Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the significance of Shanghai's new policy to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental housing, indicating a strong signal in a declining market. The policy aims to link demand for affordable housing with improvement needs, potentially activating the market by directing purchasing power to higher-priced new and second-hand homes [11][12] - The report emphasizes that the real estate sector serves as an early economic indicator, suggesting that investing in real estate is akin to investing in economic trends. The competitive landscape is expected to improve, benefiting leading state-owned enterprises and quality developers [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier cities and select second- and third-tier cities, as this combination has shown better performance during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections 1. Shanghai's Housing Acquisition Policy - Shanghai has initiated a program to acquire second-hand housing for affordable rental purposes, with pilot areas including Pudong, Jing'an, and Xuhui, each having distinct acquisition criteria and models [11] - The policy aims to match housing types with talent needs, focusing on low-priced, small-sized properties to stimulate market activity [12] 2. Market Review - The report notes that the real estate index has shown minimal change, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.34 percentage points. A total of 73 stocks in the real estate sector increased in value, while 40 stocks decreased [15] - The top-performing stocks included Jinglan Technology and Qianjing Garden, with significant weekly gains [21] 3. New and Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the week leading up to February 6, new housing transactions in 30 cities totaled 131.2 million square meters, a 5.2% decrease from the previous week but a 138.2% increase year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 4.0% increase week-on-week [26] - Second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities totaled 204.5 million square meters, reflecting a 3.5% decrease week-on-week but a 717.5% increase year-on-year [35]

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of the "Tax Law Principle" and its implications for service industries such as internet and finance, indicating that current tax arrangements are unlikely to change significantly in the short term [2][3][12] - The real estate sector is experiencing a favorable shift in financing policies, with REITs and private placements opening new equity financing channels to alleviate financial pressures on real estate companies [3][13] Tax Law Implementation - The State Council approved the "Implementation Regulations of the Value-Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" on December 19, 2025, and subsequent announcements have clarified tax details, suggesting stability in tax arrangements for service industries [2][3][12] - The definition of "basic services" in telecommunications is evolving, with mobile data and internet broadband still classified as "value-added services" subject to a 6% VAT rate, while traditional voice services are recognized as "basic services" with a 9% VAT rate [2][3][12] Real Estate Sector Analysis - The financing environment for the real estate industry is improving, with a shift from debt financing to equity financing, including the introduction of REITs and private placements [3][13] - Recent regulatory changes, such as the gradual retreat from the "three red lines" policy, indicate a more supportive financing environment for real estate companies [13] - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate sector, highlighting the potential for recovery in the industry as financing policies become more favorable [3][13] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several quality real estate companies for investment, including China Jinmao, Poly Developments, and China Resources Land, among others, due to their potential for recovery and attractive valuations [13] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving financing landscape and the impact of government policies on the real estate market [3][13]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 截至月份: 2026年1月31日 狀態: 新提交 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 中海物業集團有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02669 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 | HKD | | 30,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 30,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.001 | HKD | | 30,000,000 | 本月底法定/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the year-on-year performance of new and second-hand housing transactions aligned with the Spring Festival holiday, suggesting that the data may show significant changes in the coming weeks [11] - The real estate sector is viewed as an early economic indicator, making it a crucial area for investment as it reflects broader economic trends [4] - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4] - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities for investment opportunities, as this combination has historically performed better during market rebounds [4] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - In the latest week, new housing transaction area in 30 cities was 136.9 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 32.3% [23] - First-tier cities accounted for 40.3 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 6.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.0% [23] - Second-tier cities saw 64.9 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 24.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 29.8% [23] - Third-tier cities recorded 31.7 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 14.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 46.6% [23] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The total area of second-hand housing transactions in 15 sample cities was 211.9 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9% but a year-on-year increase of 15.0% [33] - First-tier cities contributed 93.8 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% [33] - Second-tier cities had 82.6 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.8% [33] - Third-tier cities recorded 35.5 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [33] Credit Bonds - In the week from January 26 to February 1, eight credit bonds from real estate companies were issued, totaling 4.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.73 billion yuan from the previous week [3] - The total repayment amount was 8.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.49 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing amount of -3.97 billion yuan, which is an increase of 2.76 billion yuan from the previous week [3]

CHINA OVERSEAS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LIMITED 中 海 物 業 集 團 有 限 公 司 （ 於 開 曼 群 島 註 冊 成 立 之 有 限 公 司 ） （股份代號：2669） 郭磊 吳溢穎 獨立非執行董事 容永祺 林雲峯 董事名單與其角色和職能 中海物業集團有限公司董事會(「董事會」)於二零二六年二月一日的成員載列如下﹕ 執行董事 張貴清 （主席） 肖俊強 （行政總裁） 甘沃輝 （財務總監） 非執行董事 M 有關委員會的成員 香港，二零二六年二月一日 蔡榮星 董事會設立 4 個委員會。下表提供每位相關董事會成員在這些委員會中所擔任的職位。 | 委員會 | 審核 | 薪酬 | 提名 | 可持續發展 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 董事 | 委員會 | 委員會 | 委員會 | 督導委員會 | | 張貴清 | - | M | C | M | | 肖俊強 | - | - | - | M | | 吳溢穎 | - | - | M | - | | 容永祺 | C | M | M | M | | 林雲峯 | M | M | M | C | | 蔡榮星 ...

大华继显发布研报称，预期中海物业(02669)2025年归属净利润将同比下跌9.5%，基于毛利率受压、工 程服务持续疲弱以及收款情况转差，抵销了收入增长。基于盈利预测下调及短期催化剂有限，该行将中 海物业评级下调至"持有"，目标价由7港元降至4.3港元。 同时，该行料全年收入同比增长5.4%，当中基础物业管理收入同比升9.9%，由城市服务业务快速扩张 所推动。不过，该行料社区增值服务及非住户增值服务收入将分别同比下跌8%及10%，主要受行业下 行及消费者开支更趋审慎所拖累。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Dahua Jixian expects China Overseas Property (02669) to see a 9.5% year-on-year decline in attributable net profit for 2025, primarily due to pressure on gross margins, continued weakness in engineering services, and deteriorating collection situations offsetting revenue growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a 5.4% year-on-year revenue growth for the full year, with core property management revenue expected to rise by 9.9%, driven by rapid expansion in urban services [1] - However, community value-added services and non-residential value-added services revenues are anticipated to decline by 8% and 10% year-on-year, respectively, mainly due to industry downturns and more cautious consumer spending [1] Group 2: Rating and Target Price - Based on the downward revision of profit forecasts and limited short-term catalysts, the rating for China Overseas Property has been downgraded to "Hold," with the target price reduced from HKD 7 to HKD 4.3 [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate sector as "Overweight" [4] Core Insights - The industry is expected to stabilize as supply decreases and quality improves, with new and old drivers working together to push the market towards a bottoming out [2] - Key cities are anticipated to find a balance in sales by 2026, although long-tail cities will continue to drag down overall performance, albeit at a reduced rate [2] Summary by Sections 2025 Industry Review - The industry faced a significant downturn in sales and investment, with actual sales area data falling below previous lower predictions due to overly optimistic expectations for third and fourth-tier cities [8] - The decline in new construction and investment was more pronounced than expected, with new construction area growth at -20.4% and completion area growth at -18.1% [10][24] 2026 Industry Outlook - The focus will be on high-quality development, with key cities expected to stabilize sales. The central economic work conference emphasized stabilizing the real estate market and encouraging the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [7][9] - Investment growth is projected to be slow, with construction area growth expected between -5.8% and -10.2%, and corresponding investment growth between -4.0% and -12.5% [10][11] - The report predicts that the sales amount for 2026 could vary under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, with forecasts of 2.6%, -4.9%, and -11.4% respectively [10] Policy Focus - The main pressures on the industry will stem from investment growth challenges, with expectations for interest rate cuts and asset recovery policies to support the sector [10][11] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the implementation of policies related to interest rate reductions, asset recovery, and urban renewal [10][11] Sales and Investment Predictions - The report provides a detailed forecast for 2026, indicating that the total sales area is expected to stabilize between 7-8 billion square meters, driven by improving demand and urban renewal initiatives [44][50] - The sales amount and land acquisition trends are expected to reflect a continued focus on quality and strategic development in key urban areas [50][55]

大华继显发表研报，预期中海物业2025年归属净利润将按年下跌9.5%，基于毛利率受压、工程服务持 续疲弱以及收款情况转差，抵销了收入增长。该行预计全年收入按年增长5.4%，当中基础物业管理收 入按年升9.9%，由城市服务业务快速扩张所推动，社区增值服务及非住户增值服务收入将分别按年下 跌8%及10%，主要受行业下行及消费者开支更趋审慎所拖累。基于盈利预测下调及短期催化剂有限， 该行将中海物业评级下调至"持有"，目标价由7港元降至4.3港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley predicts that China Overseas Property (02669) will experience a 10% year-on-year decline in net profit for the previous year, with a further 2% decline expected for the next two years due to profit margin pressure [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company is expected to raise its dividend payout ratio by 4 percentage points to 40% to maintain a year-on-year dividend per share that is flat, compensating investors [1] - The dividend yield is only 3.8%, which is less attractive compared to the industry average of 4.6% [1] - The company issued a profit warning, forecasting a 9% to 10% year-on-year decline in net profit, contrasting with the firm's and market's expectations of a 5% increase [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement of related party transactions in Q4 2023, the company's stock price dropped by 24% in a short period [1] - After the disappointing earnings report in the subsequent quarter, the stock price fell by 25% [1] - Since mid-2024, the company's earnings growth has returned to a positive trajectory, but the latest profit warning is expected to further damage investor confidence in the management's execution capabilities [1]