Muyuan Foods (002714) 开源证券·2025-04-26 15:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth in pig sales and a decrease in costs, leading to strong performance in the first quarter of 2025. The revenue for Q1 2025 reached 36.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.49 billion yuan, up 288.79% [3][4] - The company maintains its original profit forecast, expecting net profits of 24.06 billion yuan, 28.73 billion yuan, and 37.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.40 yuan, 5.26 yuan, and 6.94 yuan [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 33.22 billion yuan from pig farming, with sales of 22.66 million pigs, marking a 41.52% increase. The total cost of pig farming for the first three months was 13.1, 12.9, and 12.5 yuan per kilogram, with an annual target of 12 yuan per kilogram [4][5] - The company has a sufficient breeding stock, with 3.485 million breeding sows as of March 2025, and a survival rate of 82%-83% for pigs [4] - The company's asset-liability ratio has decreased to 59.20%, with cash reserves of 23.566 billion yuan, indicating strong financial health [5] - The slaughtering business saw a significant increase, with 5.32 million pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025, an 81% increase, and the capacity utilization rate rising to 73% [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 147.02 billion yuan, 156.81 billion yuan, and 173.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 24.06 billion yuan, 28.73 billion yuan, and 37.93 billion yuan [7][8] - The projected EPS for the next three years is expected to grow from 4.40 yuan in 2025 to 6.94 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 9.1 to 5.8 [7][8]