Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 47.40 CNY, down from the previous target of 52.56 CNY [2][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to exceed its annual output target with 6.24 million heads sold in August, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2024 [7]. - The company has a leading cost advantage in pig farming, with total costs decreasing from 15.5 CNY/kg in Q1 to 13.7 CNY/kg in August, primarily due to lower feed prices and improved farming metrics [7]. - The company’s debt ratio is expected to continue decreasing, with a current debt ratio of 61.81% as of the mid-2024 report, down approximately 1 percentage point from Q1 [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 124.826 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 110.861 billion CNY for 2023, and expected to rise to 138.653 billion CNY in 2024 [6][9]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.266 billion CNY in 2022, with a projected loss of 4.263 billion CNY in 2023, and a significant recovery to 24.015 billion CNY in 2024 [6][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 4.39 CNY in 2024 and 4.74 CNY in 2025, with a downward adjustment from previous estimates [7]. Market Data - The company's market capitalization is approximately 204.459 billion CNY, with a current share price of 37.41 CNY [3][2]. - The stock has traded within a range of 31.64 CNY to 49.35 CNY over the past 52 weeks [3]. Cost Structure - The complete farming cost is expected to reach 13 CNY/kg by Q4 2024, which is considered industry-leading [7]. - The company’s average profit per fattened pig is estimated to be around 600 to 700 CNY based on current farming costs [7].
牧原股份:养殖成本下降,利润有望超预期