Muyuan Foods (002714) 申万宏源证券·2025-04-25 10:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in Q1 performance, achieving a revenue of 36.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 37.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.49 billion yuan, marking a substantial turnaround from losses [7]. - The sales volume of pigs reached 22.66 million heads in Q1, up 41.52% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the sales of piglets, which surged by 595% [7]. - The company is focused on optimizing production metrics, with breeding costs decreasing to 12.5 yuan per kilogram by March 2025, driven by improvements in survival rates and weight gain [7]. - The company aims to expand its production capacity, expecting to sell between 72 million to 78 million pigs in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10% to 19% [7]. - The slaughtering segment saw an increase in volume, with 5.32 million pigs processed in Q1, an 81% increase year-on-year, although profitability remains challenged due to low product segmentation [7]. - The report forecasts revenues of 135.5 billion yuan for 2025, with a slight decline of 1.8% year-on-year, and net profits expected to reach 20.83 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 16.5% [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 135.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 20.83 billion yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 11 [6][9]. - The company anticipates a gradual increase in revenue over the next few years, with estimates of 141.86 billion yuan in 2026 and 147.31 billion yuan in 2027 [6][9]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 18.2% in Q1 2025 to 24.1% in 2025E, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6].