牧原股份近日登陆港交所，成为国内生猪养殖行业首家实现"A+H"双上市的企业。作为全球出栏量最大 的养猪企业，牧原股份借此为其国际化战略搭建了投融资渠道，但也带来新的经营课题。 不过双线并行也有许多风险需要注意。中国企业资本联盟副理事长柏文喜提示，"A+H"布局需重点警惕 估值落差、监管差异、治理整合三类风险。港股机构投资者占比高，对生猪养殖等强周期、重资产、利 润波动大的行业估值显著低于A股，可能会导致H股股价表现低于预期，影响融资效率。两地在会计准 则、信息披露等监管规则上也存在差异，企业需调整财务与治理体系以适配港股要求，防范因合规问题 导致的股价波动或罚款。此外，国际投资者更看重公司治理与长期战略，牧原作为A股企业，过去更注 重规模扩张，整合过程中可能出现理念冲突，影响决策效率。 多家投资机构入局 牧原股份H股发行引入了多家机构作为基石投资者，正大集团、丰益、中化香港、香港豫农国际、富达 基金、高毅、平安人寿保险、UBS AM等机构均在列，涵盖国际产业龙头、全球顶级资产管理机构等多 元主体。基石投资者合计认购金额约53.42亿港元，占全球发售股份的50%。 下一步，牧原股份不仅需要适配两地资本市场在监管 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.02.14 猪周期：一轮去产能的大周期 [Table_Industry] 农业 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 林逸丹(分析师) | 021-38038436 | linyidan@gtht.com | S0880524090001 | | 王艳君(分析师) | 021-38674633 | wangyanjun2@gtht.com | S0880520100002 | | 巩健(分析师) | 021-23185702 | gongjian@gtht.com | S0880525040051 | 本报告导读： 我们认为 26 年猪价将低于市场预期，行业将进入亏损。猪周期将迎来一轮大的去产 能周期，股价也将迎来空间更大的上涨。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 农业《多家种企业绩回升，看好种植景气回升》 2026.02.01 农业《仔猪价格的秘密》2026.01.31 农业《玉米价格持续上涨，关注种植景气修复》 2026.01.25 农业《维持低 ...

本报记者 肖艳青 当前，中国养猪产业已迈入高质量发展新阶段，端牢百姓"肉盘子"的数量保障已坚实筑牢，产业发展重 心正从"保供给"向"提品质、优价格"稳步迈进，着力实现猪肉"物美价廉"，更好满足千家万户老百姓多 元化、高品质的消费需求。 新春佳节临近，猪肉作为百姓团圆餐桌上不可或缺的"硬菜"，其供应保障的稳定性、品质的可靠性与价 格的平稳性，始终备受社会各界关注，也成为守护新春幸福感的重要民生抓手。 近日，《证券日报》记者深入一线，探访猪肉产业从养殖到消费的全链条，对今年春节期间的供应保障 与市场消费新动向进行了深入调研。 价稳量足消费升级 春节临近，年味渐浓。记者来到河南省中牟县的万邦国际农产品批发市场，这里人流如织、交易繁忙。 "后腿肉多少钱一斤"？在万邦水产冻品区一个冷鲜肉批发摊位前，一位市民正在咨询猪肉价格。他向记 者坦言道，之所以跑这么远过来买肉，主要是因为这里的肉便宜，以五花肉为例，与市区里面的价格相 比，每斤能便宜三四元。 眼镜冷鲜肉批发店的销售人员对记者说："这里销售的猪肉主要来自牧原和双汇，供应充足，每天都有 肉品到货。且猪肉都是批发价，今年的猪肉比去年过年时候价格便宜。" 商超渠道亦是春节猪 ...

文 | 肖望编辑 | 孙春芳 出品 | 棱镜·腾讯小满工作室 泰国首富、正大集团资深董事长谢国民到访牧原集团。左为谢国民，右为牧原董事长秦英林。图源：牧 原集团官微 从河南南阳市内乡县的猪场到上市，秦英林走了22年。从深交所到港交所，秦英林走了12年。 2月6日，河南首富秦英林在港交所敲响铜锣，牧原股份登陆港股，完成"A+H"布局。 上市现场，秦英林、钱瑛夫妇和其子秦牧原（现任牧原集团副总裁）罕见公开同框，正大集团资深副董 事长兼中国区CEO杨小平到场。正大集团是泰国首富谢国民家族的产业，其常年赞助的《正大综艺》成 为一代国人的综艺启蒙，正大集团还是牧原股份此次赴港上市最大的基石投资者。 牧原股份已成为我国乃至全球最大的生猪养殖企业，秦英林、钱瑛夫妇常年稳坐河南首富宝座，在最新 的胡润百富榜上，以1870亿元身价排名全国第16位，泡泡玛特王宁家族以1820亿元身家紧随其后。 养猪是我国农民最普遍的增收渠道，但在2000万养猪户中成就千亿身家的，仅有秦英林一人，大量养猪 户在猪价周期波动中或心碎离场，或随波逐流、利润有限。 完成港股上市后，秦英林新的野心是国际市场。 泰国首富助阵，牧原瞄准东南亚机遇 牧原股份在 ...

饲料原料：玉米、豆粕价格变化不构成养殖成本显著压力 1月我国玉米现货均价2364.6元/吨，环比+0.69%，同比+10.55%。结合价格走势规律以及潜在供需关 系，该行认为26年玉米价格以区间震荡格局为主，均价或略高于25年同期。1月我国豆粕现货均价 3198.97元/吨，环比+1.94%，同比+3.82%。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，持续重点强调生猪养殖行业的攻守兼备布局机会， 基 于能繁母猪作用值及养殖效率的考虑，26 年猪价同比下行，期间或有所反弹表现;综合考虑政策去产能 以及行业亏损去产能，重点关注成本边际变化显著、资金面良好的优质猪企，推荐牧原股份牧原股份 (002714.SZ)、温氏股份(300498.SZ)、神农集团(605296.SH)、天康生物(002100.SZ)。关注德康农牧 (02419)。此外可关注饲料龙头企业海大集团(002311.SZ)。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 12月CPI环比向好，猪肉现拖累效应 12月我国CPI同比+0.8%(前值+0.7%)，其中食品项同比+1.1%(影响CPI同比上升约0.21pct)，食品中猪肉 同比-14.6%。从环比来看，1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the stabilization and rebound of pig prices, with the January average price for external three yuan pigs at 12.68 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.58% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [8][21] - The "No. 1 Document" emphasizes the promotion of biological breeding industrialization, which is crucial for achieving self-sufficiency in seed sources and enhancing grain production capacity [19][20] - The pet food sector shows a positive trend, with December 2025 pet food exports reaching 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49% [35] Summary by Sections Market Review - In January 2026, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.63%, ranking 23rd among 30 sectors, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.65% [11] - The animal health sector performed well, while the forestry processing sector saw declines [11] Biological Breeding - The "No. 1 Document" calls for the implementation of actions to revitalize the seed industry and accelerate the breeding and promotion of breakthrough varieties [19][20] - The focus is on stabilizing grain and oil production and enhancing yield levels [19] Livestock and Poultry Data Tracking - Pig prices showed a rebound in January, with a tight supply supporting price increases [21] - The average price of white feather chickens rose to 3.73 yuan/jin, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% [28] Pet Food Exports - Pet food exports maintained a year-on-year growth, with total exports for 2025 reaching 361,300 tons, a 7.78% increase [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulaike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Holdings, as the industry’s price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios are below historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [8]

2026年2月，牧原股份成功登陆港交所，成为全球最大农牧企业IPO，募资超百亿港元。 短债长投的"走钢丝"游戏 牧原股份的资产负债表始终笼罩在千亿负债的阴影之下。截至2024年末，公司总负债仍高达1101亿元， 尽管较2023年峰值1213亿元有所下降，但短期偿债压力却不减反增。 招股书显示，公司一年内到期的有息负债达602.7亿元，创四年来新高，其中短期借款453亿元，而现金 及现金等价物仅128亿元，短期偿债缺口超过325亿元。 《眼镜财经》注意到，更严峻的是公司债务结构的期限错配。由于生猪养殖行业特性，活体生猪与租赁 土地上的猪舍难以作为有效抵押物，导致公司无法获得充足的中长期贷款。截至2025年11月末，公司短 期借款占比高达70.3%，净流动负债达171.07亿元。 这种"短债长投"的激进财务策略，使得牧原股份在猪周期波动中如履薄冰——一旦猪价下行导致经营现 金流收缩，巨额短债的滚动续命将成为致命考验。 尽管牧原股份在回复深交所问询时强调"流动性风险可控"，并列举337亿元未使用银行授信及控股股东 100亿元借款额度作为安全垫，但过度依赖外部融资输血而非内生现金流改善，本身就暴露了重资产商 业模式的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the stabilization and rebound of pig prices, with the "No. 1 Document" reiterating the importance of biological breeding [8] - The report emphasizes the significance of the biological breeding industry for achieving self-sufficiency in seed sources and enhancing grain production capacity [19][20] - The report indicates that the industry is currently undervalued, with price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios below historical averages, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [8] Summary by Sections Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index rose by 1.63%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 1.65% [11] - The animal health sector showed strong performance, while the timber processing sector lagged [11] Biological Breeding - The "No. 1 Document" emphasizes the need to promote the industrialization of biological breeding, which is crucial for achieving self-reliance in seed sources and enhancing grain production [19][20] Livestock Farming Data Tracking - In January 2026, the average price of pigs was 12.68 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9.58% but a year-on-year decrease of 19.52% [21] - The average price of white feather chickens rose to 3.73 yuan/jin, with a month-on-month increase of 1.36% and a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [28] Pet Food Exports - In December 2025, pet food exports reached 37,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.49%, while the total export value for the year was 1.41 billion USD, a decrease of 4.62% [35] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Pulike, Qiule Seed Industry, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., and Petty Co., as they are expected to benefit from the industry's recovery [8]

Group 1 - The consumer sector is experiencing a pullback, with the leading consumption ETF (159928) slightly down by 0.13% despite a trading volume exceeding 300 million yuan and a net inflow of 6 million units [1] - The upcoming 9-day Spring Festival holiday is expected to boost consumer spending, with government initiatives planned for 2026 to support the replacement of old consumer goods with new ones during this period [3] - The liquor sector, particularly Moutai, is showing strong sales performance as the peak season approaches, with prices for Moutai products increasing significantly compared to the previous month [5] Group 2 - Financial Street Securities highlights that the food and beverage sector is crucial for domestic demand, with policies aimed at boosting consumption expected to help the sector recover from its current low [6] - The service consumption sector is anticipated to see price increases driven by policy support and changing consumer behavior, with a focus on emotional value and health-oriented products [8] - The travel service sector is projected to experience strong demand growth, with hotel prices expected to rise as supply and demand dynamics improve [9]

声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 2月13日，800现金流ETF汇添富（563680）开盘跌1.42%，报1.317元。800现金流ETF汇添富（563680） 重仓股方面，中国海油开盘跌2.93%，上汽集团跌0.14%，格力电器涨0.00%，中远海控涨0.00%，牧原 股份涨0.00%，中国铝业跌1.82%，TCL科技跌0.22%，宝钢股份跌0.28%，长城汽车涨0.05%，正泰电器 跌1.04%。 800现金流ETF汇添富（563680）业绩比较基准为中证800自由现金流指数收益率，管理人为汇添富基金 管理股份有限公司，基金经理为何丽竹，成立（2025-04-30）以来回报为33.50%，近一个月回报为 5.17%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...