, with a PB valuation range of 0.35-0.40x, corresponding to a reasonable value range of RMB 4.91-5.61 per share [5] - Revenue is expected to decline by 22.6% YoY in 2024, with a net profit of RMB -1.736 billion [6] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 11.0% in 2024, with a net profit margin of -2.3% [6] Industry Comparison - The company's valuation is compared with peers such as Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou, and Poly Development, showing a lower market cap and negative EPS for 2024 [9] Financial Ratios and Metrics - The company's debt-to-asset ratio was 68.3% as of 1H24, with a net debt ratio of 53.0% [4] - The company's cash and cash equivalents stood at RMB 23.116 billion as of 1H24, a YoY decrease of 49.8% [8] - The company's ROE (diluted) was -5.30% in 1H24, down by 7.63 percentage points YoY [8]