Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price adjusted to HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 32.1% from the current price of HKD 4.77 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slowdown in growth for the first half of 2024, with revenue expected to increase by 9.0% year-on-year to approximately RMB 6.838 billion. The overall revenue growth for the year is projected to slow to around 10% due to market adjustments [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2024 improved by 0.8 percentage points to 16.8%, outperforming the general decline seen in peers [2]. - The company achieved a balance between scale expansion and profit, maintaining a target of 1:1 for internal and external growth in property management [2]. - The report anticipates that the company will continue to achieve double-digit growth in revenue and profit over the next two to three years, supported by strong external expansion capabilities and stable delivery from state-owned enterprises [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 14.337 billion (growth of 9.9%) - 2025E: RMB 16.514 billion (growth of 15.2%) - 2026E: RMB 18.930 billion (growth of 14.6%) [3][7]. - Core profit estimates are projected to be: - 2024E: RMB 1.544 billion - 2025E: RMB 1.785 billion - 2026E: RMB 2.058 billion [3][7]. - The report notes a decrease in net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by approximately 17.5% and 26.1%, respectively, due to the downward adjustment in revenue expectations [2][3]. Market Performance - The company's stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 18.60%, with a 52-week high of HKD 9.58 and a low of HKD 4.05 [5][6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 5.61 million shares, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 15.664 billion [5].
中海物业：下调目标价，预期规模及盈利增长放缓